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Imediate vs. Implied Pot Odds.

 
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Imediate vs. Implied Pot Odds. - Thu Oct 13, 2011, 08:21 PM
(#1)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
So, I'm just trying to impliment pot odds into my play and I've been doing ok with imediate odds. but I'm pretty sure I'm made an error with the following fold when it comes to implied. I think I should have called, but I also know that if I had called I was pot commited.

What do you all think?

 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 08:27 PM
(#2)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Oh, I should also mention here, that I had recently exposed a very large, and very bad bluff, so I had almost 0 fold equity.
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 09:38 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Their bet looks like a value bet with a K. If they have AK, then you've got 9 outs (36% fav)... if they have any other K, then you have 12 outs(48% fav).

You would have to put 300 into a pot of 700, which is 42.8% of the pot... and right in the middle of your range.

The level you're at is way, way too early to try and bluff someone. Save those for later in the tourney, when you get more chips in the pot. Especially if this is a PSO game, bluffing this early is normally going to get you into deep, deep trouble.

If I was going to get into the hand in the first place, I'm raising pre.... and if so, I'd probably call the flop bet (but if you raise, you may get the opp to check, so you could then get a free card at the flush).
 
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Thu Oct 13, 2011, 11:46 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Honestly with on 10 BBs I'd probably just shove preflop, depending on the tournament. It looks like a SnG though, so folding might be better.

Definitely shoving on that flop though. No question. 100% of the time. You have 9 BBs behind! You don't even need fold equity for it to be +EV. You have a good enough chance of making the best hand against most ranges. You might even be against a worse flush draw!

And there's no point in thinking about implied odds on a 10 BB stack!

Implied odds is like, say there's 1000 in the pot and the effective stack is 15k. If villain bets 1k and you have a gutshot straight draw to the nuts, let's say QJ on a K983 rainbow board what should you do? Well, let's say you are damn sure villain has a set. So you know he's never folding. You need to hit a T to win. If you hit the T you are certain you can get all of villain's stack. The odds of hitting your T are somewhere around 10 to 1 against, and clearly your immediate odds of 2 to 1 don't cut it. BUT there is a lot more money behind! With 15k effective stacks you still have 15 to 1 implied odds! So you can make the 1k sacrifice, with the crappy odds you're being offered to try to hit your miracle card. Now if the river comes a T, he will probably still bet about the size of the pot and then you can ship the rest of the 15k, expecting to get called almost always.

But if we changed the effective stacks from 15k to 8k, we're now getting implied odds of 8 to 1, far short of the 10 to 1 odds of even hitting the draw.
 

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