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Flush draw and a weak strghit draw

 
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Flush draw and a weak strghit draw - Tue Oct 11, 2011, 03:54 PM
(#1)
Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
BronzeStar
hi guys, im new to this fourm and its accely my first post,
been watching this fourm for a while and anjoying the profesional hand anlysis.

i would be happy to get a feedback on a hand i was involvd (how could i play it better?)


fold pre flop ? fold post flop ? good post flop call ?
(i knew i was way behind in the flop strghit\set\two paiers something like that )

here is the hand - thank you :]


PokerStars Game #68820123922: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2011/10/11 14:35:10 ET
Table 'Kilia III' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: papjo ($1.46 in chips)
Seat 2: messi8843 ($0.90 in chips)
Seat 3: valeryglusch ($0.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Ibag123 ($2.26 in chips)
Seat 5: STTASONNOFF ($2.71 in chips)
Seat 6: WinterDust ($0.61 in chips)
Seat 7: AlekseyU ($2.44 in chips)
Seat 8: poquerin517 ($1.57 in chips)
Seat 9: xavi4ever900 ($1.09 in chips)
valeryglusch: posts small blind $0.01
Ibag123: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ibag123 [Qd 8d]
STTASONNOFF: calls $0.02
WinterDust: calls $0.02
AlekseyU: folds
poquerin517: folds
xavi4ever900: folds
papjo: folds
messi8843: folds
valeryglusch: calls $0.01
Ibag123: checks
*** FLOP *** [Td 7s 9d]
valeryglusch: checks
Ibag123: bets $0.06
STTASONNOFF: calls $0.06
WinterDust: folds
valeryglusch: raises $0.52 to $0.58 and is all-in
Ibag123: calls $0.52
STTASONNOFF: calls $0.52
*** TURN *** [Td 7s 9d] [Ah]
Ibag123: checks
STTASONNOFF: bets $0.36
Ibag123: calls $0.36
*** RIVER *** [Td 7s 9d Ah] [Th]
Ibag123: checks
STTASONNOFF: bets $1.75 and is all-in
Ibag123: folds
Uncalled bet ($1.75) returned to STTASONNOFF
*** SHOW DOWN ***
STTASONNOFF: shows [Tc 6c] (three of a kind, Tens)
STTASONNOFF collected $0.69 from side pot
valeryglusch: shows [Jh 8c] (a straight, Seven to Jack)
valeryglusch collected $1.73 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.54 Main pot $1.73. Side pot $0.69. | Rake $0.12
Board [Td 7s 9d Ah Th]
Seat 1: papjo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: messi8843 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: valeryglusch (small blind) showed [Jh 8c] and won ($1.73) with a straight, Seven to Jack
Seat 4: Ibag123 (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 5: STTASONNOFF showed [Tc 6c] and won ($0.69) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 6: WinterDust folded on the Flop
Seat 7: AlekseyU folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: poquerin517 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: xavi4ever900 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
Old
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 05:02 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
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I like the check preflop and the 6 cent bet on the flop (you've got an OESD and a flush draw). When the opp raises that much, while yes, you have draws, you have to know you're behind in the hand.

The first thing you need to look at, is what would the opp bet so much with that flop. I'd be ranging them with the nut flush draw (which would compromise your flush if you hit it), a set, 2 pair, a made straight, or a higher OESD (QJ). At 2nl, anyone that is used to those tables probably won't bluff that much in this situation, as they know the opps could stay with anything.

The only hands you can draw to are a straight or a flush and thier range could easily have either one of them dominated. The only things you could beat, IF you hit the turn or river, are 2 pair or a set and then they'd have outs to draw to a full house (which they could then easily stack you).

Due to that, I'd have mucked to the large raise on the flop and tried to get my $$$ into a better situation).
 
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Tue Oct 11, 2011, 05:51 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
He has slightly BETTER than an OESD for that facet of his hand...

He has a "special" kind of OESD: one with a "top end blocker card"

Having Q8 here, on a 79T board, a LOT of people could hold an 8 for the OESD draw (as well as holding a made straight of course). However, YOUR hand is "special"...

