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Weird Spot with AQ in EP

 
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Weird Spot with AQ in EP - Mon Oct 10, 2011, 02:06 AM
(#1)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Final table of 27 man SNG, we are on the money bubble, which I had not considered and played no role in my thought process here.

"Tygrme" Has been fairly lose and passive, his preferred play is to limp into pots, but I have not seen him go to show down without a solid hand. I have seen him just call a raise preflop with KK from the BB and check call 1/2 pot bets 3 streets on an A high board, he won this hand by hitting runners to a K high flush on the river where he checked down as did his opponent. I also have seen him limp QJ from LP and flop the absolute nuts, where he bet 1/5 of the pot on the flop and called a shove on the turn. I've seen him call bets on the flop and check/fold to another bet on the turn a few times, which I assume was 2nd or 3rd pair type hands, or maybe peeling with over cards, I don't think he thoughts go deep enough to be floating with the intention of stealing the pot. He also recently doubled me up calling 18% of his stack AIPF with KQs. I have not seen this guy take a line like he did in this hand.

"peachfuzeatr" Mix of LAG and LP seems a little crazy with his willingness to bluff if you show him weakness. Very active player, raises a wide range preflop, limps frequently as well and has a wide calling range preflop, seems to call raises pre with his marginal connectors, low PP's, weak Aces and Kings while reraising big Aces and Kings and his med to high pairs. Recently limp called me all in with JT when I held AJ to double me up and get me to my current chip stack. I've seen him go to SD frequently seems to be stubborn with pairs, he has SD TP and SP multiple times, he has also made it to SD with 73s which goes to show he has a very wide range. When he goes to SD he usually the aggressor, willing to bet those TP and SP hand's, also has been caught bluffing when it was checked to him more than once, has tendency to over bet pots as well with both value hands and bluffs.

After being doubled up by both villains I have a stack size I can make my std open (2.5x) with so I decide to go that route holding AQo from UTG. AQ is a solid value hand and I usually play it every time here, which may not be the best because my raise is unlikely to win me the pot uncontested.

What do you guys think?

I get called by both villains I described above as well as by the BB, 4 to the flop. Solid flop for TPTK so I make a fairly std sized C bet a little less than 1/2 pot which I fully expect to win me the pot most of the time here. However I get 2 calls, which could mean a lot of things. Weaker Q's, sets, flush draws I believe are in both my opponents range. I feel "peachfuzeatr" is going to be much wider here, he could have complete air, he could have a pair of 7's, he could have 2 pair as well. At this point I'm not sure where I stand, but feel I'm ahead most of the time.

Kc hits the turn, don't think this really helps much except KQ, and K7 or "peachfuzeatr" if he decided to peel with Kx. Even though I don't think this card helped much, I decided to check because I could already be beaten on the flop and I have not yet crossed the 1/3 commitment point yet so I want to be able to fold if I get some heavy action. I got some action but I wouldn't call it heavy. "Tygrme" decides to fire 450 into a 3,780 chip pot, "peachfuzeatr" calls making it 450:4680, 10.4:1 pot odds, I tanked for a while and called. At this point I'm confused and have no clue where I'm at "Tygme" has done this the nuts before so he could have very strong hand but In general weak bets mean weak hands so I just don't know. Im not all that worried about "peachfuzeatr" he has had 2 chances to raise postflop and has just called both times, he is the type of player that would raise this bet with a better hand than what I hold, he could still have a flush draw, but I'm leaning toward weak 1 pair hand which I'm beating.

Getting 10.4:1 and given reads is this a clear call?

River completes a flush draw which I think is in "peachfuzeatr" range and he bets it like he has it I don't want to go broke here and I felt I could be beat and I had "Tygme" still to act so I fold.

Is this easy fold for you?

Any thoughts on my play, what I could do better, what I did well? All comments welcome.

PokerStars Game #68743484146: Tournament #452727363, 300+20 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2011/10/09 21:20:37 PT [2011/10/10 0:20:37 ET]
Table '452727363 3' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: peachfuzeatr (16030 in chips)
Seat 4: juanmillo33 (4305 in chips)
Seat 5: castelar2011 (5780 in chips)
Seat 6: PaidInFull6 (6025 in chips)
Seat 7: Tygrme (3200 in chips)
Seat 9: REBL10 (5160 in chips)
juanmillo33: posts small blind 75
castelar2011: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PaidInFull6 [Qd Ac]
PaidInFull6: raises 225 to 375
Tygrme: calls 375
REBL10: folds
peachfuzeatr: calls 375
juanmillo33: folds
castelar2011: calls 225
*** FLOP *** [2s 7d Qs]
castelar2011: checks
PaidInFull6: bets 735
Tygrme: calls 735
peachfuzeatr: calls 735
castelar2011: folds
*** TURN *** [2s 7d Qs] [Kc]
PaidInFull6: checks
Tygrme: bets 450
peachfuzeatr: calls 450
PaidInFull6: calls 450
*** RIVER *** [2s 7d Qs Kc] [3s]
PaidInFull6: checks
Tygrme: checks
peachfuzeatr: bets 14470 and is all-in
PaidInFull6: folds
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 02:44 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I am thinking Tygerme has you beat...maybe AK/KQ.

Cannot really see him leading with the info you provide on a pp under the flop Q, cannot see him calling the raise pre with a JTs (nor really leading even small with a monster draw but only 1 to come), KK/AA I could see but you hold the A as a blocker to the AA and KK would just sick. So my most likely ranging is AK/KQ, followed by KK, then AA...then lesser pp.

