Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

Hi PSO's,just wanted to share this hand,cooler? bad beat? utg risky play?

 
Old
Default
Hi PSO's,just wanted to share this hand,cooler? bad beat? utg risky play? - Sun Oct 23, 2011, 06:33 AM
(#1)
AAsKKin4abet's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 3
Well,
hi everybody ,just saying hi and a lil bout myself, my name is Gianni from Melbourne ,Australia , im a casual player, run deep in tournies,but just cant seem to crack a big one and atm am getting frustrated by it.
i deposit a few $ here and there, get my BR up to 150-200 then seem to hit a brick wall and drop it all. Then start all over again.
I want to improve my game, i can be ultra aggressive which i think hurts my game (eg folding TT utg +2 to a small blind 3 bet all in in late stage which i folded ,then next hand picking up JJ utg and getting 3 bet shoved from cutoff AK and calling off my stack and losing) .
Just trying to post a hand for analysis, its from a $1.10 $2k guarantee ,hope i do it right , 1st post, anyway ty and gl


Last edited by AAsKKin4abet; Sun Oct 23, 2011 at 06:41 AM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Oct 23, 2011, 07:34 AM
(#2)
ohjeohje's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 44
It depends if you are playing turbos or regular speed. Flipping is good when you are bigger stack and have decent pair holding. But sometimes folding 77-TT is good against big stack if you only invested little amount of your stack. You might get better spot later on.
 
Old
Default
Sun Oct 23, 2011, 08:34 AM
(#3)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohjeohje View Post
It depends if you are playing turbos or regular speed. Flipping is good when you are bigger stack and have decent pair holding. But sometimes folding 77-TT is good against big stack if you only invested little amount of your stack. You might get better spot later on.
Did I miss something?
All in with the nuts 1 card to come !
I am there with my Esky drinking Beer counting my Money.
 
Old
Default
Sun Oct 23, 2011, 10:07 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
from UTG, 9 10 suited's normally a muck preflop since you're out of position. From late position, different story. If you are going to play it, like the raise to 3BB with it, instead of limping.

Calling their flop bet is not too good of a play, here's why. You have to put in 1800 into a pot of 8250 (21.8 %). You're drawing to an inside straight, so you've got 4 outs, giving you approx 16% hand equity. You want the hand equity % to be higher than the % you have to put into the pot. If not, then it's a -EV play. In this situation, you can expect on average to lose 5.8% of your chips. Due to that, if you didn't muck preflop, it should be mucked on the flop.

The turn hits a very good card for you, giving you a made straight (also the highest straight available). The only hands that can draw out on you are a 4-flush in diamonds or someone with a set that would need the board to pair. I like the bet and when the opp raises... I have one question for you. Are you already ITM?
If so, then I like the shove because if you lose, there aren't any major pay jumps in that part of the tournament and the risk is worth it to double your stack.
If you're not ITM yet, then I'd have flatted their raise and saw the river card to make sure it wasn't a diamond or didn't pair the board... and if it wasn't, then shove the river. Even if you had to then muck on the river, you'd have a 52k stack at only 600 blinds... which is still a very playable stack.
 
Old
Default
Sun Oct 23, 2011, 02:52 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
With over 100 BBs you can play whatever style fits you/the situation best. If you're a skilled postflop player it is good to raise good suited connector hands like from early position at least some of the time. It helps balance out your range, and thus can help get you paid with your bigger hands. Plus, you can always flop gold and win a big pot. ALSO, deep-stacked, this sort of hands starts to become more valuable than the top pair/top kicker type hands, which start to pick up some pretty bad reverse implied odds.

Preflop is fine as long as you're not doing this every time you have a suited connector. Sometimes you probably should fold them.

On the flop I'm definitely never ever ever folding to that little bet. I'm at least calling, and often raising. Really depends on reads, but it's a small price to try to hit my gutshot to the NUTS, with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Folding 0% here.

Obviously getting it in on the turn. There is exactly one hand we're afraid of and it's the same hand we have. T9 that had a backdoor draw on the flop and picked up a whole flush draw on the turn to go with the nuts. Turns out he had the only hand you could fear, but he could have had a lot of others.
 
