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Just Curious -- Would Others Have Folded Here?

 
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Just Curious -- Would Others Have Folded Here? - Fri Oct 21, 2011, 11:57 PM
(#1)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Background: This is a $0.25 45-man SNG. The player making the giant open raise is a relative newcomer to the table...I only have 23 hands on him, and he has open raised twice so far, the first time to 3x, and the 2nd to 5x. Both times the entire table folded.

Now this 9x raise comes out of nowhere, and I am stunned...I don't know what to think, but with my time running out, I finally decide I probably don't want any part of it, and fold my AQo.

Afterward, I kept wondering what could possibly have motivated this player to make such a raise. I couldn't figure out how to read it. If he had a monster, he should raise less so he can actually play it and probably win more chips than just the blinds. Otherwise, this is a blatant steal and he's risking an awful lot of chips -- if he wants to leverage fold equity, why not just shove?

If it was a steal, then it might have been foolish of me to fold, but at the time I was just baffled.

*shrugs*

I'll be interested to hear what others think.

~Luv

 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 12:02 AM
(#2)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
HOW DID HE PLAY AFTER THAT ??

 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 12:11 AM
(#3)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
IDK, but I've seen a lot of smaller pocket pairs played like this at this level. I'm not sure I'm folding AQ suited here, but I'll let wiser heads than mine figure this out.


Luv you should try some of the women's tourneys, I'm sure you would do well.
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 01:00 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Meh, with 27 bb's and little real info on the villain I think folding is fine. I wouldn't fault you for playing it either BUT if you play it flatting would be terrible, you'd need to 3b all in and take your chances.

I'd lean toward folding in a slow structure. I'd lean towards jamming in a turbo, or if the level is going up shortly.

Obv. with more info or reads on the villain, it might become a much easier jam or fold depending on what we learn.
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 01:15 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Can't say I see a problem with the fold absent any info.

Perhaps a clue in to WHY he might have made that big over raise...

You notice the BB's stack?

He is making sure the BB knows he is going to play for stacks if he wants to defend his blind.

Personally, I'd suspect that the raiser's hand is not necessarily a premium holding, or else why does he want to make it abundantly clear to the BB that he will be putting his tourney life at risk by playing? But I also strongly suspect he is on some sort of medium pp here (77/88/99/TT) that he really wants to signal to everyone ELSE that it won't be cheap for them to stick around. Of course it can just as esaily be AK, and he wants to ensure he sees all 5 cards vs the short stack if the shortie does "stand"...

I do not think he MINDS a "race" versus the short stack though, but he also doesn't want to sap the play-ability of his hand by raising smaller and seeing it go multi-way to the flop.

Obviously, this is MY supposition, and it could be entirely WRONG; we lack the info to say one way or the other. But given that you may be racing at best, it just isn't worth the risk.

Last edited by JDean; Sat Oct 22, 2011 at 01:22 AM..
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 01:24 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
IDK, but I've seen a lot of smaller pocket pairs played like this at this level. I'm not sure I'm folding AQ suited here, but I'll let wiser heads than mine figure this out.


Luv you should try some of the women's tourneys, I'm sure you would do well.
Good eye...

I too strongly suspect it is some kind of mid pp...

I've seen those kinds of hands over raise to "thin the herd" quit a bit.

That can be a bit of a mistake, as it generally leads to those hands getting called (or raised) by better, and folding out worse, but it definately is a pretty common tendency.
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 01:44 AM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I'd probably just shove. Usually this type of player has a small to medium pair or a couple of broadway cards or an ace. Big pairs and AK are also possible.

I think y'all are giving this player too much credit about thinking. He just sounds like a straight up donkey.
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 10:28 AM
(#8)
ILuvPoker77's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 84
Thanks, everyone, for your replies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hemetdennis View Post
HOW DID HE PLAY AFTER THAT ??

Pretty much garden variety TAG...didn't do anything remarkable, and didn't make another monster pre-flop raise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
Luv you should try some of the women's tourneys, I'm sure you would do well.
Thanks. I actually have played a few, and cashed a couple of times, but not in the top spots.

However, I do have mixed feelings about there even being a women's league, but that's neither here nor there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Meh, with 27 bb's and little real info on the villain I think folding is fine. I wouldn't fault you for playing it either BUT if you play it flatting would be terrible, you'd need to 3b all in and take your chances.

I'd lean toward folding in a slow structure. I'd lean towards jamming in a turbo, or if the level is going up shortly.

Obv. with more info or reads on the villain, it might become a much easier jam or fold depending on what we learn.
Thanks, Dave. It's good to have confirmation that flatting would have been bad.The idea of it definitely didn't feel right to me.

This was a slow structure, and as you pointed out, my stack was not doing too badly. I had time to pick up more chips in a less bizarre scenario.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
...You notice the BB's stack?...He is making sure the BB knows he is going to play for stacks if he wants to defend his blind.

Personally, I'd suspect that the raiser's hand is not necessarily a premium holding, or else why does he want to make it abundantly clear to the BB that he will be putting his tourney life at risk by playing?...Obviously, this is MY supposition, and it could be entirely WRONG; we lack the info to say one way or the other. But given that you may be racing at best, it just isn't worth the risk.
Interesting analysis. This is good information -- I think I just haven't seen this type of play enough to know what it might mean.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
That can be a bit of a mistake, as it generally leads to those hands getting called (or raised) by better, and folding out worse, but it definately is a pretty common tendency.
Again, good information.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I'd probably just shove. Usually this type of player has a small to medium pair or a couple of broadway cards or an ace. Big pairs and AK are also possible.

I think y'all are giving this player too much credit about thinking. He just sounds like a straight up donkey.
Even donkeys are thinking something, however erroneous it might be.
 
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Sat Oct 22, 2011, 12:01 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
the times that I've seen players make a bet like that, they've got some sort of marginal made hand. They'll play it against a short stack, but wouldn't mind taking the pot without showing.

I do agree with the others, that if you're going to play it, it's gotta be a shove... but if you don't have info on the opp, folding is an ok option too. If I did shove, the hand I'd be most worried about is AK... as the others should be a race.
 

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