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What are the odds???

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What are the odds??? - Sun Oct 23, 2011, 11:49 PM
(#1)
mr djcrow's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 2
Playing in $2 torny and was delt in late position pocket jacks. Raised 5x the blind and had 1 caller. Been watching this player play he had won a big hand early on but had a patern to his betting. First to act he would just check call until the river where he would check raise. Anyway the flop came ace,ace,ace. Ok I have a boat and only 3 hands would beat me. Ax KK and QQ. So I considered you dont see quad aces very often let alone flop quad aces. KK and QQ very posible cause I had JJ and they seem to be comman when you hold JJ. Other posibiltys would other pockets and over valued suited crap. He checked I bet he called. Next was a 6, once again he checked and I overbet the pot he called. So now I was thinking did he hit the 6 or did he have a king thinking that might be good or was he holding pockets. River came out was a 3. He has then bet my exact amount of chips I had left. I had seen him do this a few times already and cause others to fold. I thought that this could be his ploy. So I decided I think I have the best hand lets see what he has and called him putting me all in. He turns over A 8 off. I wonder what are the odds of him flopping quad aces. I congratulated him on nice play as you tell he did have me confused on his hand. This sought of stuff has been haperning to me quite a bit latley. I get a great hand and someone else is sitting there with a bigger hand and normally something you would think is unlikly. Thankyou good luck all.
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 12:06 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
assuming someone has the 4th ace other than you, so 3 cards are accounted for.... about 1 in 18400 that you flop 3 aces.
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 01:38 AM
(#3)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,033
(Community Coordinator)
As JW said flopping quad Aces is a very rare thing............

The only comment to make here is that he was forcing you to shove all-in and in doing so probably putting a fair amount of his own chip stack into the pot. I've no idea what the stack sizes were here but the question to be asked is would he be doing this with fresh air on that board?

As you said at the beginning of your post there were 3 hands out there that could beat you. It would be very hard to fold a House here but if you did it would have been a Ninja fold.
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 12:55 PM
(#4)
TOO2COO's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,882
(Super-Moderator)
**moved**
 

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