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Is this a bet / fold situation?

 
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Is this a bet / fold situation? - Tue Oct 25, 2011, 02:24 PM
(#1)
DiveAllIn's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 377
Villian playing 42/4 over 71 hands, would class as loose, weak calling station,


 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 02:52 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
100% bet./fold spot imo. A weak station will pay you off with tons of worse hands, but you check they will just check those behind and you won't get value from them. If he raises, he has you beat for sure. Stations river bluffs are extremely rare birds. Bet for value/fold to a raise is perfect in this spot imo.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 02:59 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
PRE FLOP:

QQ is plenty strong for a raise.

FLOP:

You are still fine in betting over a check by the villain.
If he is a big C.S., the last thing you really want to do is give a free card that could beat you.
However, the fact a straight is already possible on the flop, and that the villain's range is so wise he may well call with an 89, that first flat has to get you thinking a bit.

TURN:

OOP, that K is really tough for you.
It represents an over card, not only an over card to your hand, but also completes MORE straights within a weak caller's range.
I cannot say I "dis-like" your bet entirely versus a died in the wool C.S. when oop, but if you had position I would definatly check BEHIND a check by this type here.
At the very least, when he calls your turn lead, you are looking to check/call at MOST on the river, depending on what he does.

RIVER:

There are now enough threats to your hand on this board that the river lead is not great imho.
Yes, you MIGHT still get called by a J, but if the villain holds "just" a J here he may not "go to the wall" with his bet sizing.
In fact, a true C.S. may not bet the river at all with just a J here, and that would save you ANY "worry" about being bet off this pot.
So all in all, I think I check with the intent of CALLING a bet in the amount you lead for, and with the intent of FOLDING to a larger bet size.

That would have saved you a little bit in this hand, and money you do not LOSE has the same value as money you win.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:03 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
If he raises, he has you beat for sure. Stations river bluffs are extremely rare birds.
I agree. I've only seen 2 stations bluff the river in all the hands I've ever played online, both were lead bets.... and only a couple of dozen that raised (all of them had the absolute nuts).
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:10 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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I can definately see the bet/fold river thought...

In fact, I think I change my thinking.

A lot of what I wrote was based on looking at sample size, and the POSSIBLE thought this may not be a true C.S., but a palyer looking for a float spot at least some of the time.

71 hands at 1 table with the same villain though would pretty much give you a GOOD base of info to work off of in your reads. And C.S.'s rarely bluff, that is what makes 'em C.S.'s (in large part).

So yeah...I think I'd say a bet/fold line is better on the river, but the line I suggest is a possibility if the villain will over estimate his hand and bet a small amount on something liek a J.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:11 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
As JDean and I discuss this hand on skype.

vs. other player types a check/call line certainly may be warranted, but vs. a calling station bet/fold is by far the best line... the station will call with many more worse hands than they will bet if we check to them (in fact an extreme station won't bet any worse hands, but will call with any type of worse made hand).

We discuss at length in live training about value betting calling stations to death, and never bluffing them, but a lessor discussed point regarding stations is also not to try and induce bluffs either... stations are very rare bluffers and are poor at value betting non-monsters themselves, so if we check this spot on the river we are unlikely to induce either a bluff or thin value bet from a calling station. Much better to take them to value town, and we can very comfortably fold if we get raised.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:18 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
I agree that 71 hands is a pretty small sample size, but in this case with the villain's stats it means he has voluntarily put money in the pot preflop 30 times already, we should have observed enough post flop play to identify a station by now, and if we have this read wrong then this is a good area of focus for learning.
 
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Tue Oct 25, 2011, 03:27 PM
(#8)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Yep definitely bet/fold. He can call with plenty worse but is never raising anything we beat. Can't check/call either because every single hand we beat will just check it back. Call stations aren't bluffing missed draws often.
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 08:29 AM
(#9)
DiveAllIn's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 377
ty for all feedback, would have like to have heard that skype discussion.
 

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