Old
Default
Mon Oct 24, 2011, 04:05 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohjeohje View Post
It depends if you are playing turbos or regular speed. Flipping is good when you are bigger stack and have decent pair holding. But sometimes folding 77-TT is good against big stack if you only invested little amount of your stack. You might get better spot later on.
+1 ^^

If this is a REGULAR structure MTT, I am (slightly) more inclined to try things like raising sutied connectors oop.

If this is a TURBO structure MTT, I already have a pretty big stack, and do not want to speculate oop to increase that stack as often.
The combination of the fast blinds, and the greater relative "safety" from that blind pressure as compared to most of my opponents, weighs agaisnt me "wasting" some chips in order to accumulate more NOW. I can easily find better spots when my more "desprete" opponents feel the pressure to "need" to speculate oop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
from UTG, 9 10 suited's normally a muck preflop since you're out of position. From late position, different story. If you are going to play it, like the raise to 3BB with it, instead of limping.
+1 ^^

When you open UTG with a hand like T9s, you will really only get a beneficial flop about 25% of the time.
Because top pair hands will happen so infrequently for you, and even when they do you will have kicker issues, you cannot really "like" playing those "hits" oop.
That means the only hands you really "like" are those that give you 2 pairs, 3 of a kind, or a strong 8 or 9 out draw.
The total of all those sorts of flops are about 25%, versus the roughly 33% chance of flopping top/top with AK.

Since your BULK of the beneficial flops for you will consist of DRAWS, you are going to have a harder time from oop in managin the pot in order to either receive he right price to draw, or in extracting value when you do make your draws.

It is simply far EASIER to pass these types of hands up when you are oop, especially when you've already got a pretty big stack and thus have less of a "need" for immediate chip ups.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Preflop is fine as long as you're not doing this every time you have a suited connector. Sometimes you probably should fold them.
+1 ^^

There definately ARE some reasons for playing T9s from UTG though...I just do not think you provide us enough info to think THIS is the proper spot to do so.
To balance your range, to exploit implied odds, etc. are certainly good reasons, but are they reasons HERE?

First, I'm just not certain the chip distribution on your table favors playing your T9s oop for implied odds value.
There are 2 short stacks who may decide to stand over your raise, and that puts you in a trick bag with a hand like T9s in terms of calling. Against at least 1 of the shorties you'll be getting a price that will be VERY HARD to pass up, but you will be playing this conntector hand for more than you'd intended. Unless you've observed a serious "leak", neither of the 2 short stacks are likely to CALL and allow you to take the flop; they are either folding or going all in. That ain't great for T9s.

There are also 3 other stacks around the 15 to 20BB "re-steal" range at the table after a call of your raise.
If these hands re-raise you, you are in a pickle.
If they flat call you, they really do not carry enough in their stacks to give you implied odds to play a drawing hand oop.
If you elect to try to leverage relative position by checking (if the flop comes 3 way) these middle stacks will carry a ton of fold equity against even top pair "hits" by you due to your kicker issues.
If you elect to play your hand aggressively to avoid telegraphing "weakness" to the middle stacks, even a single C-Bet CALL by those middle stacks can lead quickly to them using an aggressive raise against you on the turn; the hand types you are likeliest to make with T9s will not tend to be strong enough to face playback for the amount you'd have to risk vs the middle stacks.

I think with the stack distribution at your table, you'd be better served making this sort of entry in a bubble situation.
At those times a lot the middle stacks will be less prone to make aggressive moves at the pot weakly because they can get ITM without the risk of their aggro moves failing.
If you had a very tight image, the middle and short stacks would also tend to be less likely to play hard at your raise here, so that would make the choice you made more reasonable too.
If the bigger stack at the table tended toward loose/passive play, the fact he DOES carry very strong implied odds value for your type of hand would greatly increase the chances for your play as well.

Next, if the play is "typical" middle stage play for a $1.10 MTT, balancing your raise range is not nearly as important as it is against more aware players.
Even $1.10 MTTs can see some pretty decent players in the late stages, but there are plenty of "fish" left in the middle times who will not be aware of your moves and motives.
Seeking to balance your actions in order to create favorable LATER situations will be largely wasted effort versus players who do not notice your play, or who may well not be around for the late stages.
Afterall, you've already built a nicely sized stack, and do not need to get ALL the chips right now; that means making un-needed "image" plays will tend to deplete your stack more often than grow it at the current MTT stage.

