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NL2 (6 max) AT suited

 
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NL2 (6 max) AT suited - Wed Oct 12, 2011, 04:37 PM
(#1)
Lop The Flop's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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32 Hands - Hero: 28/24/3 - Villain: 41/0/2

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

(Q1) Should I just call or raise on the flop?

(Q2) Should I call or fold the turn?

(Q3) Should I call or raise villain all-in on the river?

Any comments or analysis would be most welcome. Thank you for your input.

Last edited by Lop The Flop; Wed Oct 12, 2011 at 04:40 PM.. Reason: Missed a question
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 05:36 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Raise flop intending to get it in.
Raise turn intending to get it in.
Raise river intending to get it in.
 
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just curies - Wed Oct 12, 2011, 08:30 PM
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Ibag123's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lop The Flop View Post
32 Hands - Hero: 28/24/3 - Villain: 41/0/2

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

(Q1) Should I just call or raise on the flop?

(Q2) Should I call or fold the turn?

(Q3) Should I call or raise villain all-in on the river?

Any comments or analysis would be most welcome. Thank you for your input.
"Hero: 28/24/3 - Villain: 41/0/2"

what re these numbers says ?
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 08:42 PM
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PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
On the flop I would prefer to just call. When villain limp calls a raise pre then donk bets the flop he usually has a J or better in that spot. Villain stats say he's Loose Passive, from my experience most of those types are also calling stations meaning that he's not folding TP even if you raise. Also if you just call and hit the club he'll probably still be calling with TP, so raising just serves to get your money in as in under dog when you can show a profit by just calling.

On the turn I think raising is just a spew, like I said he's probably not folding and now your a clear under dog vs what I would expect villain to show up with. This is another reason why I dont like raising the flop, if you brick you become a big dog. Getting 2.3:1 you have about 30% equity if villain has a J, you can still call and show a long term profit. Although 2.3:1 is right around break even odds for this call.

River I put villain all in. You make trips and are now beating all the J's in his range except the unlikely JT or J7, you called the whole way as an under dog and now you hit your hand it's time to raise.
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 08:44 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lop The Flop View Post
32 Hands - Hero: 28/24/3 - Villain: 41/0/2
First, with these stats, I really like the raise pre. This gives you the chance to fold out the worst of the open limper's range without any worry he spikes and you miss, and it also gives you the chance he will call for more with hands that are not at the very LOW end of his 41% limp range, but are still less than your ATs. You can also be pretty sure with these stats (assuming they are representing a decent number of hands) that any RE-RAISE by the limper has you in trouble; that makes a fold a lot cheaper than what it might cost you to bink a T on the flop if you run into JJ+! 32 is a bit short of a singificant number, but with a solid limp raise by the villain pre, it is stll plenty to muck ATs on...

PLUS...

The RR pre also makes your situation versus the 2 blind short stacks a LOT clearer if they CALL, then jam the flop especially on a C/R over a bet you;ve called.
Since both of those players have shorter stacks, if you limp along and flop just 1 pair, you might find it very hard to CALL a stop-n-go jam, even if you HAVE put more chips into the pot either by betting or calling a bet. By raising, if the pot goes 3 way, your decision is a bit easier, and you become a bit less bluff-able.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lop The Flop View Post
(Q1) Should I just call or raise on the flop?
This depends...

You ACTUALLY have 3 options: CALL, RAISE or FOLD. Let's look at each, ok?

FOLD:

With your pretty strong draw, the only way you really want to fold here is if the villain will NOT pay off our "risk" of continuing at all if a 3rd club comes.

Consider...

His half pot flop bet lays you 2.9 to 1 to call.
You really need about 4.1 to 1 to peel a card to hit the turn with correct pot odds (beause he will likely bet again on the turn if a club does not come).
This means your only valid reason to NOT FOLD is that you feel the villain will bet or call some additional amount if you DO hit your club.
The amount we "need" him to bet or call, in addition to what is in the pot, is about 12c to make a call or a raise of the flop bet appropriate.
This is how we figure that amount...

