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pocket 99's - Jack high flop

 
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pocket 99's - Jack high flop - Thu Oct 13, 2011, 10:42 AM
(#1)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

Recently moved to this table and read the villains raise as AK , when the flop came Jack high I decided to get it in with Pocket 99's





Tough I suppose , why would a person raise with J2s ? Im not happy with the way I played it at all - more in hope that the villain was bluffing (just about the only time I have done that) . I just can't seem to catch a good play recently .

Yesterday I had 2 full houses - holding pocket JJacks & pocket KKings busted by AJos full houses on the river ,

and plays like this next 1 are sapping my determination to raise :





I feel I have been trying to lose the minimum instead of winning the maximum but , I need to work on controlled aggression and identifying opponents & their tendencies .

From an out of form player , looking for a winning hand in the wrong places .

JARGON1977

Last edited by JARGON1977; Thu Oct 13, 2011 at 01:08 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 11:32 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I do not know how you came to the conclusion that the villian's cards were AK in the first hand, you cannot range that narrow. The check reraise on the flop is a sure sign he has a part of the board and that you are probably behind. As for playing J, many players will protect their blinds with ATC at this level.

As for the second hand, you just got a bit unlucky, but on very wet boards i would be trying not to bloat the pot and go for pot control unless I had the nuts. This guy could have had the A or 9, he could just as likely have a busted flush draw. At least you had the disciple to lay it down when you were likely beat. I would probably have called just to see if I was beat

I wish there were a magic formula I could pass on but if there is one tip I would offer, it is to get really good reads on your opponent's tendencies, this will allow to make better informed decisions and give you a better idea of where you are at.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
first hand... do not like the 3-bet shove at all with an over on the board along with a pair. Opp could very easily have AJ, KJ, QJ or A4 and if so... you've got 2 outs.
Shoving 99 with an over and a pair is NOT tight... it's actually pretty loose.

2nd hand, don't like the flop raise at all. The opp could very easily have a K with a better kicker than you... which means you've got 3 outs (the J's) at best. I like the bet on the turn with the 2 pair though. But, I agree you need to fold to the river putting 4 to a str8 on the board. I'd have put the opp on probably AK from the beginnning of the hand... so if so, they made their straight.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 02:05 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
First hand, what WORSE hands can call that?
What BETTER hands are likely to fold to such an over bet?

An over bet often signals weakness, because it deviates from the thought "bet to deny odds, but invite a call". If you are doing it with a very STRONG HAND, and the reason for doing it is because you are using higher "levels" of thought to get your opponent to THINK you are weak, it CAN be sort of a sophisticated "reverse bluff".

But when you're doing it with exactly the sort of hand your opponent would EXPECT you to do it with, you are leading him toward a CORRECT ACTION, where the opponent either calls with better or folds worse...see?

Both of these cost you value.

2nd Hand: Crap happens.

You cannot change a highly "ugly" river card coming for you.
All you can do is look at your decision process throughout the hand.

Jargon:

You seem to be falling victim a bit to "frustration"; or at least your side comments on these hands indicate that.

A suggestion (if I may)...

Some of your other hands that have been posted showed some pretty solid thought processes.
Some of your ANSWERS to hands others have posted have also shown a pretty solid grasp of things.

How about trying this...

For the next WEEK, you post NO HAND that you lose, UNLESS you also tell us in that post at least 2 reasons WHY the villain may have acted as he did.

Try to start putting yourself into the Villain' place in the hand, and see if you can find some REASONS for his actions.

Then, use those reasons to possibly forumlate a counter strategy to that way of thinking.

I tell you what, I will START you on the process by supplying a hand:

Situation:

You are in a large field, $4.00 BI MTT.
Blinds = 100/200
You are in the BB with a 3100 stack behind your posted blind.

It folds around to the BTN, who has 3600 in his stack.
He raises, making it 750 to go.

SB folds.

You look down and see AA.

You Re-Raise all in, mainly because:
A) The BTN is relatively tight, and has not tried stealing the blinds very often.
You determine this means he may have a hand with which he can CALL your all-in, so with the pre-flop nuts, you decide to get value in NOW if you can) versus that tight range, rather than wait, and possibly see your hand either out flopped, or cards come that dries up your action.

B) Any standard Re-Raise size has you past a committment point, so you may as well go all in NOW, instead of "waiting" to make a committing decision to a time when you may not hold the nut hand.