I also think the read you have that the big stack has the flush COULD be spot on, but his propensity to bluff does not necessarily make that a certainty; I think you may be seeing a scare card bluff here a decent amount of the time, especially since his is big stacked and could be exploiting the bubble.

A flopped or turned set is probably un-likely as he might take the lead earlier, and if he stuck around on anything that made 2 pair with the river 3 god bless his widdle heart! Q7/K7 are probably way loose even for this type (unless they were sooooted maybe), so I'd think the order of possibilites I'd rank peachfuzeatr on would be: Rag single pair K's, all hands WEAKER than your AQ 2nd pair (including bluffs), Rivered flushes (especially something suited with a 7 in it, I ranked this lower than "bluffs" because he may well want to extract value for his chase...but this hand is close to his bluff frequency I'd think ), then 2 paired hands+ (lower than flushes, had he improved somewhere).

SO...

Your river fold is solid.

As is your raise with AQ pre...

As is your flop lead for just a bit under half pot when you flop top/top.

For the turn call...

Normally I'd say check/calling when a pretty tight/passive player suddenly wakes up and bets is BAD, but if you DO improve on the river, a check may get you a big bluff shot from Peachfuzeatr that gives you quite large implied odds value to call that 450 (near to the balance of your stack, or about 4.5k more for the risk of a 450 call).

Of course Tygerme's tight range is a bit scary if your improvement comes in the form of an A (as it might make him a better 2 pair), but if Tygerme DOES improve to better when you improve, then you will see enough overlay from Peachfuzeatr to just about break even. That is plenty reason enough to to do this, as there will be some of the time Tygerme has KQ, and you make aces up, and take down a big "run deep" chip up....

While the total investment for this try IS quite stiff (almost 25% of your stack), being on the bubble and facing the chip stacks you are facing at the table does not mean losing 1500 or so will KEEP you from getting ITM. So even though your chance of improving is quite SMALL, the fact you'd still have 30BB, and a near certain ITM locked up, would tilt me toward going for the BIG implied odds here.

...even though I will not realize that all too often, and even though it is not really a "clear" decision.

To be really honest, I do not want to give up on the chance of a BIG chip up for just 450 more, not after I've already invested 1110; you COULD, but as long as it does not cripple me to the point I CANNOT get ITM without extreme luck, I don't like doing that...

Peachfuzeatr is gunna keep me around tho...

Last edited by JDean; Mon Oct 10, 2011 at 03:01 AM..
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 04:40 AM
(#3)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Should have included in my read on "Tygerme" that he has also called into pots like this and folded the flop or turn a few times, the only hand he called into the pot and got to SD was KK. SO I thought he was probably a little loose calling raises pre.

I think your ranging makes a lot of sense but in game I was really unsure of where I stood or what to do but I believe I was behind Tygerme's range for sure now. I couldn't think of a hand he could have that I could beat except QJ or QT, but with my read I didn't think he would bet those hands. I thought I was probably behind and made a stubborn call without a strong feeling whether my outs would even be good or not, like you said JD an A could be a disaster if he held AK as well a Q if he held KQ. Its really hard for me to find a fold in this spot, not because I thought the big stack might try one of his spew bluffs, which is a good point, but rather because the pot is laying me such huge odds. I believe this could be a leak for me, when my opposition make these small bets in relation to the pot I hate folding top pair or second pair and tend to make stubborn calls because the pot is laying me such large odds even though reads/actions are telling me I'm beat.

Also, the risk of calling to try and improve is very high here, I'm really not even comfortable playing for stacks on this board with Top 2 so if I hit it and hold the best hand I don't think I'll even get full value for it.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 04:43 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
the idea of playing for stacks with improvement here is not a problem (or shouldn;t be)...

That is why I put in the LATER stuff. I'll re-iterate though...

It is PEACHFUZEATR keeping you around.

If you improve on the river, would you be willing to play for stacks against HIM with 2 pair+?

Based on your read, the answer should be yes, yes, YES!!!!

If Tygerme had MORE chips, then he becomes a real worry for you here, but he doesn't.

If you WIN versus Peachfuzeatr on your river improvement, but LOSE to tygerme, you are very near to breaking EVEN for the try.

If at least SOME of the time Tygerme may have a LESSER hand than your improvement (such as KQ if an A hits the river), then there is enough chance you will win against BOTH to make the stand on river improvement ok.

Best case river improvement wins you both stacks, 2nd best is you win versus PeachFuzeAtr and LOSE versus Tygerme and break even, While worst case is you check see Tygerme JAM and Peachfuzeatr fold...but even in that spot you can consider dumping at least some of the time.

So just don't lead the river on any improvement, thus giving Tygerme a chance to jam and Peachfuzeatr the chance to FOLD...rely on Peachfuzeatr's "leak", excessive river aggression, to create the best situation for you.

See?
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 06:37 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
In my experience AQ and "weird spot" seem to come together a lot. It can be a trouble hand.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 09:07 PM
(#6)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I see what your saying JD I would be willing to play for stacks vs PachFuz if I improved my hand and he went crazy on the river.

Yeah I'm starting to feel the same way about AQ Joe it i can be very difficult to play well.
 
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Mon Oct 10, 2011, 09:20 PM
(#7)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
In my experience AQ and "weird spot" seem to come together a lot. It can be a trouble hand.
+1 Joe I almost always am folding it in EP, but if you are going to play I would do as paid did and raise it, just saw they were 6 handed so it is a much stronger hand now
 
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 12:46 AM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
In my experience AQ and "weird spot" seem to come together a lot. It can be a trouble hand.
The exact reason Doyle likes that hand of any poker hand.. the LEAST!
 

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