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Should I Have Avoided this Risk Early in Tourney?

Should I Have Avoided this Risk Early in Tourney? - Tue Oct 11, 2011, 11:16 AM
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
The following hand occurred at the 2nd blind level of a 45-man SNG. Did I make a correct call?

Tue Oct 11, 2011, 01:32 PM
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
i think u just have bad luck here!! ok it's early and players tend to overvalue but the only hand u realy have to fear here is AA. and after the go around u are only with the vilain so heads up against QQ!!!

i probably followed the same path! just shame of that river
Tue Oct 11, 2011, 02:09 PM
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
The only time I would be folding Ks was if I had a definite read on the villain as a super nit who only played Aces, even then I would still probably call .

Winning at holdem is about small edges, and if you do not apply those edges, then you are not playing your best poker. As wopke said the only hand you should fear is Aces and I would probably add AK as well, even if you thought your opponent had either of those hands, then I still think it would be a mistake to fold.

In the event you had the better hand, and just got unlucky with the river. I would also say that in ring games luck tends to even out over time but in a tourney and sitngos you need some luck as well as skill to run deep. One piece of bad luck and your game is over, with the exception of rebuy events, off course.

Tue Oct 11, 2011, 02:21 PM
matt0278's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 65
standard call crappy river never fold KK pre unles there is 8 people all in in front of you
Tue Oct 11, 2011, 03:32 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,787
absolute snap-call for me. There is only 1 hand you're behind and the best the opp can hope for if they don't have AA is to hit a 2-outer (or they need multiple cards to beat you).

The river was really unlucky, as you were about an 82% favorite preflop and a 96% favorite going to the river (and I'll want every chip I have in a pot where I'm that far ahead).

You made the correct play and if you keep getting your chips in with that much of an advantage, it WILL pay off for you in the long run.
Tue Oct 11, 2011, 04:38 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
There is 1 hand which has you in "bad shape" of all the various 2 card start hands in hold 'em.

SOMETIMES the villain here will wake up with that hand, but far more often than not he will NOT have that hand.

Any time he does NOT have AA here, you are roughly a 70/30 favorite to double up (at least) versus that single player, and are far better than even money versus 2 players to TRIPLE UP.

The advantage of making that large a chip up so early in an event so far outweighs the risk of loss here that you simply should NOT pass up the chance very often at all.

To put it another way:

KK, since there is only 1 hand which has it at a significant dis-advantage pre-flop, benefits GREATLY from playing as large a PRE FLOP pot as possible.

Once the flop comes, KK will more often than not be "just" a 1 pair hand, albeit an over pair to the board usually.

If you WAIT to get your value in until the flop (assuming you CAN get much more of the value potential in pre-flop), then you run the risk of either a "suck out" occuring OR cards which do not improve your opponent ENOUGH to allow you to get that value later on. Neither is good for you at all...

So when faced with a JAM, even on extremely deep money, KK has gotten the "big" pre-flop pot it wanted, so why would it consider folding?

This is an obvious call, and after that it is all down to luck.
Tue Oct 11, 2011, 11:08 PM
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Thanks so much, everyone.

After busting out, I was mentally replaying the advice "be risk averse early in the tournament", and wondered whether I had taken an acceptable risk.

It's nice to know that everyone agrees I made the right call.

Last edited by ILuvPoker77; Tue Oct 11, 2011 at 11:10 PM..

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