C) You feel the All-in may actually have a GREATER chance to be called by the tight raiser, because a clearly committing raise may well be perceived as GREAT strength in your hand, and result in tighter folds that you'd like.

All of this has pretty solid reaosning behind it, right?

The Villain CALLS.

He rolls over AKs.

Flop comes Kh 3d 6s
Turn comes 9c
River comes Kd

Now...

OBVIOUSLY the villain made a "mistake" in this hand; he called all his chips with a "weaker" hand than yours.
You still LOST though.

Your goal now is to find possible reasons WHY the VILLAIN may not have seen this actions as a "mistake".
.........

When you can begin to look at ALL your losses in this light, rather than looking at them in terms that are saying "OMG I LOST AGAIN! How can that MORON call me with that CHEESE and constantly WIN!", then you may have a strong tool for avoiding the negative effects of tilt on your game.

Hope it helps.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 03:24 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
Recently moved to this table and read the villains raise as AK , when the flop came Jack high I decided to get it in with Pocket 99's
Big mistake. Unless the villain has some sort of magical reraise amount for AK the best you can do is put him on a range of hands.

Quote:
Tough I suppose , why would a person raise with J2s ? Im not happy with the way I played it at all - more in hope that the villain was bluffing (just about the only time I have done that) . I just can't seem to catch a good play recently .
J2s is a great hand to 3-bet bluff. It's got a blocker to JJ which is one of the prime hands that would flat a 3-bet pre flop out of position. And it has almost no value against a 4-bet range so it's an easy fold and you don't feel bad about it. Of course it's not the best out of position, since tons of hands can flat a 3-bet in position.

Okay so you continued on that flop which isn't bad. He can have lots of worse pairs 55-88 but also better ones 99-TT, QQ-AA. Personally I still check behind because the preflop raiser checking this of all flops is extremely suspicious, and I hate to get check-raised off a hand with definite value. Anyhow he check-raises you, which means one of two things: he's bluffing or you're crushed. So now what? Fold, call, or re-raise?

Well, what happens if you re-raise? No worse hand is ever calling. Can a better hand fold? Possibly pocket 10s and maybe a weak J. So all your shove does is cause you to fold out his bluffs and weaker pairs and call with almost every hand that beats you. You are now allowing him to play perfectly against you.

If you think he's bluffing a lot here what's the best move? Well we've already seen it's NOT shoving. That was the worst. And clearly if he's bluffing a lot here folding can't be the best either. There's calling and making a smaller reraise remaining.

If you think there's a lot of bluffs in the villain's range the standard play is to just call him down. He's not calling you with worse and he's not folding better so the way to get value out of his bluffs is to let him continue to bluff you! By calling you allow him to continue bluffing, especially since he has first crack at the hand on every street.

Now if villain is thinking a little harder and realizes that you are likely to call down with marginal hands to get value from bluffs, he may actually see a RAISE as weaker if you are an aggressive player who likes to raise a lot. This board is so unlikely to hit either of you that a small raise can look like you're bluffing and leaving yourself room to fold. Against an aggressive thinking player who sees you as another aggressive thinking player you may be able to induce a 4 bet bluff! That kind of player will almost always have nothing or a monster when they 4-bet shove, and almost never show up with a hand of similar value to yours. This is a very advanced play though, and you definitely can't use it here.

If you think he's check-raise- bluffing, I would call. And yeah probably calling him down the whole way. Keep his range wide enough to include those bluffs.


2nd hand I would have raised a little more preflop. Other than that it looks fine. Ugly river. That 10 only completes gutshots though. And the only ways he really shows up with a straight here are AQ, A5, AK, AJ, AT, Q9, 95, K9, J9, T9, 98 and how many of those are really likely given the action? Can he possibly have a set? Pay attention to how the villain plays. Against some opponents this is a snap call, against others a snap fold, and against still others it's a tough choice. Can he be bluffing a busted draw or even turning a pair into a bluff? for instance is a possibility. Probably not as those types of hands don't play well on this board. Not really a ton of heart draws he can have that aren't a straight since the and are taken and any ace is a straight. Could he be spazzing with a weaker two pair? It's gross and it's hard to see how he really gets there, but there's not a whole lot you beat and not a lot of busted draws to bluff. He probably shows up with a hand like Q9 here, but if he's super passive AK-AT are totally possible.
 

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