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River decision??

 
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River decision?? - Thu Oct 27, 2011, 02:00 PM
(#1)
DiveAllIn's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 377
Villian was playing 21 / 12 over 20 hands 1st open from EP, no real reads as yet,




was planning on c/c a small river bet but not that. Was i correct?

to be honest was lost through out the hand but I think calling not 3betting was correct?
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 02:13 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
preflop, don't mind the call, because if you raise, you're playing a larger pot out of position.

flop: don't mind the check to the preflop raiser... same thing I'd have done.

turn: liked seeing you lead out after the opp checked the flop.

river: I'd have led out again. The opp could easily sense weakness since you checked the flop and the river (thinking you had 2 unpaired big cards that missed). If I was the opp and had AK or even AQ, I'd have made a similar type of bet, especially if I put you on any non category 1 pkt pair. The only way they'd win the pot would be to bet, and bet big.
If you had led out on the river, like you did the turn... about the only way the opp would raise is if you're beat. That way, you can get a value bet in or take down the pot on the river without facing a large bet in return... but... if they then make a large raise, then you can muck knowing you didn't have the best hand.
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 02:52 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Because you put only 1 street of value in on the board, the pot is really quite small when it gets to the river.

A C/C line here is somewhat risky, because it leaves you at the "mercy" of whatever the villain decides to bet, and the "careful" nature of your play throughout the hand may well signal weakness. That weakness can lead to a large bluff bet in this situation. Because the stacks are still very DEEP in relation to the pot size, they are carrying a lot of "pressure" potential.

It looks to me like you are facing a pretty "polarizing" bet on the river.
This villain is likely to either hold a hand like 66/99/QQ+ OR something like AK/AQ.
As played, this polarized range is not worth a call; the pot is just too small to want to risk being "wrong".
So good fold.

BUT...

To be honest, I'd prefer a flop lead on this somewhat dry board, instead of your check.
Is it really likely a UTG raiser has entered the pot with a hand containing a 3?
By leading the flop with your over pair to the 9 you start to "define" the villain's range better.

The turn is pretty "blank" too, so if the villain flats the flop lead you'd be fine in firing again on the turn.
Again, that lends some definition to your over pair hand as if the villain flats THAT you would have gotten 2 streets of value in, both of which were called and/or raised.

If he calls THAT, then a check/call is more likely to be possible...
In this case, you'd have seen him stay around for 2 streets of value by you, so your JJ is starting to shrink up.
While a bluff stab is still possible for some villain types, and while the stacks would still tend to carry enough in them to exert extreme pressure with a bluff, the 2 bullets fired by you would tend to make even "bluff-y" villains think hard before firing a 2 times pot bet without holding the goods.
This means if you DO see the villain as "bluff-y", a C/C line might get you extra value.

Alternately...

If you do NOT see the villain as the type to try rash bluff moves, a Bet/Fold line is fine here too.
On this board there is not much which has connected with a UTG raiser's typical range, but a river lead MIGHT get you a call by a hand like TT/88/77/A9.
If you see a RAISE of your river lead, you can be pretty certain you are beat by a bigger pp at least.

So while taking the passive line you did here DOES make it easier to fold the river, it also makes it more possible that you will face a bluff on the river.
If you add up the total of what you'd likely be putting in on a more aggressive line of lead betting the flop and turn, you will probably see that amount is pretty darn CLOSE to what you were willing to invest with your turn lead and a C/C decision for some amount on the river. this is especially true if YOU carry a somewhat bluff-y image.
The major difference is that a more aggro line would have left you less open to bluffs shots.

Last edited by JDean; Thu Oct 27, 2011 at 03:02 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 03:06 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
He's pretty polarized here. You lose to every single hand in his value range. Does he have a bluff range here? If not then this is a super easy fold...At worst he has trips. This really looks like either 99 (for flopped boat) or 45 for the backdoor straight. 22, 66, and 33 are also in his range. There aren't a lot of 3s he's likely to have based on his preflop raise though, other than like A3. 45 is a little weird too. Still it looks like he has 22, 33, 66, or 99 a lot, and even if he's spazzing with AA, you're still beat. I don't think he's ever jamming on a busted flush draw here, and since that's the only thing you beat, it's an easy fold.

I think I like your line though after betting the turn I'd prefer to bet/fold the river. There are a few worse hands that can call a bet, but not many that will value bet themselves. TT might bet, as might 9x, but 88, 77, 6x, etc. are probably more likely to call a bet than make one. If you get raised, it's an easy fold as again, you can't beat the worst hand in his value range.
 
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Thu Oct 27, 2011, 03:10 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I do not think anyone "dis-agrees" really about this hand, although there seems to be some thoughts which differ...

In reality though, everyone is in agreement that you are probably locking yourself to 2 streets of betting here, be they on the flop and turn, or on the turn and river.

Launching only the 1 street left you too open to a bluff stab.
 
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Fri Oct 28, 2011, 01:12 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Big river bets like this are usually for value, so folding isn't bad, but your hand is so under-repped I wouldn't fault you for calling either. Villain's line looks a lot like 9's full or quads, but that's really all he's repping imo. I guess he could have turned clubs and then bluff the river, but he should have c-bet the flop with 2 clubs or any other air hand HU on this board. Could be a weird played AA.
 
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Fri Oct 28, 2011, 08:06 AM
(#7)
DiveAllIn's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 377
cheers ty for all feedback, i can see where u all r coming from.
 

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