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Too risky?

 
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Too risky? - Mon Oct 24, 2011, 10:26 AM
(#1)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Was it a good idea playing my set on a draw heavy board?

 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 10:45 AM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi,

A few thoughts,

As with all things it depends on your opponents, I would play Trips against one opponent but with more than that we are cutting it fine (i think - plug the ranges into poker stove would be a good idea)

secondly i'm not sure i would play 77 in a raised pot out of position unless i planned to jam it all in when if i hit my set.

Grade b
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 01:03 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Very standard call of a min raise with 8:1 odds and a great implied odds situation. Post flop your PSB on a draw heavy board is very common as well. VNH.
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 01:15 PM
(#4)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
good to see the math guru with the input in here!!
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 02:32 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Looks fine to me, though that board isn't really "draw-heavy". You're priced in preflop, and you should have implied odds against the UTG raiser. Someone has an ace most of the time here, and you're likely to get paid by leading out. And your value donk bet is bigger than you expect them to bet if checked to, so this is probably a better value line in this situation than checking to the raiser (who could have KK and just checked here out of ace fear.) Obviously glad to get it in with 77 on AQ7.
 
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Mon Oct 24, 2011, 02:59 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
If you are going to call a min raise with 77 from the BB, then about the BEST you can hope to flop is a set of 7's. If you have any doubt whatsoever about playing that hand if you get it, you are better served not calling the min raise in the first place. Afterall, what ELSE are you playing for, flopped quads? (note: quads will flop for you only about 1 in 407 when you hold a pp).

As stated, this board has some draws, but it is hardly "draw heavy".

With the strength of your hand, and the multi-way nature of the pot, giving a possible "free card" by checking the flop is probably not the best idea. The presence of that A alone gives enough reason to believe SOMEONE has caught a piece of this board here, and if that is the case, by betting you get some value in right away if someone calls a lead bet.

I do, however, want to comment on your bet size CHOICE...

You lead for full pot.

If you were heads up in this spot with your set you'd be better served by betting something like half pot to 2/3rds pot. This size bet is much more "inviting" to 1 pair hands and flush draws to call, but it is plenty large enough to lay an incorrect price to those hands for a suck out chance.

In a multi-way pot you DO want to bet a larger amount, because failing to do so might result in 1 caller creating a pot large enough to then lay a correct price to a flush draw held by a later acting opponent. This creates an "ugly" spot for you insofar as the first "mistake" leads a call by a hand which has a BETTER chance to beat you, when that call may NOT have occured in a heads up spot.

So good job on recognizing the effects of a multi-way pot with possible draws to beat you, and adjusting your bet sizing.

After you DO lead for the pot size bet, you are getting yourself very close to a 30% to 35% committment point. That means when the UTG min raiser re-raises you, you are pretty stuck here. If that guy was "tricky" enough to min raise AA or QQ UTG, and if he flopped a set bigger than yours, so be it. You simply should not fold here once you've decided to play...

The MOST you can do if the UTG player re-raises you is "hope" he doesn't immediately rush you all in, and you can possibly save SOMETHING if he does hold a better set.

...but you simply must play this set when you flop it.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 12:34 PM
(#7)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Cheers, folks. much appreciated.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 01:26 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
I agree, pretty much a mandatory preflop call, and I'm getting it in on the flop 100% of the time here unless I'm careless and time out from too much fist pumping before clicking the button.
 

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