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This is why you don't bluff at 2nl

 
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This is why you don't bluff at 2nl - Sun Oct 09, 2011, 02:23 PM
(#1)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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My flop call maybe a little questionable, but I had just lost with aces vs kings for the third consecutive time and I hate donk bets. You can't probably understand my thought process (or lack thereof) at this moment.
 
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Sun Oct 09, 2011, 02:38 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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I'd be putting the opp on my friend list. There were both straight and more likely, a flush out there from the board. I'd think he called your bet with a K... which is a really bad call for that much $$ compared to what was in the pot. Their flop bet screams value bet with a K or a made flush on the turn, especially with a check on the turn when the third club hits (if hit the flush, they'd check/raise the turn).

More often than not, you'll get no value with that type of bet on the river. The only hand that would call it is a flush. Normally the best you can hope for a K to call with is about a 3/4 to pot size bet.
 
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Sun Oct 09, 2011, 03:41 PM
(#3)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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At 2nl you might get a call from deuces.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 02:28 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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KJ, KT, sets, Q9, 97 are all calling. Probably JT, J8 as well. And if he'll stack off with one pair, nice value.

And no, you can't fold in position to a donk bet on that flop.

Personally I think you need to bet the turn, with a gutshot to the nuts as well as a 2nd nut flush draw. Too often you miss and dump on the river, and too often you hit and didn't build a big enough pot and people generally aren't calling 5x pot bets on the river or so I thought... You bet the turn because he's shown weakness by checking and to build a pot if he calls.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 03:49 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hamburgularaid...

This is the sort of hand you really need to have a PLAN for when you start, and also when you need to recognize the TENDENCIES of your opponents. If you are not doing this even at the 2NL level, you are NOT using all the skills in your poker "tool box" properly. Consider...

If you START with the assumption that the villains at this 2NL table will NEVER fold (hence you are loathe to try any bluff or semi-bluff bet or raise), then why are you not playing "fit or fold" with your AQ, and DUMPING to the 77% pot bet on the flop when you flop just a gut shot that has one of your 4 outs pretty "dirty"?

Against opponents who make the same mistakes over and over, especially mistakes involving calling too much and/or bluffing too much, you CAN show a small long term profit with a Tight Passive play style if that is all you want. The problem with this style is that it does NOT seek maximum value extraction, therefore you simply CANNOT deviate from an overall tight passive mindset and maintain any profitability even agaisnt extremely WEAK opponents. Calling the 77% pot bet when you MISS the flop completely and with little chance to MAKE the best hand, is a massive deviation form a Tight Passive play style, and if you make these CHASES you are cutting into your profit potential.

A more AGGRESSIVE approach could well see you calling on just the gut shot with 1 board over simply BECAUSE you feel if you do hit you will get paid handsomely, plus if you MISS you might have a chance to act aggressively on certain SCARE CARDS to win the hand by making the opponent fold. There is a material difference in how you approach the hand, and whatever the flop might bring you for that hand, between these 2 styles. That means it is up to YOU to decide BEFORE the hand starts how you intend to play it (have a "plan"), see?

Read what Oriholic wrote again: he is spot on for how an AGGRESSIVE APPROACH to this hand should work.

Just because you are aggressive does not mean you will win EVERY TIME, because I will agree with your assessment in general terms: versus players whose leak is CALLING too much, bluffing or semi-bluffing loses quite a bit of effectiveness. Your WORDS seem to be saying you are "justified" in your actions here, BECAUSE a tight passive approach can get paid off handsomely too...

Well Hamburgularaid, I am telling you here that you DID make a "mistake" somewhere in this hand, and where that mistake lies depends upon whether you are TRYING to be tight passive or tight aggressive in this hand:

If you are being tight passive because opponents never fold, so you are going to let them bet themselves into oblivion and call ONLY when you have a strong chance of holding the best hand, your MISTAKE lies in calling the flop bet. that line leaves you totally card dependant, with a very SLIM chance of making the best hand. It is far better to fold a MINIMAL loss than trying to eke out a possible win through luck; wait for a better flop to call.

If you are trying to be tight aggressive, then your mistake lies in not betting your 2 way draw on the turn when it is checked to you. As Oriholic stated, FAILING to bet there means the pot size will be SMALLER if you do happen to spike, thus preventing you from getting maximum value whether the villain calls a river bet or not. It also prevents you from winning this hand EXCEPT by making the best hand.

See how getting caught between the 2 styles, taking a bit from one and a bit from another, can lead you toward GREATER overall loss of value?

(Side Note: You must also understand that while a tight passive style CAN work at the micro stakes, if you do not move BEYOND that style when you begin to face more aware opponents, you WILL stop showing long term profits. This means "fear" of being aggressive at the micro stakes is a totally invalid reason for NOT being aggressive, and the ONLY valid reaosn for playing tight passive is because you are SATISFIED with small profit potential, and do not intend to move up to play agaisnt more aware players.)

Last edited by JDean; Mon Oct 10, 2011 at 03:53 PM..
 

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