If the J comes, you do not hold a J high straight (like anyone else with the same oesd), you make a Q hi straight. this extra value means you are much less likely to CHOP if a J comes, as opposed to a hand like K8s or A8s.

While ultimately this is not a HUGE value increase (afterall, you still gotta hit), it is significant to notice.

I'll be back a bit later to weigh in with my overall thoughts on this hand, ok?
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 12:41 AM
(#4)
Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
BronzeStar
...
 
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. - Wed Oct 12, 2011, 12:41 AM
(#5)
Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I like the check preflop and the 6 cent bet on the flop (you've got an OESD and a flush draw). When the opp raises that much, while yes, you have draws, you have to know you're behind in the hand.

The first thing you need to look at, is what would the opp bet so much with that flop. I'd be ranging them with the nut flush draw (which would compromise your flush if you hit it), a set, 2 pair, a made straight, or a higher OESD (QJ). At 2nl, anyone that is used to those tables probably won't bluff that much in this situation, as they know the opps could stay with anything.

The only hands you can draw to are a straight or a flush and thier range could easily have either one of them dominated. The only things you could beat, IF you hit the turn or river, are 2 pair or a set and then they'd have outs to draw to a full house (which they could then easily stack you).

Due to that, I'd have mucked to the large raise on the flop and tried to get my $$$ into a better situation).
wow i have to tell you, you gave me a very good prespeciv on the hand,
and after reading what you said its seems like an easy fold on that spot (wich wasnt very easy on the table).

p.s

it crowsed my minde that if a flush card will hit the fiver i can easly be beat by an higer flush draw,
but i ignored it,(all i as thinking is "i can make a S.flush...lets go for it" )

ty for your reivew
 
Old
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. - Wed Oct 12, 2011, 12:46 AM
(#6)
Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
He has slightly BETTER than an OESD for that facet of his hand...

He has a "special" kind of OESD: one with a "top end blocker card"

Having Q8 here, on a 79T board, a LOT of people could hold an 8 for the OESD draw (as well as holding a made straight of course). However, YOUR hand is "special"...

If the J comes, you do not hold a J high straight (like anyone else with the same oesd), you make a Q hi straight. this extra value means you are much less likely to CHOP if a J comes, as opposed to a hand like K8s or A8s.

While ultimately this is not a HUGE value increase (afterall, you still gotta hit), it is significant to notice.

I'll be back a bit later to weigh in with my overall thoughts on this hand, ok?

ok thank you, looking forwerd for this
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 03:23 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Pre-flop:

You get to see the flop for free, and this is never a bad thing really.

Flop:

When you flop the oesd with the 3rd nut flush draw, leading for 6c into the 8c pot is just fine.
If you can take it down without spiking one of your many outs, that is great, and if not, all your outs are enough to make you a solid "math favorite" over any 1 pair hand.

The problem starts when the short stack jams...
what kinds of hands have you seen him push on before?

If a good part of the time he is likely to jam a 1 pair hand like top/top or an over pair, as i said you are math favorite over those.
If he will ONLY jam 2 pair+ hands here, you have somewhere between 15 outs with 46.5 unknown cards(versus something like a T9), and 11 outs with 44.5 unknown cards (versus EXACTLY Jd8x). That gives you an equity range of between 64.5% and 49.4%.

Note: normally one does not consider cards held by the opponent when calculating your outs. But in the case here, you can effectively make a case for considering your "worst possible" hand being a very specific hand for the villain; That being Jd8x. Since you are considering your "worst case" outs ONLY if he holds that specific hand, for your worst case to come to pass, you'd "know" he has those specific cards. That means 1 of your 9 flush outs are "gone", so you have 3 Js and the remaining 8 diamonds to make a better hand. If you did NOT have the Q8 with the over card blocker, you would only have the 8d outs for the win, and 3 Js for the CHOP...see why that over card blocker becomes important?

Since you know you will be just under 50/50 equity as a WORST CASE, you can certainly make a case for staying in this pot.

