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folding 2 pair on the river

 
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folding 2 pair on the river - Thu Oct 13, 2011, 01:22 PM
(#1)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Hello ,

The title is a little misleading , it's supposed to read 'Folding 2 pair on the river' .

I wonder if I'm doing the right thing folding in these spots , again no reads on my opponent (I shall do something about this , perhaps get a HUD) .





If I have to fold these hands I'm wondering what hands will I ever be winning - flopped nuts that doesn't get sucked out on the river it seems .

But I felt I was in the pot for only a little at that point and the raise was too big for my own 2 pair to be good - I thought the +EV play was fold (of course more info on my opponents will improve such decision making) - it appeared too much of a cash cow to stand up .

What do you reckon ?

JARGON1977

Last edited by JARGON1977; Thu Oct 13, 2011 at 01:35 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 02:21 PM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Folding is never +EV. It can be less -EV than calling, but it's never +EV.

This is a weird spot. When he makes that huge raise his range is pretty polarized to nuts or nothing. First question is does he bluff here? If not then his range is entirely nuts-type hands. This doesn't mean just the absolute nuts, but big hands that he thinks are the best.

The only hands that get there on the river are 33, 57, and 25. 25 is unlikely but 33 and 57 are totally in his range. Is it possible he slow-played a flopped set like 44 or 66? (Noting that since you have A6, 66 is really unlikely) What about other two pair combos like 64, 34, A3, etc that he may think are the nuts? There may be a lot of hands in his value range that you beat.

This is where it comes down to reads. How wide is his nuts range here? Will he ever shove a hand other than 57? Oftentimes a weak or passive player's nuts range will be something like two pair plus, or even top pair plus. They're not thinking about what hands will call and what hands will fold, they're just thinking they have a big hand and to get paid.

You only need to be right 42% of the time to make this call +EV. Some players will show up with a worse two pair here a lot! Some will only have 57 and maybe 33 or slow-played 44. An aggressive player might be bluffing with 76, 65 or 53, hands with a blocker to the nut straight--(of course the rest of the hand would have been played very differently).

So if you think the opponent will show up with worse than A6 42% of the time you can call. My guess is in this spot he has 57 a ton, and 33 a lot too and you have to fold. I don't think he has A4 or less 42% of the time when he jams the river like that.

Eh, I don't think a HUD's aggregate stats are really that helpful. Much more helpful is being able to recall the hands shown down and the betting patterns themselves. Is this player capable of bluffing? Does he generally semi-bluff or call with his draws in/out of position? Has he raised the river on a bluff? What kinds of hands would he take this betting line with? HUD stats are good for profiling players especially when you're multi-tabling.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 02:29 PM
(#3)
JARGON1977's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 66
Thanks for the reply .

Can you explain the calculations as to why I only need to be right 42% of the time ?
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 03:29 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Pot odds. There's $1.03 in the pot and you have to call 76¢ into a pot that will have 1.03+.76 after your call. .76/(1.03+.76)=.42
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 08:11 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by JARGON1977 View Post
The title is a little misleading , it's supposed to read 'Folding 2 pair on the river'.
Fixed
 

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