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top pair decent (4th) kicker v drawing hands

 
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top pair decent (4th) kicker v drawing hands - Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:05 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Hi all,

PSO Premier League hand so no direct cash involved -

I am posting this because at the time I thought I had read it pretty accurately and made the right move, but on reviewing it I wondered if I was missing something.

I have JT offsuit in the BB and get to see a free flop 3 handed with 2 limpers. I hit top pair on a ten high flop with a back door straight draw.

The big stack of the 3 involved acts first and bets 400, just under half the pot. The 2nd player folds.

I have just over 2k chips which is 10BB if I fold. I don't want to fold as I think I am ahead. I don't want to call as I suspect that most likely this villains hands are 1 or 2 overcards to the board, a smaller pair than I have hit or potentially draws to the straight or flush, and as I want to bet I think it really has to be a shove. Mistake?

My other read is that the big stack is quite likely to be using using his stack muscle to get us off the pot on this board texture. I think that I am probably ahead with top pair and J kicker. I was discounting QQ+overpairs or sets. Though I now suppose 55 or 99 would be reasonable for him to limp preflop, at the time with his play and stack I believed he would have raised 99 preflop at least, if not also 55. This could be a mistake.

I have been trying putting different ranges based on my read into pokerstove and everytime it says I am ahead post flop. I know I am actually ahead against his specific holding, but I can't get straight in my head which hands I should have included in or excluded from his range. I know he got lucky in this instance, but I am still not sure the move was correct or if I had ranged him reasonably.

I wanted to excluded the outcome but I can't find how to do that once the hand is in replayer, which I took from the instant hand history, no longer available,

If you can control yourselves, I suppose you can think about it before you press the play button, or pause it at the relevant point.

Any thoughts welcome.


Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan


Here it is......


Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 07:28 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
How loose was the opp calling with when they did showdown a hand? That's the only other thing that may play into my thinking. The wider they were showing, the more I'd want to push with it.

You're sitting on a stack with an M of about 5, which means that you don't want to be leaking off chips. You hit top pair and if you don't put the opp on a set or a 10 and higher kicker, there is no problem with shoving the flop. If they have a flush draw, then they've got 9 outs (36% equity) or an open-ended straight draw (normally 8 outs but you hold a J, so they only have 7, giving them 28% equity).
Your shove makes them put in an extra 50% into the pot... so they really don't have the odds to call it and it's a -EV play for them, making it a +EV play for you.

All you can do is to get your chips into a favorable situation, which you did.
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 02:50 PM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Why did you check the flop?

I'd probably just shove preflop. And if not, then definitely on the flop. Weaker 10s, 9s and even some smaller pocket pairs and draws might call. I'm definitely happy to flip on my less than 10 BB stack.

This is a wet board. This is the kind where there are all kinds of straight and flush draws, and suited connector pairs out there. I don't like checking because there was no preflop raiser, and it's pretty unlikely for someone to bluff this flop. They may have a semi bluff, but against your stack if someone puts in any money they're going all the way with you.
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 03:16 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Why did you check the flop?

I'd probably just shove preflop. And if not, then definitely on the flop. Weaker 10s, 9s and even some smaller pocket pairs and draws might call. I'm definitely happy to flip on my less than 10 BB stack.

This is a wet board. This is the kind where there are all kinds of straight and flush draws, and suited connector pairs out there. I don't like checking because there was no preflop raiser, and it's pretty unlikely for someone to bluff this flop. They may have a semi bluff, but against your stack if someone puts in any money they're going all the way with you.

As it was PSO Premier I could happily go through these blinds folding to preflop raises (as I shove/fold a bit lower than 10BB due to League points system) so I am happy to check pre to see the flop, then I ran the clock a bit deciding whether to shove immediately and whether I was likely to get called by less, which I thought probably not because 2K chips still makes a big difference to both the bigger stacks in terms of league positions. Bornabodega is a known player to me, at least as far as PSO regulars with form that shows a better skill level than most. The big stack not so much, after I check and villain bets fairly light I would probably even fold to a shove from Bornabodega but once the villain bets and he folds I was willing to go up against them with top pair.

