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MTT - Tue Oct 25, 2011, 05:40 PM
MEVpaul's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 143
Shove or call is best 17bb in MTT?
I call i can get him off AQ

Tue Oct 25, 2011, 06:08 PM
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Yeah you might get him off AQ but I feel he would continuation bet that flop plus the Hijack was already in so even if you got him off you would have been left with 1400 chips.

Just really unlucky with the Ace on the river; I am shoving here every time although they always seem to catch up when I do

Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:30 PM
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
Definitely shove. You have a great hand and are way ahead of any reasonable range here. If you just call, he may not reshove and then there are too many problems you can run into postflop--probably can't get much worse to stack off postflop.
Tue Oct 25, 2011, 07:38 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
I like the shove too. With 2 others in the pot, the best thing that you can hope for is for their overcards to match... therefore giving them less outs at you.
Tue Oct 25, 2011, 09:43 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
I think you are looking at the results of the hand, and what the first raiser showed down, and letting it effect your thoughts. That is "results oriented" thinking, and you really need to be trying to avoid that. Your decision to shove was the correct one.

First, you are in a good spot with a solid hand to attempt to get the pot heads up with the all-in. That would create "dead money" over lay for you since your JJ stands to be well ahead of the likely shove range by someone this short. The only possible way for you to have that beneficial situation come about is by going all in.

Next, if you flat along here and a K comes on the flop, isn't it just as possible the initial raiser might have bet YOU off the pot on a bluff? 57% of the time there will be at least 1 over card to your JJ on the flop, and do you really want to be put to the decision of folding off 45% of your chips vs possibly being out-flopped? You have no clue what cards the flop will bring, so you have no way of knowing if it will be good for you or bad for you. When you have a strong enough hand to warrant it (you do with JJ), and when it is a chance of putting a committing amount of chips into the pot that you MIGHT have to fold away, you are far better off getting your chips in before something bad happens.

Next, do you really WANT the initial raiser to fold a 6 out draw to over cards which will improve to beat you only about 26% of the time? While it is possible he would not have folded to a jam by you given the 2.5 to 1 price he'd be getting to call, you do NOT want him to fold when you will win almost 3/4ths of the time; you want him to PAY YOU. The only real sure way to get him to pay you off here is by moving all in pre flop and having him call you then.
Wed Oct 26, 2011, 01:19 AM
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
I'm a bit of a nit, so personally, I can see folding this here pre flop pretty easily.

I just don't like the odds of risking the rest of the tourney against two opponents.

The big stack villain is going to call after a large raise in ep, (since in general, it's a sign of strength) and the side pot will only end up being less than 400 chips more than you're starting the hand with.
If I'm going to just survive on the side pot, it should be worth the risk...after all, you will have much better odds to win the side pot than you will the main pot...so for this bit of a nitty stack manager, it's a fold more often than not. Should you fold it, I think you find better EV spots later, even in a limited time.

If I'm playing the hand, then I agree, it's a shove.

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