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Fullhouse

 
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Fullhouse - Sun Oct 30, 2011, 05:53 PM
(#1)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
Should I be able to fold this hand or is it just a cooler?

Crossed my mind that they had bigger full house or a flush.

 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 05:54 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
hard to fold a full house, and if you thought of folding because they had a flush....
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 06:05 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,823
(Super-Moderator)
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100% cooler. No way would I be folding that one. I also liked your bet sizes for the flop and turn. I probably would have bet slightly more with my river lead, but no problem getting it in with your hand.
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 09:56 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 73REX73 View Post
Should I be able to fold this hand or is it just a cooler?

Crossed my mind that they had bigger full house or a flush.
As stated, this is a cooler; you probably are not getting away here very often at all.

Your "critical" street is the river.

One MIGHT make a case for you flat calling the villain's river raise (to 68c), but if you had done that, you had a strong chance of costing yourself the 42c remaining in his stack. Consider...

This hand played out so passively that you have strong reason to suspect the villain was chasing some sort of flush draw that got there. QJh/KQh and AQh are all pretty good possible limp hands UTG (although at a 6 max table KQh and AQs are probably better as raising hands UTG), as would be any Axh. The only "real" hands that might be ahead of you in a "typical" limp range would be 33/66/99, and of those 66 would have a hard time calling 2 streets of value form you, and 99 is probably better served raising UTG at a 6max table to allow it better playability. QQ might be considered a limp hand ONLY if your table were playing such aggro poker that the UTG villain may have "expected" a raise.

Additionally, the fact the villain did not raise you on the TURN, when you had given every indication with your 2 strong bets that you held a hand which could withstand that raise, was probably a "mistake". By not doing so, he all but assured that you would check/call the river AT MOST with any hand except the exact sort of hand you did hold: an under-boat. As this hand played out (including your actions), you'd be entirely likely to be the one trying to use aggression with a semi-bluff (if you held a flush draw), or you may be the one holding a top pair type hand. Even a top pair/medium kicker hand should probably bet/fold the river here, so the villain "value owned" himself so badly with his excessive slow play, that you really should NOT be putting him on ANY "over boat" except maybe 6's full for a luck box cooler hit; it is WAY more likely HE is the one chasing, and he "got there" to a 2nd best flush.

So if the most likely hand for the villain to hold is a flush, look at the river action as it plays out:

When the villain raises your 22c river lead, making it 68c to go, that puts $1.33 in the pot.
If you raise the rest of his stack, that builds the pot to $2.21, and puts the decision back on HIM to call 42c or "give up".
He'd be getting about 5.25 to 1 to make that call, so there is no real way he can consider folding a flush if he had chased it that far.

So if you FLAT his river bet, you are simply giving up too much value when there are so many lesser hands which may have "gotten there" on the river, but are in truth only 2nd best hands to your 3's full.

Now it should be obvious that if you had SPECIFIC READS which may lean you towards believing this villain is the type to slow play excessively, you would have been better served with a flat of his river raise in that somewhat small pot. Also, if he is an extreme "calling station" type who has shown a pattern of CALLING too much, that river raise might have made you more too "suspicious", and led you to flatting it and giving up the chance for 42c more in value. But without those specific reads, you played this one fine...

...and that makes it a cooler.
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 10:07 PM
(#5)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
can we assume that the reason why he didn't raise you on the turn is because he don't want to scare the 3rd player off?
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 10:31 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keldraco View Post
can we assume that the reason why he didn't raise you on the turn is because he don't want to scare the 3rd player off?
You COULD say that. But...

NLHE carries the "threat" at all times to a bet much LARGER than pot size, so quite often "crying calls" with very WEAK hands are not going to be made. It is much more a FIXED LIMIT type play to count on "keeping people around" to build your pot, as the betting structure of those games allows opponents to check/call you and only put 1 bet at risk. In NL, you are really relying on the pot size to dictate the size of a "reasonable" bet which will get called by a lesser hand with some "strength"; that is what says raising now to build the pot, when there is at least 1 player pretty sure to call, would be better. If that short stack is highly "bluff-y", or if he falls in love with the float play and you pssess that read, then I'd definately agree with you that keeping him around to make THAT kind of "mistake" would be worthwhile..

You have to consider since the SB check/called the flop, and then checked the turn, you have no guarentee that he will call ANY bet to keep going, not even the one made by the Hero in the hand. So by checking in hope of inducing that short stack to stick around, you are probably trading "sure" value in the pot (from the Hero who barreled twice)NOW for the slight chance of MORE value IF the SB decides to flat again. That is a pretty small hope though really...

The SB is the shortest stack in the hand (75c behind on the turn), but even a flat call by him on the turn to "come along" is no guarentee he stacks off without river improvement, or without a pretty strong hand. A turn RAISE by the Qs full villain, in the range of 35c to 45c to go, probably sticks that small stack into a "jam or fold" spot, and gets full value from a stronger holding by him now, and if he is on a draw, he may well not get there or he may not keep going after seeing those 2 barrels AND the 2 calls...see?
 
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Sun Oct 30, 2011, 11:57 PM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
You played it fine. Just a cooler. Your river jam is being called by about every hand in his raising range, and he's raising with all his flushes here. Get it in every time.
 

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