After his flop bet, the pot will be: 29c
Your decision is whether to call this 10c bet; you are getting 2.9 to 1 to call
You NEED 4.1 to 1 to call, so you must EXPECT the villain to put at least another 12c into this pot to "break even" on a call of his 10c flop bet.

If he will likely FOLD without adding that 12c with a lesser hand if a 3rd club comes (either on the turn or the river), then the risk/reward balance is not in your favor, and you should FOLD. See?

Of course by CALLING, you are building the pot to 39c. This means the villain would be receiving about 3.25 to 1 to call, or to make, a 12c bet, and he'd only need about a 30.8% chance that you are bluffing the flush (if he holds a decent 1 pair made hand) to break even by making that call. The STRENGTH of your flush (if you make it) is such that you could check behind a villain river check, and thereby induce him to possibly think you do NOT hold the flush, and make it more likely he pays you the 12c you need to break even by not folding.

All in all, the potential of your hand makes folding a pretty un-attractive option except versus the most "careful" opponents who will not call or bet anything if a 3rd club comes.

CALL:

This is an option if you DO feel the villain may check, bet very small, on the turn OR if he is prone to "light" 4Bets quite often. But it also fails to "take the lead" in the betting, and that might lead to a turn fold more often.

Consider...

Calling leaves you "card dependant", since the only way you can win by calling is if you make the best hand.

However...

This option also insulates you against a potential villain 4Bet on the flop.

A 4Bet by the villain here (over a raise by you on the flop) would effectively price you off your draw entirely, whether the 4Bet is made as a bluff or with a "real hand".
If the villain is highly aggressive post flop, then an immediate raise on the flop may prevent you from ANY chance of making the nut flush.
If the villain is a highly agressive type, then you are almost certainly going to see a turn bet of some sort whether you hit or not.
That gives you the additional money you "need" to have in the pot to peel the turn, and makes it less profitable for you to immediately fold or raise.
Against this type, a call is probably preferable.

BUT...

A flop call does not leave you with many options at all if you miss the turn and the villain bets any sort of standard amount.
At that point, unless he is likely to bet VERY SMALL (or check) on the turn, you are not going to see the 4+ to 1 pot odds you'd need to see the river.
This is fine if you are against a highly aggressive player; hitting the turn against his aggression leads him to bet enough to make the peel a good one.
But against any more "standard" aggression level, and more 'standard" bet sizing, a turn club is likely to "dry up" your action a lot more.

Finally, calling a flop bet means you do not give yourself any chance at all to fold out a WEAK "made hand" that your opponent holds (like K7/A5/J8) that are within a 41% open limp range, but that may be in trouble if they call a raise pre flop and on the flop. All of these hands are "ahead" of your draw, so you;d really not MIND if they fold, meaning you have no need to hit any of your outs, right?

LOOSE players, especially those who call raises oop too often then "donk lead" the flop too much on marginal hits, are the exact players who you should raise into on semi-bluffs after you raise pre flop. Not only might these opponents FOLD better hands that your draw immediately, but they are also the kinds who may CALL then check the turn, thus giving you an overall "cheaper price" for your draw.

So this means unless your opponent is highly aggressive, or likely to bet very small amounts (or check) the turn if you raise pre then call a flop half pot bet, you may be better off raising your flush draw with 1 over card.

RAISE:

Within the other 2 options we have pretty much covered the drawbacks of raising:

- you may get 4bet by some types and have to fold, thus losing any chance to extract alue from excess oppopnent aggression.
- you might cost yourself MORE than you;d have had to pay in total for your draw if you raise the flop into someone who tends to bet tiny amounts on the turn.