(note: JWK is right, you might be facing a better flush draw. That would counterfeit your flush draw outs, but leave you with your 6 straight outs, PLUS 6 pair outs to hit your 8 or Q. The worst case of a counterfeitted flush draw is an A7d or K7d, which still leaves you the live oesd outs and 2 overs to the paired 7...see? That is still 12 live outs with 46.5 unknown cards, for a 51.6% chance to draw out. 51.6% lies between our best case of 15 outs and our worst case of a flopped straight that steals one of our flush outs, so it is not worse for us than what we already know as our worst scenario.)

BUT...

If you CALL, you may see someone else come along too.
If you allow that to happen, you run the risk of only getting to see 1 card, and being bet OFF your draw.
This means you should NOT have allowed STTASONNOFF to stick around without paying MORE for the chance...

You should have RAISED the all-in, not flat called it.

The pot was 72c when the all in occured, rather than flatting the 52c all in, had you RAISED it in the neighborhood of 75c more at least ($1.27 to go), STTASONNOFF would have only had a bit over 80c left in his stack if he called. That means you could have confidently fired the REST of his stack all in on any turn into a now "bloated" pot, and lived or died on the outcome. He would have felt extreme pressure unless the turn had improved him...see? so you probably get a fold by comitting yourself with what stood to be the best math chance to win on the flop, see?

Essentially, when you have the greatest chance to make your draw, when that draw is a very STRONG ONE with a near 50/50 chance to suck out on the flopped nut straight, you have no worries at all about any hand STTASONNOFF might CALL your raise with, right? At the WORST, you will have better than a 50/50 chance to draw out on him if you make a bet which commits you here (if he calls), and if he folds ANY "made" hand, you do not need to worry about whether you hit or not...right?

You see Ibag, when you cALL you leave yourself only 1 way to win the pot: by holding the best hand on the river.
but when you bet or RAISE, you give yourself another way to win: by exerting a "threat" on a better, but still vulnerable, hand thus making that hand FOLD.

In this spot, the quality of your draw was enough to want to play a big pot with 2 cards to come after tha short stack calls all in.
But if you do not play that draw AGGRESSIVELY, you leave yourself dependant upon hitting your draw to win the hand versus anyone with ANY pair who stays in the pot too. Since the all in cannot charge you more, you do not mind playing for his stack with your strong draw, but the OTHER player you left in COULD (and did) charge you more...

when the turn did not hit your draw, you had much LESS of a chance to win that you had on the flop.
when the river did not hit you, you had to FOLD when the remaining player jammed all in.
He essentially was "allowed" to build a small side pot consisting of YOUR MONEY, when had you raised, you might have pressured him out and only lost the amount of the all in when you missed your many MANY outs.

See how falling to "pull the trigger" with a raise at the right time can cost you MORE?

Last edited by JDean; Thu Oct 13, 2011 at 03:42 AM..
 
Old
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 03:37 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Note to OP:

if you do not know why I am expressing your unknown cards as 46.5 or 44.5, this is why:

On the flop, there are 2 cards to come.

if you only "know" your 2 cards, plus the 3 flopped cards, that leaves 47 unknown cards.
if you see the turn card, and does it does not hit you, you now have just 46 unknown cards.

since your GOAL is to ensure you get to see BOTH those cards (or it should be your goal), you have 2 chances to hit any of your outs. The AVERAGE of the unknown cards on the turn and the river are the numbers I showed. EXAMPLE:

You hold a flush draw on the flop.
There is an all in you are thinking of calling.
If you call the all in, you are guraenteed to see both the turn and the river.
your flush draw gives you 9 outs.
2 chances at those outs give you 18 chances to hit.
on the turn there are 47 unknown cards.
on the river there are only 46 if the turn did not hit you.
That means the equation to calculate your chance to hit is:

18 (your outs on each street, twice) / 46.5 (the average of the unknown cards on the flop and the turn) = 38.7%

See?
 
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Fri Oct 14, 2011, 08:02 AM
(#9)
Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Pre-flop:

You get to see the flop for free, and this is never a bad thing really.

Flop:

When you flop the oesd with the 3rd nut flush draw, leading for 6c into the 8c pot is just fine.
If you can take it down without spiking one of your many outs, that is great, and if not, all your outs are enough to make you a solid "math favorite" over any 1 pair hand.

