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A sticky spot

 
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A sticky spot - Thu Oct 13, 2011, 05:43 PM
(#1)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962


Some background first: German freeroll, down to last 300 or so, top 27 qualify, I am at the lower end of the field. I have been playing relatively tight but stealing some hands here and there. Although I have been at the table for some time I have only been to showdown once where I doubled up with AK versus AJ, against Joebego.

Homer and Pumas are both calling stations, they limp into virtually every unraised pot and will make small bets when they have a piece of the board, if they are reraised they are willing to go all in on second or third pair with weak kickers.

I have noted Joe be go, Amchy, reKaba and calvin as TAGs, bordering on nits, who will only play premium hands and have used this to my advantage in unraised pots.

Mokanu, who I have played against before is extremely patient, but a different type of TAG, quite willing to play suited connector type hands and is willing to get it all in with these hands when short stacked.

R3al: 2nd biggest stack and using it well, mixing limping with raising and very aggressive and active. I have noted however that he 4 bets with really strong opening hands, whereas he will limp or only raise 2 bets with more speculative hands. I have him colour coded as purple which for me is a very dangerous player.

To the pot itself. I limp in the hijack assuming that amchy and calvin will fold giving me the button in real terms. I expect R3al to call or raise depending on his holding. Joebego completes. The flop is checked round to me and I have second pair with a J kicker, I suspect at least one of the villians to be holding and slow playing an Ace and I make a half pot sized bet to try and narrow down the field. R3al is the only player to call my bet and i admit to being somewhat worried at this point

Turn brings a Jack to give me two pair, R3al checks and I am fearful of the straight and flush draws. I bet it strongly to try and get drawing hands to fold but maybe I bet it too strongly, maybe I give him the right odds, and he calls.

River brings a ten, one of the worst cards for me, and R3al, makes an immediate pot sized bet, that would put me all in. What do you think the right decision is here? What is the correct play? I made my decision right away but what would you have done?

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Thu Oct 13, 2011 at 05:49 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 05:55 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
2 pair against idiots is never good, they always river the str8
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 06:33 PM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
The preflop limp is reasonable, given the chips already in the pot and your reads on the players behind, but once the ace is up on the flop I dont think I want to be betting if I can see another card for free. Then it gets sticky. Lot of chips in and a biggish pot, against a player you rate. Probably given that we are so far back in the tourney standings I might go ahead and call and take the consequences, but I don't like how we got to this spot in the first place. With the number of BBs you have before the hand and the number of potential opponents, even with reasonable position, I do not like getting too involved to begin with.

Once we get to this point though, however reasonable it might be for the villain to have a Qx hand in his range, if so it is most likely lesser Qs not AQ/KQ/QQ but possibly QT/Q9... yeah..I think I am calling.

Tough to call but it is so read dependent, I think from what you have said I will take this spot on.
(Mind you I run like a dog just now.)

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 07:29 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hey Top, when you say he 4-bets with strong hands do you mean he 4x raises or that he re-re-raises preflop? 4-bet and 4x raise are two very different things. The first raise preflop is called a raise or a 2-bet. It is a 2-bet because the first bet is the BB. Re-raising is then a 3-bet, and reraising a 3-bet is a 4-bet. An open raise to 4BBs is not a 4-bet but a raise to 4x.

I'd rather raise in position preflop than limp at this stage. On 25 BBs you can still raise/fold.

On the flop you have second pair, which may or may not be good. It checks around to you. Bet or check behind? Everyone has shown weakness, so your hand just may be the best out there...but there are a lot of people in the hand and you're not likely to get called by much worse. If you bet and get raised you're obviously done with the hand. A bet makes sense as you don't need 66 making a set for free.

You say that you bet big on the turn to try to get him to fold a draw. Why?

On the turn I would either bet small, check behind or shove. In fact, anything but make a bet of that size. By making such a large bet you have committed yourself to the hand no matter the river.

Consider, checking behind. Now if the comes, you still have 22 BBs which is a perfectly playable stack. If a blank comes on the river you can still get value from all sorts of top pair hands.

Consider, shoving. If you really want draws to fold shoving is the way. You have a very strong hand at the moment and there are a lot of bad cards that can come on the river. Not only can they complete draws for the villain, but he may not be so happy calling with top pair if a scary card hits the river. By shoving you kill implied odds and don't allow him to freeroll you on the river with his draws. An unlike shoving with top pair bad kicker you might even be able to get him to commit here with a weaker hand than KJ.