So yes, there CAN be spots you'd want to make this type of pre-flop play, but without more specific "read info" on your opponents, I cannot say I'd favor making the play you did here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Calling their flop bet is not too good of a play, here's why. You have to put in 1800 into a pot of 8250 (21.8 %). You're drawing to an inside straight, so you've got 4 outs, giving you approx 16% hand equity. You want the hand equity % to be higher than the % you have to put into the pot. If not, then it's a -EV play. In this situation, you can expect on average to lose 5.8% of your chips. Due to that, if you didn't muck preflop, it should be mucked on the flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
On the flop I'm definitely never ever ever folding to that little bet. I'm at least calling, and often raising. Really depends on reads, but it's a small price to try to hit my gutshot to the NUTS, with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Folding 0% here.
I gotta say, I disagree with BOTH these statements...at least in part.

I dis-agree with JWK about this being a "bad call" based on the equity.

From what I read, JWK seems to be looking at the POT ODDS price only (1800 to win 8250), and comparing that with your chance to win.
The 1800 bet by the BB puts around 26% of his total start stack into the pot though, so you can expect him to launch the rest at least SOME of the time after leading out.
As long as you recognize the outs you need to hold a better hand than what the BB might fire on again, you stand a good chance at making MORE than just what is in the pot now for taking the shot to spike.

This means your real situation is:
If you do NOT spike one of the outs you "need" to improve, folding off another 1800 chips really is not damaging to your stack.
Your total "pot investment" after calling the 1800 is only 3300 (about 4.6% of your start stack), and that certainly fits the bill for being a "cheap" speculative call.
If you can expect to make MORE from a spike when the BB bets again, or calls at least some of the time you bet behind a check by him, enough in total from spiking an out to make it a go.
If you do not spike, it is a pretty cheap fold.

Also lacking in this opinion is the value from any of your over card spikes, which may also give you the best hand.
While I would not go so far as to consider a T or a 9 coming at their FULL out value of 6 total outs (giving ou 10 outs total), largely because the BBdid not raise pre-flop, you must think that at least SOME of the time you are going to make the best hand from a T or a 9 as well.

By my rough guesses using typical micro stakes player tendencies, you have about the equialent of 3.5 "outs" from a T or a 9 coming.
(discounted from 6 outs, see this for thoughts on discounting outs: http://www.pokerjesusonline.com/discounting_outs.htm )
This gives you the equivalent of 7.5 live outs, and that means you have a (roughly) 16% chance to spike on the turn card (7.5 / 47 unknown cards).
(NOTE: since the BB is likely to bet again, you do NOT "assume" you will get to see both the turn AND the river without paying more.)

To make a call at the "break even" point with a 16% chance to spike, you must get a total expectation of return on your call of 5.25 to 1.
1800 x 5.25 = 9450 is what you need to expect to WIN by calling and spiking, in order to break even versus just the BB.

With 8250 already in the pot when you are thinking about calling, you only need to expect the BB to put another 1200 into the pot, either on a bet or a call, to "break even" on the IMPLIED ODDS. The depth of investment by the BB makes this pretty likely to happen, unless he is on a total airball bluff all along...

BUT...

With the big stack still in the pot and acting AFTER you on the flop, you have to factor in HIS actions before you elect to call that 1800 for what is likely a good implied odds price. This is where I dis-agree with Oriholic when he says he would FOLD 0% of the time...

The potential presence of the 1 stack who can bust you out of the MTT really "dries up" the value of spiking a T or a 9 for you.
This happens because being "wrong" against the BB about a T or 9 being good for you carries a maximum stack loss for you of about 17%.
While you would not want to lose that much, that loss does knock you out of the event, nor even cripple your overall chances of running deep.
If you get involved with the big stack and turn a T or 9, being wrong CAN result in you getting knocked out of the MTT; at the very LEAST the big stack can bring larger pressure on you if you hit a T or 9.
This means with the big stack to act behind me, I'd lean toward only counting my 4 x 7's as outs, and decide on that basis whether to continue.

