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55 against Q5, boat vs boat!!

 
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55 against Q5, boat vs boat!! - Wed Oct 26, 2011, 03:45 AM
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77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
playing for about an hour in the premier league. villian playes easy limps a lot but never saw him limp this kind of hand( boy was i wrong or lack of showdown). most of the time i saw at least a KTs+ or KJ+ so i assumed his starting range must be everything over this 2 examples.

He limps early so in the back of my head i also assumed he could be slowplaying High PP. i decided to call my 55 and see a flop.

my lucky day i make my set and the villain bets 200 and i assume he hit an A or J PLaying his A9s+ or KJ+ he might even been sitting on a draw playing KQ so i figure i am ahead and decide to flat call for value because i still feel i am ahead and raising would make him fold.

Turn comes Q and his 300 bet gives me the feeling he is still fishing, having a top pair with a draw or maybe 2 pair already so i figure him AJ or KQ but still think i am ahead!

River comes Q and he shoves! i think 1st option is that he missed totaly and tries to push me off and the second i think he has 2 pair with at least 2 aces and thinks he has a winner or even hit trips on his KQ.

So i call and when the cards turn i think OMFG WTF

Any suggestions what i've could play different???
my first idea is the limping preflop and change it in a 2,5-4 BB raise


Last edited by 77wopke77; Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 03:57 AM..
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 04:26 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
playing for about an hour in the premier league. villian playes easy limps a lot but never saw him limp this kind of hand( boy was i wrong or lack of showdown). most of the time i saw at least a KTs+ or KJ+ so i assumed his starting range must be everything over this 2 examples.

He limps early so in the back of my head i also assumed he could be slowplaying High PP. i decided to call my 55 and see a flop.

my lucky day i make my set and the villain bets 200 and i assume he hit an A or J PLaying his A9s+ or KJ+ he might even been sitting on a draw playing KQ so i figure i am ahead and decide to flat call for value because i still feel i am ahead and raising would make him fold.
Nothing at all "wrong" with your thinking to this point.

I really love seeing you put up the depth of info on your thinking about the opponent, that really sheds light on the "why's" of what you are planning, and shows that you are certainly moving beyond just "playing your cards". Nice job.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
Turn comes Q and his 300 bet gives me the feeling he is still fishing, having a top pair with a draw or maybe 2 pair already so i figure him AJ or KQ but still think i am ahead!
This is where your thoughts are starting to break down a little bit though...

Up to this point, you are acting out a "plan" for your hand play, and that plan has pretty much told you this guy might be on a somewhat WEAK hand, certainly weaker than your set of 5's, or he is on a draw of some sort.
He could well be on a hand that HE does not view as "weak" though...

Either way, the fact he has barrelled twice at the pot may well indicate he has something he would be willing to call a raise on, and even if he is on a weak draw, you really do not want to give him the option of setting his own "price" to draw.

You really should have made a raise on the turn after his 2nd bet.

Had you made it something like 850 or 900 to go, chances are strong you either deny the price for a weak draw to keep going thus getting a FOLD without any further "risk"; this benefits you greatly in a structure which favors caution over chip accumulation like the Premier League.

You'd also likely only get RAISED by better hands than your bottom set, and could contemplate a fold to "save" 22BB in a league which rewards survival so strongly.

You'd also tend to get CALLS by a lot of worse hands, thus adding value to the pot for your set.

There really is no "down side" to a raise, as long as you know what you intend to do however your opponent re-acts to that raise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 77wopke77 View Post
River comes Q and he shoves! i think 1st option is that he missed totaly and tries to push me off and the second i think he has 2 pair with at least 2 aces and thinks he has a winner or even hit trips on his KQ.
This is a rough river, and a tough spot to stack off so many chips in a MTT structure that favors survival.
You have pretty much fallen a-foul of the wrong side of Zeebo's Theorem (http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/)

I'll be really honest, a turn raise is not a guarentee you can "get away" on this river, and in fact the extra chip investment from that raise may make a stack off even MORE likely for you because you'd be pretty heavily invested. But since you know based on the info you put up that a 2 pair or even a bigger set is a definate possibility on this Villain's range, the fact he:

barrelled twice with lead bets
then
called a turn raise
then
open jammed the river

MIGHT be "just enough" for you to get away from your under-boat with your 22BB intact in a flat pay structure tournament.

I am telling you this, in a standard MTT, I doubt I am ever folding this off anything but a 100BB+ stack, and facing a shove on the order of 75BB to 80BB on the river, so it is by no means a "clear" fold...afterall the guy might have made the straight or just trip Q's as you said.

But with the Premier League's scoring system, there may be a TINY chance you can muck, but only if you get the "extra info" from a turn raise.

No matter what, as long as you reasoned out your decisions well, there is always the CHANCE he wakes up with a hand you totally do not expect. sometimes that hand is better than your's and you lose the max. I cannot say you did anything "wrong" in calling the river shove, because it IS a very polarizing action.

But I would say a turn raise MIGHT have been the tiny bit extra info you needed in order to tip you towards a good fold.

...or it might not have been.

But overall, nice job of thinking through the hand.

Last edited by JDean; Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 04:33 AM..
 

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