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Did i make the right move?

 
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Did i make the right move? - Sat Oct 29, 2011, 10:02 AM
(#1)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
Board was so dangerous and I always lose if i try to gamble on a flush draw

 
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Sat Oct 29, 2011, 11:57 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
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The thing with flush draws..... you don't want to gamble, you want to make sure that the odds make sense with putting the amount of chips you need to in the pot.

On the flop, you checked, which you can do, especially if you think the others would let you peel a free card to hit your flush. I'd have probably tried betting 90-100 (similar to the preflop bet) as a blocking bet and hope that I didn't get raised. With checking, the opp in seat 9 bets and is called by seat 2. To call, you need to put 345 chips into a pot of 1140 (30%).
You have at least 9 outs and possibly more, as you could have the best hand if an A or Q hits too. If you only have 9 outs, you have 36% equity. If the other aces get you the best hand, you have 12 outs, 48% equity. If both are true outs, then you have 15 outs or 60% equity.

All of these are higher equity numbers than the % that you'd have to put into the pot, so it's really a call.... or at least I would.
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 07:18 AM
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XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
thanks for the advice, one of my leaks is I have a hard time calling, I always either raise or fold...
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 10:21 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XxTiberxX View Post
thanks for the advice, one of my leaks is I have a hard time calling, I always either raise or fold...
I'm actually not a fan of calling here. It's too much of your stack to call and fold the next card. Also, you actually need about 4 to 1 to call to see one card for a pure flush draw...it's 2 to 1 for both cards. Thing is, Two overs with the nut flush draw is such a strong hand I'm generally happy to get all my chips into the middle with it. Even without fold equity you're usually about flipping against your opponent's range. Sometimes you can even get it in against a worse flush draw. I'd just jam it in there on the flop. He can fold, or you can improve to the best hand often enough that this is very +EV. Also a check/shove looks pretty strong.

If you don't want to put your whole stack in right now, I'd prefer folding to calling. It's just such a large portion of your stack, and you're out of position.

I think shove > fold > call in this spot.
 

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