Consider, making a small value bet that does not commit you on a bad river. If you bet around 2500 you can still get value out of lesser hands and straight draws. You may also induce a shove which you probably should call. However if he calls here the pot will be about 12k and you'll still have about 15k behind (19 BBs) and can maybe get away on the river.

Depending on my read on R3al I might choose any of those. If he calls loose I might shove, if he'll think my turn check looks weak like I'm giving up and will attack the river I might check, and if he'll think a weak bet looks weak and bluff-raise me on the turn, then I like a weak bet. I probably take the easy road and shove, as I can get called by a lot worse, and even if I don't I'm adding about 40% more to my stack.

With over half your stack in the pot on the river, you really can't fold. You set yourself up to get all the money in on the turn, and you just have to go with it. He could have or . Then again he could have KQ.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 07:50 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if it was me, I'd have checked the flop, then probably shoved the turn... if I was a lower stack in the tourney. That's a real sticky situation either way, though.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 08:21 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks so far guys.

I meant a 4x raise oriholic, I actually put in 4x in the original post but it came up with a spade sign so I changed it to bet; sorry for the mistake.

I am actually very interested in your comments on the turn play because I think you may have just identified a major leak in my game. On very wet boards where I have two pair, on the the flop or the river I nearly always put in a close to pot sized bet. My thinking is that if the villain is on a draw I want him to pay to see it, and that such a bet does not give him the odds to call. The problem is is that my maths on this are very weak so if he calls my bet I am not even sure if he is chasing the draw and if he is chasing the draw whether he is making a good play or a bad play. Surely if I make a small value bet, that not only gives him the odds to call but a reason to call since I have shown weakness, if I shove and he calls and hits his draw then I have lost my stack and I am out of the tourney.

Also when he shoves on the river I still have 20BB even though I have already committed over a third of my stack to the pot. I may have went beyond commitment point but is 20BB still not a playable stack?

Thanks for the input so far guys. I will post up the result tomorrow at some point.

TC
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 11:22 PM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Also when he shoves on the river I still have 20BB even though I have already committed over a third of my stack to the pot. I may have went beyond commitment point but is 20BB still not a playable stack?

Whoops, thought the BB was 800. 20 BBs is definitely still playable (you have good resteal fold equity anyhow). Still it sucks to be put in that spot and you need to be right such a small amount of the time it's hard (and probably wrong) to fold.

Quote:
Surely if I make a small value bet, that not only gives him the odds to call but a reason to call since I have shown weakness,
It doesn't really matter if you give him odds to call. You can still get value from his draws and weaker hands while keeping the pot small enough that you can get away on a bad river. Plus, since he's out of position and the bet looks weak, he may choose to check/raise rather than check/call with them. Also remember just because he hits his draw doesn't mean you have to pay him off does it? How many times have you rivered or even turned your draw only to not get paid at all?

Actually that's another point. If you have a weak hand what value is there in him resorting to trying to hit an unlikely draw? There isn't. If you're weak you're not going to pay off his draw anyway! If he thinks you're weak and has a draw he should raise the turn since it's pretty scary and he can still hit his draw on the river if he needs to. Now if this is the kind of bet you'd make with a strong hand THEN there is value in calling to try and hit the draw, since he's not going to make you fold and he likely will get paid off if he hits the river. Since weak bets generally mean weak hands being a little tricky here and betting a strong hand weakly may cause him to raise, polarizing his range. If he just calls, you're generally doing well, since your bet looks like a weak one pair he'll call with a lot of hands you beat, and as I said raise with a lot of air and his monsters.

Keeping the pot smaller allows you to fold if he shoves the river as an overbet. You can't fold when a shove is the same as a half pot bet.

Quote:
if I shove and he calls and hits his draw then I have lost my stack and I am out of the tourney.
That is nit thinking. If you shove and he calls with a draw you should be happy. Most of the time you win and take down a huge pot! Yes, sometimes you lose, but most of the time he won't improve. He can't even have ! (or any other hand). Sure sometimes he already has you beat with AJ or QT or even a set, but you're getting called by worse A LOT.
 

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