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Please tell me this fold was the right play

 
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Please tell me this fold was the right play - Wed Oct 26, 2011, 08:00 PM
(#1)
Azaruna's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 11
SilverStar
Have a look and let me know your thoughts on laying down up and down straight draw with middle pair.

PokerStars Game #69578826944: Tournament #544010493, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXII (3600/7200) - 2011/10/27 0:51:52 WET [2011/10/26 19:51:52 ET]
Table '544010493 12' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: gab_fle (298348 in chips)
Seat 2: smidge89 (280136 in chips)
Seat 3: Boldyjoe (105216 in chips)
Seat 4: davemoss79 (171302 in chips)
Seat 5: Azaruna (151266 in chips)
Seat 6: carstelot (234156 in chips)
Seat 7: gnom007 (80288 in chips)
Seat 8: Takezo1980 (211484 in chips)
Seat 9: IPLAY4LIVIN (165635 in chips)
gab_fle: posts the ante 900
smidge89: posts the ante 900
Boldyjoe: posts the ante 900
davemoss79: posts the ante 900
Azaruna: posts the ante 900
carstelot: posts the ante 900
gnom007: posts the ante 900
Takezo1980: posts the ante 900
IPLAY4LIVIN: posts the ante 900
Takezo1980: posts small blind 3600
IPLAY4LIVIN: posts big blind 7200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Azaruna [Tc Js]
gab_fle: folds
smidge89: raises 7200 to 14400
Boldyjoe: folds
davemoss79: folds
Azaruna: calls 14400
carstelot: folds
gnom007: folds
Takezo1980: folds
IPLAY4LIVIN: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Jh 8d]
smidge89: bets 17649
Azaruna: calls 17649
*** TURN *** [9c Jh 8d] [Kh]
smidge89: bets 247187 and is all-in
Azaruna: folds
Uncalled bet (247187) returned to smidge89
smidge89 collected 82998 from pot
smidge89: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 82998 | Rake 0
Board [9c Jh 8d Kh]
Seat 1: gab_fle folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: smidge89 collected (82998)
Seat 3: Boldyjoe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: davemoss79 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Azaruna folded on the Turn
Seat 6: carstelot folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: gnom007 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Takezo1980 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: IPLAY4LIVIN (big blind) folded before Flop
 
Old
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 08:18 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
you would have to put about 110k into a pot of 193k or approximately 57%.

You only have 8 outs to your straight (assuming the opp didn't have a Q) and 2 more to trips and possibly 3 more to two pair. If you assume that if you make a hand, it will be the best one..... which may or may not be the case.... then you have 13 outs or 26% equity if you make a hand. If the opp does not have Q 10 or a K, then it's even more.

In this situation, I'd probably fold to the turn shove.

However, what I would have done would be to raise the flop. You've got top pair and an open-ended straight draw, which is a very playable hand. I'd have raised the flop and by doing that, you can value bet along with seeing where you are in the hand... along with maybe keeping them from pushing the turn if they only had a K.
 
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Wed Oct 26, 2011, 08:26 PM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Maybe?
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 02:42 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
PRE FLOP:

Calling a min raise with JTo off a 21BB stack is a bit meh.
Versus the "right" player type it could be ok, but without info from you about your read of the player's tendencies it is hard to justify it on your stack size.

With 21BB, you should be looking to enter pots more aggressively, as you are quite likely to find yourself in a situation where you are reaching a committment point quickly even after "small" investments like this. In short, you are not really going to be able to play a "standard" line all the way to the river on your stack size, even though you entr only by calling a min raise.

You gotta consider that your "cheap look flop" times are going away very quickly when that min raise could cost you 10% of your stack. You'd be far better off either folding a hand like JT which may only flop a hand that gives you kicker problems, or 3Betting over the min raise if you think the opponent is min raising quite wide and can fold.

FLOP:

You hit the flop pretty good with your JT really, as not only might you hold the BEST HAND with your top pair, but you also have picked up the 8 out draw in case you are in kicker problems. Again, flatting this may not be ideal versus most players, but it is totally different story than limping pre flop because you DO have some decent value now.
Versus a type who will C-Bet too often, your flat may lead to a turn bet by the villain that gets more value in for you, but that turn bet may NOT be forthcoming if you raise immediately; if you read him as this type, then checking to induce with your hand can be ok on this flop.

You should be aware though that calling the turn bet has you at 21.5% of your start stack invested in the pot already, and it is becoming increasingly harder to fold that amount. While you CAN still fold that amount to a highly threatening card (or threatening action), the flop MAY be the time to decide to either "go for it" with a shove raise, or fold without calling the extra 17k. If you lack specific read info to lead you toward checking the flop to get extra value, I think I'd lean toward standing on the flop immediately, rather than "risk" allowing the threat card to fall.

TURN:

The K does represent a decent threat to your hand, as you now you no longer hold top pair, but it does not compelete any straights that are not already there.
Because you called the flop bet, you cannot really "afford" a donk lead now with the intent of folding to play back, so you are prety much at the "mercy" of the villain's bet size choice.

You see that he jams all in, and after the line you;ve taken, I do believe your fold is ok. I just think that had you elected to play your hand more aggressively earlier on (or if you had elected to FOLD earlier if you did not feel you could play it aggressively), you could have saved some chips.

This is a really good hand to illustrate the "dangers" of continuing to take "cheap flops" on a middle size stack. 21BB SEEMS like a stack that still allows some chances to "take shots" at pots, but it really isn't; those committment decisions come rushing up really quickly on stacks of that size.
 

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