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nl2: trips on a draw-heavy board

 
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nl2: trips on a draw-heavy board - Thu Oct 20, 2011, 09:23 AM
(#1)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
I've been running badly again the last few days and this hand is rather typical of what has been happening. I'd welcome feedback. Did I give the villain too much credit? Combinatorically, just how bad was the turn card? Should I have just overbet the turn, turning my trips into a semi-bluff? Or checked to try and induce a bluff? I do think I should have started working through the draw combinations in my mind as soon as the flop hit, so when the 9 came on the turn I already had an idea how much of his range had struck gold. Apart from that I am still struggling to see the wood from the trees on this hand.

This is first time I have managed to get a hand into the replayer, so hope this works:

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I was dealt a nice pocket pair and a loose player (48/30 from 50 hands by the end of the session) opened from under the gun. I put him on a wide range, including suited connectors and the like.

Villain's flop bet seemed likely to be a blocking bet for a draw, especially given the wet board texture, although I did wonder if he might have already hit something and be betting small so as not to scare me out of the pot. I went ahead and raised, not certain I was ahead, but hoping he would chase and miss his draw.

The turn card was a shocker. Obviously a lot of his drawing hands had now hit, but with so many combinations possible on a board like this, I was a bit overwhelmed as I tried to count the combinations and figure out just how likely it was that he had hit his hand. Essentially, I ran out of time and my small bet was a compromise as my clock ran out, not wanting to wave a white flag, nor commit too many chips.

Facing the raise on the turn, I gathered my thoughts again, calculated I had 10 outs for a full house or quads, and called. By this time I had conceded in my mind that he had a flush or straight, so folding to the all in on the river was pretty much automatic.
 
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Thu Oct 20, 2011, 10:47 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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that's a tough spot. I'm calling his turn bet too. You've got to put 40 cents into a pot of $1.63, or about 25%. You've got 10 outs (20% equity), so it's a bit high... BUT... if you hit, you're most likely doubling up for another $1.39. If you wouldn't be able to double, then it's probably a really tough fold, but since they hit something and you can double if you hit, I'm calling and seeing the river.

Totally agree that when you miss the river, it's a muck.
 
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Thanks - Thu Oct 20, 2011, 01:12 PM
(#3)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Thanks for the feedback. I'm glad you think I wasn't too far wrong in my play here.

The numbers puzzle me, though. Betting 40c into 1.63 I reckon I would only need 20% equity to be profitable, not 25%. And 10 outs on the turn is close to 22% (10 outs / 46 cards). Would that not make it a call even without the implied odds?
 
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Thu Oct 20, 2011, 01:31 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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i just did quick numbers.

40 cents into 1.63 is about 25% (.40 divided by 1.63) that you'd have to put into the pot

10 outs X 2% for the river gives you 20% equity

you want the equity that you have (20%) to be a higher percentage than what you have to put into the pot (25%). In this case, it's a little less, which means you shouldn't call it.

But, with implied odds for the rest of the opps stack, it works for me!
 
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Thu Oct 20, 2011, 06:35 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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With such a gross board on the turn, I'd probably just check it back, planning to call the ~40¢ river bet. Checking is not giving up, but managing the size of the pot. Obviously with top set you can't ever fold to his turn check/raise in position, with so many outs to a full house. He's representing something huge and you should have some nice implied odds. If he never bluffs and his value range is only straights and flushes, then by all means fold the river. It is pretty tough for him to have a straight unless he flopped it, as QJ is the only gutshot that really makes sense. Definitely a bunch of flush draws possible though. If he checks the river I might consider value-betting in case he has an overpair or smaller set. As you played the turn though, gotta fold the river. I'd be more likely to call with QQ than with TT here I think, because the QQ blocks QJ a bit, but again, if he's not bluffing you're dead.
 
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Fri Oct 21, 2011, 03:45 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
With such a gross board on the turn, I'd probably just check it back, planning to call the ~40¢ river bet. Checking is not giving up, but managing the size of the pot.
^^This
 

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