A little bit convoluted but was basically willing to get all in with bigger stack, a little backwards I know but they both had me covered and I considered Bornabodega the bigger risk player.

I think you are correct that it is unlikely in most cases for someone to bluff this flop but again the fairly cheap bet from the bigger stack, who though they did not raise pre were first to act preflop, will often force folds in the league situation unless someone really already has it, so they can steal the pot more easily here and they can get away cheap. My stack is callable so it all kind of worked out right for me. (Oh except that I lost.)

Mind you, a lot of my reads come from mysterious places so I can't say I was at all sure what I was doing at the time. No change there then.

Good luck all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:14 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Being the Premier League, that puts some other concerns here that are not at work in a standard format event. Specifically, your need to survive is great enough that you cannot really take un-due risks.

With that said...

I cannot really find fault with your play given the info you've provided about the opponent.

In a STANDARD event, you are much better off donk leading here for your entire stack, given the info you've provided.

Based on that info you have enough "reason" to suspect you are ahead, but checking to induce a bet you plan to jam over may well lay good odds for the Villain to call with a 1 way draw. As it stood, the bet amount he made was less than half pot (400), and a jam by you would lay 1.97 to 1 for a CALL (1720 call to win 3380), so he is right up against the odds needed for a call anyway. The villain could have easily bet slightly more than he did, and gotten his odds price; that is bad for your shove. Also, the 860 in the pot now represents ENOUGH of a chip up for you that you'd be happy to take that down without contest.

But in the Premier League, where survival is so critical, you do not "mind" folding top pair/J kicker to a STRONG BET, and ladder climbing on the rest of your chips.

If the Villain checks behind you and that free card you've given adds to the draw threats to the board, the possibility of a straight or flush completing does not chang the fact you'd be perfectly willing to give up on your hand to ladder climb.

If the villain checks behind you, and the turn comes a blank, then you are more confident that your hand is best and can jam.

If the villain bets SMALL behind your check, all your info points to the possibility that you do hold the best hand, so a jam to possibily pick up that extra value is not necessarily "bad"; if a 1 way 8 or 9 out draw calls you and spikes, so be it.

So no matter what the villain does, in the premier league your actions are pretty clearly defined for you if you CHECK the flop...

Because of the tight nature of the structure, you do not really want to open jam your hand, because that will not lead to getting CALLED by lesser hands very often at all (if ever). You've dried up any chance that a 1 way draw will call, so you've added no value. Yes, by open jamming you pick up 860 a lot of the time, and yes in a flat pay structure event this can be a good chip up, but you also LOSE the extra value those draws may put into the pot for you AND generally get called by only hands that have you crushed.

So only for the flat pay structure event that is the Premier League would I be in favor of a C/R shove like this one, and it is only an ok option because you will tend to see the need for survival expressed in making more FOLDS with in close odds situations.

Last edited by JDean; Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 06:18 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:48 PM
(#6)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

I cannot really find fault with your play given the info you've provided about the opponent.

That's one of the nicest things anyone ever said to me.

[In here].

And I know you were really trying to find fault - which was what I was doing myself to see where/if/how badly I went wrong. Didn't mind the beat, just what my options were.

Given the rest of your specific analysis I have to do more research on the structure of the Prem League, only two months into its current state so not much data and different to most other stuff - good game to beat regularly in the long run though.

Cheers

Ed from edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 06:56 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
It was meant as a compliment.

Usually people post stuff in the HA forum BECAUSE they think something might be "wrong" in their hand play.

The deeper your reasoning, the harder it is to say something is "wrong" or "right".

Poker, being a game of incomplete information, means that the best you can do is guess whether this situation favors the CHANCE of your thoughts being what is actually at work. As long as everything points toward the CHANCE of what you think might be happening is really happening, and as long as that chance carries a commensurate risk/reward balance, then your reasoning is going to be fine...even if it doesn't work out well.

You gave PLENTY of insight into your thoughts, and those were all spot on, as the results showed.

So it really was a compliment even if it didn;t feel like one.

 

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