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Two Pair vs. flopped set

 
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Two Pair vs. flopped set - Tue Oct 11, 2011, 07:52 AM
(#1)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Hi there. Just played this hand in a tournament. The preflop caller just recently trippled up with shoved 55s in a 3 way shoved pot (she was last to shove).



Sure I also don't have to shove there, but it's definitely no fold spot (isn't it?) and I don't think I can lay this down on the river. What do you guys think? Big mistake or does these cards play thereselves?

Thanks,
Yannick

Last edited by Schnech; Tue Oct 11, 2011 at 08:32 AM.. Reason: Used the replayer
 
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 01:43 PM
(#2)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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she calls the preflop raise, then she check calls ur first barrel and checkraising the turn. ok u hit 2 pair but u are not commited yet and i think u have to worry about a set at tha point. it probably would be a hard to do lay down but she just smelled u hit ur ace and leaded u to a point of no return!!!
 
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 03:27 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
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check/call on the flop means that they hit something (A, set or spade draw). Check/raise on the turn without a spade hitting should rule out the spade draw, leaving either a big ace or a set. You've got a big ace that turns into 2 pair on the turn (which makes the odds of them having a big ace alot less, as there are only 2 other aces out there).

I definitely would not have pushed back on the turn, if I wanted to keep playing the hand, I'd have just called their check/raise and re-evaluated on the river.... which is what I'd have done in a cash tourney, unless it's right at the bubble, in which case I'd muck to be sure to cash.

If it was a league tourney, then I'd have definitely mucked to the check/raise, figuring they probably had a set and would want to try to last as long as possible in it (and by folding, you still have about a 30BB stack, which will not leave you as a short stack).
 
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 03:46 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/ <= See this.

You face a turn C/R after putting aobut 21.5% of your chips into the pot (before the C/R).

If this villain's leak is over valuing hands, it is quite possible he holds something like A9/A2/Q9, and the "improvement" he is C/R'ing now is LESS than the improvement you've seen. The play of the 55 hand may well be the sort of info you need to lean toward AT LEAST a call of the C/R to 2750, and since that call puts you well past 30% in, your actual action (the shove) is really not a bad idea at all.

But what if you are wrong? What chance do you have to "catch up"?

I am not saying versus a very loose player you can find an EASY FOLD here, not by a long shot. But if you've seen indications that this villain's skill set may not be very advanced, then a C/R semi bluff is pretty unlikely. It is also more likely that he does not know about "value extraction" with hands like 2 pairs (non top 2), but a LOT of beginners and less skilled palyers have heard about (and seen) a slow play of a flopped set. That means if he is less skilled, the one play he is probably making here is a slow played top set...

Now...

With all that said, I do not think your stack is really deep enough to let you get away here at all, unless youa re going to immediately fold to that C/R. That might be a tad "weak" versus this player if he has shown ANY propensity toward bluffing. Plus...

As I stated above, if you are going to CALL for another 20% or so of your chips (putting you over 40% invested), you may as well SHOVE them in on top 2 and make your stand; there may be ENOUGH reason to suspect this guy is lighter than you and your improvement is enough to want to make that stand.

Were you on DOUBLE your chip stack, then I'd say your jam over the C/R was a bit too in-cautious; I'd advocate a flat of the jam, and probably a check down if the villain tries binking you for another C/R, OR a call of small to medium size river value bet by the Villain...but you were not on double the stack size here.

There is nothing so expensive in poker as a good, but 2nd best, hand.
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 03:14 AM
(#5)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Thanks guys! That really helps a lot.

I thin you are right that the c/r from a player with not much in his skill set is a very obvious tell. I will consider this the next time!

Greetings,
Yannick
 

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