With 4 outs I have an 8.5% chance to spike the turn, and hold the nut hand.
That means the pot must (eventaully) pay me 10.77 to 1 to make the chance break even.
1800 x 10.77 = 19,386

With 8250 in the pot, I must have a reasonable expectation of the COMBINED additional amount needed from the pot is 11,136 to break even.
The BB alone cannot supply this, but if I am against just the BB I do not NEED that much.
A CALL by the big stack behind me would add an additional 1800 immediately, bringing my total needed to break even down to just 9336.

With 9610 in his stack, I can still get the right price for a call if the big stack calls, and the BB will JAM the flop with a bloated pot, or if the big stack will contribute the extra amount needed . This is still looking like a pretty good call...

...but I do not think I'd go so far as to say "I'm folding 0% of the time"...

As this is really a good "squeeze" spot for the big stack, and also as he might have seen the potential for the squeeze spot if the Blinds tended to have loose call standards for raises in multi-way pots (a pretty "standard" leak for blind plays), he could well have limped STRONG here. Of course that would take a player with pretty advanced skills to see, and set up. But it would take much LESS skill to see an aggressive move by the big stack if he holds something like A8, and wants me out of the pot to face the BB alone.

This means even before I make a call, I am setting a TOTAL PRICE that I am willing to pay for the spec play here; that price will include not jsut the call amount, but also any RAISE cost the big stack behind me might make.

To keep this within the realm of "cheap-ness", I really do not want to exceed about 5% to 7% total investment of my start stack.
Since we started with just under 72k, my max price would be around 3600 to 5000 TOTAL (including my 1500 pre flop raise) to keep going on the spec play.

Since a call is going to put me at 3300 (4.6%) invested, I am going to find it hard to call ANY RAISE by the big stack, although I would probably stretch my limits to accept a call of a MIN RAISE (5100 total investment) to see the flop. Going anything above this, for me, simply entails too great a loss to my stack to be worthwhile trying for the bigger return of the spiked 4 out-er.

Things which would adjust this:

- The big stack bluff sqeezes very lightly, and too frequently. In this case I may go to as much as 15% of my stack invested to try winning the larger amount his stack might give. The value of my Ts and 9s go up in this case.

- The big stack will only squeeze extremely TIGHTLY. In this case, I feel his raise would hold enough strength that my chances of getting deeper into his stack would pay off going to 15% of my stack for a try.

- If any big stack raise might result in a BB SHOVE. This would set up a "dry pot" situation, and so long as the big stack has a good notion on how to paly dry pots, that increases the chances I get to see the turn AND the river for the same price (17% total investment).

So all in all, I am probably not folding here very often at all, But I cannot really risk a RAISE here very often, because then a 3Bet by the big stack is almost certainly going to price me off my spec play.

The only times I'm folding this flop is if I feel there is a VERY STRONG chance (nearing 75%+) that the big stack will squeeze for an amount which will put the BB all if he calls, AND build a side pot that he might make a play at. Versus a lot of the players I see in the micro levels, I'd say that would happen about 15% to 20% of the time.
I am never going to be sure that THIS TIME will be one of the 15% to 20% chance that something "bad" happens behind me to price me off my spec play, so at least some of the time I am going to "risk" being forced to fold my 1800 call, in the hope the big stack does NOT raise me.

So versus typical micro players, I am probably folding to avoid the 1800 chip loss only about 10% of the time, or less. That isn't FAR from what Oriholic says, but it still isn't 0%...

Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Obviously getting it in on the turn. There is exactly one hand we're afraid of and it's the same hand we have. T9 that had a backdoor draw on the flop and picked up a whole flush draw on the turn to go with the nuts. Turns out he had the only hand you could fear, but he could have had a lot of others.
+1000000000 ^^

When you do spike the nuts, living in fear of the free roll being there is going to totally defeat the purpose of your entire line from the pre-flop raise on.

Your decision on the spiked 7 should be designed to make it easiest to get the REST of your chips in, and while 70% pot may not be ideal for keeping lesser hands like top pair around, it does get more value in for you and makes larger river bets possible for even more value in. Without more info that can lead you to a "trickier" bet size (or even a check to induce) that will get you the extra value you want, your choice is just fine.