The POSITIVES of raising here are:

- you may get a "better" hand than your draw to FOLD
- you may out draw a better hand that CALLS your flop raise, thus making the value you get from that hit greater
- you may get a better overall "price" for the turn and the river by raising the flop than you'd get from just calling the flop bet.

Consider...

A RAISE here by you should be to make it between 25c and 35c to go.

That raise would express "strength" in your hand, since you would have re-raised both pre flop and on the flop.

Additionally, that amount is probably LESS than you'd pay if you called the 10c flop bet and made some SMALL turn improvement:
In that case you'd probably call the 10c on the flop, and build the pot to 39c.
If you spike an A or a T on the turn, aren't you MORE LIKELY to call 25c anyway into a pot of 64c?

So the "cost" of a raise on the flop is not going to be much mroe than what you;d call on a lot of turns, and it greatly increases the amount you might win.
That would lean me toward a flop RAISE expect against the very specific types I've out-lined above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lop The Flop View Post
(Q2) Should I call or fold the turn?
Depends...

We COULD be ahead now with that T, but the fact the villain made 2 reasonably strong bets makes that pretty un-likely (but possible).
If we are ahead now though, our hand does not really hold enough value to want to CALL a turn bet this size on just that hope (except against incredibly loose betting and very very bluffy opponents), so all our actions are pretty much based on us being behind. That means we must consider...

The pot after the villain's turn lead bet of 29c (74% pot) is 68c.
Your decision is to call 29c for a chance to win 68c immediately (2.35 to 1)
Your chance to spike the FLUSH is now just 19.6%, so you need a price of 4.1 to 1 to call.
This means you'll need to "win" a total of $1.19 to make a call of 29c now worthwhile.
68c of that is in the pot now, so to call and peel the river, you'd need to expect the villain will bet or call an additional 51c on a river club to break even if we ONLY count our flush draw outs at their full value of 9.

Is the villain loose enough to stack off another 51c of his remaining $1.13 if a club comes, and he holds less than a flush?
If he is, then just on the strength of the flush draw you are probably getting just about the right implied odds price to call.
If he isn't, then you have to re-assess the amount of improvement that T coming represents for you...

AT MOST, the T coming "adds" 5 live outs to your 9 flush outs (2 non club Ts, and the 3 Aces).
BUT...

If the villain holds an AJ, your A outs are "dead" to you.
Even though the results show this was the hand he held, we do not know that when we make our "discount" for the A outs.
We DO know there is a chance of it though, so we'd probably discount our 3 As outs to be "worth" around 2.25 outs for us.

There is also a chance the villain hit a 2nd pair (or a straight) on that T because it completed a possible straight he that didn't slow his betting at all.
the chance of that might be somewhat small, so we could probably discount our 2 Ts to be worth about 1.8 outs for us.

Up to this point, we have been giving ourselves full value for all 9 clubs as outs, but if the villain holds a set or 2 pair, the 5c or Tc might make him a boat and cost us a lot with our A high flush. this means we should also discount our 9 flush outs somewhat, and call them worth aobut 8.1 outs for us.

Adding all that up, we can guess the out value we now have is: 8.1+ 1.8 + 2.25 = 12.15 "live outs" out of our maximum of 14 possible outs.

12.15 / 46 = 26.4% chance to improve.
This means we need POT ODDS of 2.78 to 1 to break even on a call here.
With only 2.35 to 1 pot odds, we still need to have "extra value" from a villain bet or call to want to continue here.
The "extra outs", even after our discounting for "dirty out" potential, leaves us needing to win only a pot of 81c (without factoring our 29c turn call) to break even.
We'd need just 13c to be bet or called by the villain to break even, since we "improved" with the T on the turn.

If we CALL the turn bet, the pot grows to 97c.
Even if the villain CHECKS the river, we can probably expect we will get AT LEAST 13c of value in on the river if we do improve; he'd all but be FORCED to making a "crying call" for that minimal amount if we bet it.

