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Double gutshot str8 + flush draw with mid suited connectors at 6Max NLHE

Double gutshot str8 + flush draw with mid suited connectors at 6Max NLHE - Sun Oct 30, 2011, 10:26 AM
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Just played this hand a few minutes ago, blind v blind at a 6Max NLHE against a villain who has been pretty solid.

Should I have c-bet on this flop and/or turn, and are my bets reasonable size

Have chopped the river card & outcome so also interested in what line you would take if we miss all the outs or hit the str8s or flush draws

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
Sun Oct 30, 2011, 03:22 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Solid in terms of start standards, As in a tight open range?

This sort of hand is EXTREMELY difficult to analyze without very strong read information, because it is largely a matter of you barreling twice on semi bluffs. It is highly villain dependant upon whether or not that is a good idea.

As played, you open raise in a blind on blind situation with a middle suited connector oop. Right there, that type of action should be made if you are able to leverage your fold equity on a range of "scare cards" versus this opponent, as well as bluffs/semi-bluffs. If you cannot leverage that sort of equity very often, either because you have a very "bluff-y" image or the villain is a calling station, you may prefer to consider folding pre or only barreling once.

As played though, you are fine.

The turn bet was made after you did get some "improvement" (you went from a gut shot straight draw to a double gut with a flush draw). The bet sizing you chose elevates the pot to a size where if you check and the villain bets on a "hit" by you, you can probably get a good bit of your stack in easily (if not all). Also, if you miss you can check fold without losing a ton.

The turn bet was made with enough in the way of out improvement to have solid reasoning, as going from 4 outs with 2 to come, to a max of 15 possible outs with 1 to come is a LARGE increase in your chance to spike (to around 32%/33% to hit with 1 to come vs about 17.2% to hit with 2 to come).

So overall, this looks like a pretty good spot to play this hand exactly as you played it, provided of course your "plan" is to either check/fold the river, OR do whatever you think you can to get as many of your remaining chips in on the river as possible if you do hit a straight or a flush.

Good job.

Last edited by JDean; Sun Oct 30, 2011 at 09:08 PM..

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