A Flat call of the big stack's min raise would just be BAD in a pot this large; you simply do not want to face a decision for the rest of your stack on a scary river after putting 28% of your chips in, so end the diecisons now. You do that...bravo.

After that, it just so happenes that the villain had the ONLY specific hand you had to live in fear of: Td9d.

The diamond doesn't come and you chop, but it did and you busted.

If you want to avoid chances of this, do not play drawing hands oop when it is so much harder to control your pot investment, but once you decided to play here all the rest of your decisions were spot on.

Tough break.
 
Old
Default
Gr8 feedback for my first post! tytyty to all contributors! - Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:18 AM
(#7)
AAsKKin4abet's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 3
THANKS TO ALL for the gr8 feedback, amazing ideas and feedback, i really appreciate it,this is one of my first steps to get back on a winnning track, you guys rock !! tytyty

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
+1 ^^

If this is a REGULAR structure MTT, I am (slightly) more inclined to try things like raising sutied connectors oop.

If this is a TURBO structure MTT, I already have a pretty big stack, and do not want to speculate oop to increase that stack as often.
The combination of the fast blinds, and the greater relative "safety" from that blind pressure as compared to most of my opponents, weighs agaisnt me "wasting" some chips in order to accumulate more NOW. I can easily find better spots when my more "desprete" opponents feel the pressure to "need" to speculate oop.



+1 ^^

When you open UTG with a hand like T9s, you will really only get a beneficial flop about 25% of the time.
Because top pair hands will happen so infrequently for you, and even when they do you will have kicker issues, you cannot really "like" playing those "hits" oop.
That means the only hands you really "like" are those that give you 2 pairs, 3 of a kind, or a strong 8 or 9 out draw.
The total of all those sorts of flops are about 25%, versus the roughly 33% chance of flopping top/top with AK.

Since your BULK of the beneficial flops for you will consist of DRAWS, you are going to have a harder time from oop in managin the pot in order to either receive he right price to draw, or in extracting value when you do make your draws.

It is simply far EASIER to pass these types of hands up when you are oop, especially when you've already got a pretty big stack and thus have less of a "need" for immediate chip ups.



+1 ^^

There definately ARE some reasons for playing T9s from UTG though...I just do not think you provide us enough info to think THIS is the proper spot to do so.
To balance your range, to exploit implied odds, etc. are certainly good reasons, but are they reasons HERE?

First, I'm just not certain the chip distribution on your table favors playing your T9s oop for implied odds value.
There are 2 short stacks who may decide to stand over your raise, and that puts you in a trick bag with a hand like T9s in terms of calling. Against at least 1 of the shorties you'll be getting a price that will be VERY HARD to pass up, but you will be playing this conntector hand for more than you'd intended. Unless you've observed a serious "leak", neither of the 2 short stacks are likely to CALL and allow you to take the flop; they are either folding or going all in. That ain't great for T9s.

There are also 3 other stacks around the 15 to 20BB "re-steal" range at the table after a call of your raise.
If these hands re-raise you, you are in a pickle.
If they flat call you, they really do not carry enough in their stacks to give you implied odds to play a drawing hand oop.
If you elect to try to leverage relative position by checking (if the flop comes 3 way) these middle stacks will carry a ton of fold equity against even top pair "hits" by you due to your kicker issues.
If you elect to play your hand aggressively to avoid telegraphing "weakness" to the middle stacks, even a single C-Bet CALL by those middle stacks can lead quickly to them using an aggressive raise against you on the turn; the hand types you are likeliest to make with T9s will not tend to be strong enough to face playback for the amount you'd have to risk vs the middle stacks.

I think with the stack distribution at your table, you'd be better served making this sort of entry in a bubble situation.
At those times a lot the middle stacks will be less prone to make aggressive moves at the pot weakly because they can get ITM without the risk of their aggro moves failing.
If you had a very tight image, the middle and short stacks would also tend to be less likely to play hard at your raise here, so that would make the choice you made more reasonable too.
If the bigger stack at the table tended toward loose/passive play, the fact he DOES carry very strong implied odds value for your type of hand would greatly increase the chances for your play as well.