With the villain having $1.13 behind if he CHECKS the river though, we cannot really bet JUST 13c and expect a call.
That would leave him $1 he could force us to CALL into a pot of $1.10 + $1 = $2.10.

If we spike just an A are we really confident he does not have a better Aces up hand or a set?
If we spike a T do we really want to run the risk of making a call and running into a boat?

With 2.1 to 1 on a call of a jam, we'd need to be "right" that he was triyng a bluff about 32.3% of the time to call...
I'd really prefer to make a river "value bet" more along the line of about 30c or so into the 97c pot if I improve, so that if he does jam, my decision to call will be far easier.

What all this means is:

I am almost NEVER RAISING this turn.

This is because versus the loosest and most aggressive opponents, even if my hand is the best now I do not have enough value to call a re-raise, so I would not want to re-open the betting to that possibility. Against the TIGHTEST opponents, I am probably well behind after they've bet 2 streets (and called a pre flop raise), so I am not going to want to put more value in for them in case I miss my outs; they stand to pay me enough "extra" value on the river if I suck out to not need a rush of that value in on a marginal 2nd pair hand.


I am ONLY going to call if I feel that I will get paid at least 30c MORE (either form a bet or a check/call by the villain) on the river if I improve.
If not I am folding.

Based on the improvement I have, and the fact the pot has grown pretty significantly, I think I'd lean SLIGHTLY towards a call here...

...barely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lop The Flop View Post
(Q3) Should I call or raise villain all-in on the river?
Depends... (you sensing a theme yet?)

How likely is the villain to play a set this way?
How likely is he to be 3 barrel bluffing the whole way?

Fact is, that T represents pretty good improvement to you, albeit not as much as a crad like the 8c would have.

Do you notice the bet sizing on the river?
The villain had started by betting right aobut half pot on the flop...
He then up'ped it to almost 3/4ths pot on the turn...
Then he fires just under 1/3rd pot on the river...strong/strong/weak...WHY?

A lot of folks will not do that with a set only AFTER making the boat (although it is possible), so that much smaller bet size means the villain does NOT have the boat as often as a more standard half pot bet might mean.
A set in an of itself is a strong enough hand that someone would feel little "need" to bet 75% pot on the turn, right?
This means you may well be clear to value raise more often with your trip Ts.

Without MORE info here about this villain's specific bet sizing tendencies, I think I'd REALLY lean toward a min raise of that 30c river bet.
Consider...

Since we have lessened the chance the villain holds a better hand than ours (or else why wouldn't he bet the river more confidently?), but we still we see a bet on the river, we can probably expect the villain has SOME value in his hand, right?

Since we improved to trips, the only hands we cannot beat now are sets (which have become boats), and a J high straight.
We out kick any lesser T with our Ace, right?

I do not think we'd do ourself any service by JAMMING over the villain's 30c river bet, since that might be the signal he was hoping for from us with his 30c river bet, and we'd see a FOLD by worse hands and only get called by better hands, right?

But what is we MIN RAISED, and made it 60c to go?

In that case, the villain may be torn between thinking we have a busted flush (that he was hoping we'd fold to his 30c bet), and thinking we have what we do have- better than his 1 pair hand. his 30c lead bet on the river built the pot to $1.18, so he would be getting almost 4 to 1 to call, and need only find us bluffing just over 20% of the time to break even. This can easily be a good reason for making the crying call with ANY 1 pair hand, and if he does that we make extra value we otherwise would not make, right?

We may ALSO see him jam the rest of his stack in on a futile last chance bluff versus what he perceives as "weakness". Obviously, we would not be folding for a 53c river bet into this pot with our hand EVER, so we call and get his whole stack here is he makes that "mistake".

If he folds, well at least we TRIED getting some extra value...and if he does hae a set, well at least we saw enough reason to think that at least SOME of the time he wouldn't, and took a risk...right?