The problem starts when the short stack jams...
what kinds of hands have you seen him push on before?

If a good part of the time he is likely to jam a 1 pair hand like top/top or an over pair, as i said you are math favorite over those.
If he will ONLY jam 2 pair+ hands here, you have somewhere between 15 outs with 46.5 unknown cards(versus something like a T9), and 11 outs with 44.5 unknown cards (versus EXACTLY Jd8x). That gives you an equity range of between 64.5% and 49.4%.

Note: normally one does not consider cards held by the opponent when calculating your outs. But in the case here, you can effectively make a case for considering your "worst possible" hand being a very specific hand for the villain; That being Jd8x. Since you are considering your "worst case" outs ONLY if he holds that specific hand, for your worst case to come to pass, you'd "know" he has those specific cards. That means 1 of your 9 flush outs are "gone", so you have 3 Js and the remaining 8 diamonds to make a better hand. If you did NOT have the Q8 with the over card blocker, you would only have the 8d outs for the win, and 3 Js for the CHOP...see why that over card blocker becomes important?

Since you know you will be just under 50/50 equity as a WORST CASE, you can certainly make a case for staying in this pot.

(note: JWK is right, you might be facing a better flush draw. That would counterfeit your flush draw outs, but leave you with your 6 straight outs, PLUS 6 pair outs to hit your 8 or Q. The worst case of a counterfeitted flush draw is an A7d or K7d, which still leaves you the live oesd outs and 2 overs to the paired 7...see? That is still 12 live outs with 46.5 unknown cards, for a 51.6% chance to draw out. 51.6% lies between our best case of 15 outs and our worst case of a flopped straight that steals one of our flush outs, so it is not worse for us than what we already know as our worst scenario.)

BUT...

If you CALL, you may see someone else come along too.
If you allow that to happen, you run the risk of only getting to see 1 card, and being bet OFF your draw.
This means you should NOT have allowed STTASONNOFF to stick around without paying MORE for the chance...

You should have RAISED the all-in, not flat called it.

The pot was 72c when the all in occured, rather than flatting the 52c all in, had you RAISED it in the neighborhood of 75c more at least ($1.27 to go), STTASONNOFF would have only had a bit over 80c left in his stack if he called. That means you could have confidently fired the REST of his stack all in on any turn into a now "bloated" pot, and lived or died on the outcome. He would have felt extreme pressure unless the turn had improved him...see? so you probably get a fold by comitting yourself with what stood to be the best math chance to win on the flop, see?

Essentially, when you have the greatest chance to make your draw, when that draw is a very STRONG ONE with a near 50/50 chance to suck out on the flopped nut straight, you have no worries at all about any hand STTASONNOFF might CALL your raise with, right? At the WORST, you will have better than a 50/50 chance to draw out on him if you make a bet which commits you here (if he calls), and if he folds ANY "made" hand, you do not need to worry about whether you hit or not...right?

You see Ibag, when you cALL you leave yourself only 1 way to win the pot: by holding the best hand on the river.
but when you bet or RAISE, you give yourself another way to win: by exerting a "threat" on a better, but still vulnerable, hand thus making that hand FOLD.

In this spot, the quality of your draw was enough to want to play a big pot with 2 cards to come after tha short stack calls all in.
But if you do not play that draw AGGRESSIVELY, you leave yourself dependant upon hitting your draw to win the hand versus anyone with ANY pair who stays in the pot too. Since the all in cannot charge you more, you do not mind playing for his stack with your strong draw, but the OTHER player you left in COULD (and did) charge you more...

when the turn did not hit your draw, you had much LESS of a chance to win that you had on the flop.
when the river did not hit you, you had to FOLD when the remaining player jammed all in.
He essentially was "allowed" to build a small side pot consisting of YOUR MONEY, when had you raised, you might have pressured him out and only lost the amount of the all in when you missed your many MANY outs.

See how falling to "pull the trigger" with a raise at the right time can cost you MORE?
realy deep reivew, took evrything you sayed and i will sure make the rigght move next time with this kind of situation. thank you for your time mate :]
 

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