Next, if the play is "typical" middle stage play for a $1.10 MTT, balancing your raise range is not nearly as important as it is against more aware players.
Even $1.10 MTTs can see some pretty decent players in the late stages, but there are plenty of "fish" left in the middle times who will not be aware of your moves and motives.
Seeking to balance your actions in order to create favorable LATER situations will be largely wasted effort versus players who do not notice your play, or who may well not be around for the late stages.
Afterall, you've already built a nicely sized stack, and do not need to get ALL the chips right now; that means making un-needed "image" plays will tend to deplete your stack more often than grow it at the current MTT stage.

So yes, there CAN be spots you'd want to make this type of pre-flop play, but without more specific "read info" on your opponents, I cannot say I'd favor making the play you did here.





I gotta say, I disagree with BOTH these statements...at least in part.

I dis-agree with JWK about this being a "bad call" based on the equity.

From what I read, JWK seems to be looking at the POT ODDS price only (1800 to win 8250), and comparing that with your chance to win.
The 1800 bet by the BB puts around 26% of his total start stack into the pot though, so you can expect him to launch the rest at least SOME of the time after leading out.
As long as you recognize the outs you need to hold a better hand than what the BB might fire on again, you stand a good chance at making MORE than just what is in the pot now for taking the shot to spike.

This means your real situation is:
If you do NOT spike one of the outs you "need" to improve, folding off another 1800 chips really is not damaging to your stack.
Your total "pot investment" after calling the 1800 is only 3300 (about 4.6% of your start stack), and that certainly fits the bill for being a "cheap" speculative call.
If you can expect to make MORE from a spike when the BB bets again, or calls at least some of the time you bet behind a check by him, enough in total from spiking an out to make it a go.
If you do not spike, it is a pretty cheap fold.

Also lacking in this opinion is the value from any of your over card spikes, which may also give you the best hand.
While I would not go so far as to consider a T or a 9 coming at their FULL out value of 6 total outs (giving ou 10 outs total), largely because the BBdid not raise pre-flop, you must think that at least SOME of the time you are going to make the best hand from a T or a 9 as well.

By my rough guesses using typical micro stakes player tendencies, you have about the equialent of 3.5 "outs" from a T or a 9 coming.
(discounted from 6 outs, see this for thoughts on discounting outs: http://www.pokerjesusonline.com/discounting_outs.htm )
This gives you the equivalent of 7.5 live outs, and that means you have a (roughly) 16% chance to spike on the turn card (7.5 / 47 unknown cards).
(NOTE: since the BB is likely to bet again, you do NOT "assume" you will get to see both the turn AND the river without paying more.)

To make a call at the "break even" point with a 16% chance to spike, you must get a total expectation of return on your call of 5.25 to 1.
1800 x 5.25 = 9450 is what you need to expect to WIN by calling and spiking, in order to break even versus just the BB.

With 8250 already in the pot when you are thinking about calling, you only need to expect the BB to put another 1200 into the pot, either on a bet or a call, to "break even" on the IMPLIED ODDS. The depth of investment by the BB makes this pretty likely to happen, unless he is on a total airball bluff all along...

BUT...

With the big stack still in the pot and acting AFTER you on the flop, you have to factor in HIS actions before you elect to call that 1800 for what is likely a good implied odds price. This is where I dis-agree with Oriholic when he says he would FOLD 0% of the time...

The potential presence of the 1 stack who can bust you out of the MTT really "dries up" the value of spiking a T or a 9 for you.
This happens because being "wrong" against the BB about a T or 9 being good for you carries a maximum stack loss for you of about 17%.
While you would not want to lose that much, that loss does knock you out of the event, nor even cripple your overall chances of running deep.
If you get involved with the big stack and turn a T or 9, being wrong CAN result in you getting knocked out of the MTT; at the very LEAST the big stack can bring larger pressure on you if you hit a T or 9.
This means with the big stack to act behind me, I'd lean toward only counting my 4 x 7's as outs, and decide on that basis whether to continue.

With 4 outs I have an 8.5% chance to spike the turn, and hold the nut hand.
That means the pot must (eventaully) pay me 10.77 to 1 to make the chance break even.
1800 x 10.77 = 19,386

With 8250 in the pot, I must have a reasonable expectation of the COMBINED additional amount needed from the pot is 11,136 to break even.
The BB alone cannot supply this, but if I am against just the BB I do not NEED that much.
A CALL by the big stack behind me would add an additional 1800 immediately, bringing my total needed to break even down to just 9336.