Side Note:

The villain here makes a fundemental river "mistake" with a good, but somewhat vulnerable hand: he value bets weakly and fails to truly commit himself with ENOUGH value to be happy.

In this spot, his 30c is not getting called by you AT ALL if you air balled the flush draw, or stuck with gut shot straight outs like a 79, right?

If you have worse than a top pair hand, you would have been FAR better off dumping this way earlier, and not chasing down to the river at all. This means he cannot really make value with even a tiny bet if you hold just a flush draw with a 5 in it, or a naked 7.

About the only way you can pay off that 30c is if you hold a J with a K or Q kicker, and with that hand, the size of the pot dictates that after calling this far, you should probably call MORE than 30c, so he loses value THAT way too...

so if you are oop, in the VILLAIN's spot, your 1 pair hand may NOT be worth a river value bet, but with the hand the OP had here, and the info he could have used, a SMALL value bet with the intent of calling a shove, would have probably been perfectly good, and even BETTER than just flatitng the river.

hope this long spiel helps...

Last edited by JDean; Wed Oct 12, 2011 at 08:57 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 09:08 PM
(#6)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Great analysis JDean

But I'm wondering where you get the 4:1 odds number from?

When I PokerStove hero's hand vs what I expect villains range to be hero has 42% equity in this spot. Surely with that much equity you don't need 4:1 odds to make calling profitable. Mathematically we could be getting only 1.35:1 and calling would still be +EV.

92,070 games 0.003 secs 30,690,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 7c 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.934% 42.89% 00.04% 39489 40.00 { AcTc }
Hand 1: 57.066% 57.02% 00.04% 52501 40.00 { 77, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, J6s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J6o+ }
 
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Wed Oct 12, 2011, 11:41 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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your equity is if you are assured of seeing both the turn and the river. to analyze your odds, you will have to account for the fact the villain may bet again on the turn. If he bets LARGE enough, you may be priced off the turn.

there fore you do not consider both possible cards, but each one individually.

9 outs, divided by 47 unknown cards = 19.14% chance.

for a 20% chance of spiking, you;d need EXACTLY 4 to 1 pot odds to break even.

See?

if the villain would be ALL IN, and you are contemplating a call that binds you to call nothing further, THEN you would derive the full equity chance from seeing both the turn and the river if you call. That would be a simple matter of measuring the pot size vs your call size, and seeing is the roughly 38% chance you have to spike your flush is getting the right price to call...

(note: prior to the TURN call, with 1 to come, I did not account for any "secondary" outs from the A or the T coming in my considerations. In large part, at that time you do not yet know if an A or a T will be "good" for you if it does fall. You do, however, have pretty strong supposition a nut flush coming for you will be good :-) AFTER the T comes, then you really can look at lot harder at whether you have picked up some extra outs...see?)

Try running your calc using a "blank" card for a turn card. That will tell you the equity with 1 to come.

the difference between spiking the turn and spiking the river, when viewed individually is quite small (you divide by 47 unknown cards for the turn, and 46 unknown for the river, because if the turn does not hit you, there is 1 more "known" card). But if you look at your equity with a "false" turn card that does NOT help you, you will get a very close approximation of your chances to spike ON THE NEXT CARD.

Last edited by JDean; Wed Oct 12, 2011 at 11:54 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 03:13 PM
(#8)
Lop The Flop's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 13
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@ orihilic - You don't give much of an explanation, would you like to elaborate on your decisions?

@ Ibag123 - The stats are basically - call% / raise%/ aggression factor.

@ PaidInFull6 - Great advice, thank you for helping.

@ JDean - Very detailed analysis, thank you very much for spending so much time and effort on all the possibilities. I'm not sure I fully understand the odds and percentages, that is an area I will definetely need to improve on. On a lighter note - If I went through all those calcualtions, I'm absolutely positive I would have folded on the flop, as my time bank would have emptied.

Thank you everyone, your help is much appreciated.
 

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