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This is pretty logical

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This is pretty logical - Fri Oct 21, 2011, 01:28 PM
(#1)
Coulter89's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 7
PokerStars Game #69308872287: Tournament #447029452, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level I (20/40) - 2011/10/21 13:07:17 ET
Table '447029452 723' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Sammy 648 (1500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: bodibodi1234 (1500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: Ray Luka MK (1240 in chips)
Seat 4: Marscho (1440 in chips)
Seat 6: 3anyda1707 (3420 in chips)
Seat 7: DIMOK8430433 (1260 in chips)
Seat 8: Coulter89 (1260 in chips)
Seat 9: yu.brikoff (4880 in chips)
DIMOK8430433: posts small blind 20
Coulter89: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Coulter89 [Ad Ac]
yu.brikoff: folds
Sammy 648: folds
bodibodi1234: folds
eldemente69 is connected
Ray Luka MK: folds
Marscho: calls 40
3anyda1707: raises 280 to 320
DIMOK8430433: folds
Coulter89: raises 940 to 1260 and is all-in
Marscho: folds
3anyda1707: calls 940
*** FLOP *** [Jd Kh Kd]
*** TURN *** [Jd Kh Kd] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [Jd Kh Kd Kc] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Coulter89: shows [Ad Ac] (a full house, Kings full of Aces)
3anyda1707: shows [Ks Ts] (four of a kind, Kings)
3anyda1707 collected 2580 from pot
Coulter89 finished the tournament in 7538th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2580 | Rake 0
Board [Jd Kh Kd Kc 8c]
Seat 1: Sammy 648 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bodibodi1234 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Ray Luka MK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Marscho folded before Flop
Seat 6: 3anyda1707 (button) showed [Ks Ts] and won (2580) with four of a kind, Kings
Seat 7: DIMOK8430433 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Coulter89 (big blind) showed [Ad Ac] and lost with a full house, Kings full of Aces
Seat 9: yu.brikoff folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I just love being an 80% favourite yet losing more then 80% of the time
 
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Fri Oct 21, 2011, 05:02 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
May i ask how big your sample size is that shows you lose 80% of the time when you are an 80% favorate.

When i go though and look at stats on Poker tracker it shows that my stats are about where they should be, which some times make me wonder if i'm playing the same site as the rest of you guys or maybe i just extra luck only losing with AA 1 time in 5.

Grade b
 
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Fri Oct 21, 2011, 06:14 PM
(#3)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
its easier to remember when you get bad beat than when your cards hold as they should... Dave posted about it, some kind of brain thing
 
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Fri Oct 21, 2011, 06:17 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,826
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
its easier to remember when you get bad beat than when your cards hold as they should... Dave posted about it, some kind of brain thing
I agree. That is definitely true (at least it is for me).
 
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Fri Oct 21, 2011, 06:40 PM
(#5)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I agree. That is definitely true (at least it is for me).
and I hardly remember my suckouts, and I know there have been lots
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 02:12 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Reading a bit about Kahneman and Tversky's "Prospect Theory" can lead to a lot of insight as to WHY some people tend to believe they suffer more bad beats than the norm.

In short, this theory states that when asked to estimate their chances of dying from natural and un-natural causes. The group significantly under-estimated their chances of dying from certain natural causes, and OVER ESTIMATED their chances of dying from un-natural causes.

This indicates that probably people give more attention to worrying about the unnatural dangers and not enough to the natural dangers.

Losing with AA seems "un-natural" so your "gut feeling" when it happens is that it occurs far too often. This quote:

I just love being an 80% favourite yet losing more then 80% of the time

Is a perfect example.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/prospect.htm
 

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