With 9610 in his stack, I can still get the right price for a call if the big stack calls, and the BB will JAM the flop with a bloated pot, or if the big stack will contribute the extra amount needed . This is still looking like a pretty good call...

...but I do not think I'd go so far as to say "I'm folding 0% of the time"...

As this is really a good "squeeze" spot for the big stack, and also as he might have seen the potential for the squeeze spot if the Blinds tended to have loose call standards for raises in multi-way pots (a pretty "standard" leak for blind plays), he could well have limped STRONG here. Of course that would take a player with pretty advanced skills to see, and set up. But it would take much LESS skill to see an aggressive move by the big stack if he holds something like A8, and wants me out of the pot to face the BB alone.

This means even before I make a call, I am setting a TOTAL PRICE that I am willing to pay for the spec play here; that price will include not jsut the call amount, but also any RAISE cost the big stack behind me might make.

To keep this within the realm of "cheap-ness", I really do not want to exceed about 5% to 7% total investment of my start stack.
Since we started with just under 72k, my max price would be around 3600 to 5000 TOTAL (including my 1500 pre flop raise) to keep going on the spec play.

Since a call is going to put me at 3300 (4.6%) invested, I am going to find it hard to call ANY RAISE by the big stack, although I would probably stretch my limits to accept a call of a MIN RAISE (5100 total investment) to see the flop. Going anything above this, for me, simply entails too great a loss to my stack to be worthwhile trying for the bigger return of the spiked 4 out-er.

Things which would adjust this:

- The big stack bluff sqeezes very lightly, and too frequently. In this case I may go to as much as 15% of my stack invested to try winning the larger amount his stack might give. The value of my Ts and 9s go up in this case.

- The big stack will only squeeze extremely TIGHTLY. In this case, I feel his raise would hold enough strength that my chances of getting deeper into his stack would pay off going to 15% of my stack for a try.

- If any big stack raise might result in a BB SHOVE. This would set up a "dry pot" situation, and so long as the big stack has a good notion on how to paly dry pots, that increases the chances I get to see the turn AND the river for the same price (17% total investment).

So all in all, I am probably not folding here very often at all, But I cannot really risk a RAISE here very often, because then a 3Bet by the big stack is almost certainly going to price me off my spec play.

The only times I'm folding this flop is if I feel there is a VERY STRONG chance (nearing 75%+) that the big stack will squeeze for an amount which will put the BB all if he calls, AND build a side pot that he might make a play at. Versus a lot of the players I see in the micro levels, I'd say that would happen about 15% to 20% of the time.
I am never going to be sure that THIS TIME will be one of the 15% to 20% chance that something "bad" happens behind me to price me off my spec play, so at least some of the time I am going to "risk" being forced to fold my 1800 call, in the hope the big stack does NOT raise me.

So versus typical micro players, I am probably folding to avoid the 1800 chip loss only about 10% of the time, or less. That isn't FAR from what Oriholic says, but it still isn't 0%...



+1000000000 ^^

When you do spike the nuts, living in fear of the free roll being there is going to totally defeat the purpose of your entire line from the pre-flop raise on.

Your decision on the spiked 7 should be designed to make it easiest to get the REST of your chips in, and while 70% pot may not be ideal for keeping lesser hands like top pair around, it does get more value in for you and makes larger river bets possible for even more value in. Without more info that can lead you to a "trickier" bet size (or even a check to induce) that will get you the extra value you want, your choice is just fine.

A Flat call of the big stack's min raise would just be BAD in a pot this large; you simply do not want to face a decision for the rest of your stack on a scary river after putting 28% of your chips in, so end the diecisons now. You do that...bravo.

After that, it just so happenes that the villain had the ONLY specific hand you had to live in fear of: Td9d.

The diamond doesn't come and you chop, but it did and you busted.

If you want to avoid chances of this, do not play drawing hands oop when it is so much harder to control your pot investment, but once you decided to play here all the rest of your decisions were spot on.

Tough break.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com