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reraise to get better odds on draws

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reraise to get better odds on draws - Mon Oct 31, 2011, 04:01 AM
(#1)
2edgar's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 34
(Moderator)
Hi

First time posting here in "advanced" poker hopefully somebody can help me out with this.

For example if I held Ac2c and the flop comes Kh4c8c, and my opponent has AdKd bets $14.00 into a $22.00 pot, from my understanding the pot odds are 2.5:1, but my draw odds are "roughly" 4:1 this means it is "wrong" to call because I dont have the "correct" pot odds to call...then is it okay for me to raise $28.00 which will give my opponent pot odds of 4.5:1 is this now my NEW effective pot odds which means its a right play? would this mean im making money long term or am i loosing money? or is this still a bad move for me because the original pot odds for my draw was 2.5:1?

or does drawing the correct pot odds apply to calling only? unless ofcourse i was favoured to win, but lets not consider that.

help


 
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Mon Oct 31, 2011, 10:17 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hey,

That's not correct, the odds are only related to calling. In your example the express (pot) odds are 2.5-1 on a 4-1 shot so you're not getting the right price to draw, BUT if there is money behind then you have some measure of implied odds (additional money you may be able to win on a future betting round if you make your hand) which can make the call ok. I did a training video on odds that might help, it's in the video archive here: Session 25: Odds

Raising his bet is actually charging yourself more to draw (decreases your odds). But raising can have additional power as a semi-bluff in that you're giving the opponent a chance to fold (they may fold to your raise, allowing you to win with the worst hand, and if they don't fold you still might complete your draw to improve to the best hand). In situations where you believe you have good fold equity, the semi-bluff is a very powerful play. If fold equity is small, then a semi-bluff is a bad play... if there's no "bluff"component, then you're basically just charging yourself more to draw. For those wishing more info on fold equity, here's a video on that concept: Session 14: Fold Equity

Hope this helps.

Dave
 
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Mon Oct 31, 2011, 08:09 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
An additional possible "benefit" of your action is that it MAY result in you getting the villain to give you a "free" turn and river...

In effect, if you have position on the villain, raising his bet can result in him being un-willing to lead bet on the turn. If that happens, you can elect to then CHECK behind him (if you have not made the nut flush), and that allows you to see the river as well. If the villain leads the river, you can fold if you miss and call or raise if you hit.

The 4 to 1 chance you have to hit is only 4 to 1 because you cannot "know" if you will get to see BOTH the turn and the river for the same "price". If the villain fires again on the turn, you;d have another decision which is increasing your investment in the pot. Therefore, you really only want to look at your chances to win on the NEXT STREET, and not "assume" you will get to see both betting streets. If you raise in an attempt to "get a free card", you make it more likely that the villain will NOT bet again on the turn, thus lowering your overall pot investment to get to the river.

If this play "works", and you do get to see the turn and river for just the amount you raise on the flop, you;d have a 38.7% chance to make the nut flush on those 2 cards. That would require you only receive about a 1.6 to 1 return on the money invested to break even to take the chance. So SOMETIMES raising on a draw in hopes of getting that free card is a good thing...

Keep in mind though, attempting to make this sort of play in NO LIMIT is highly risky, and should be reserved for very specific types of opponents only. This is a more common play in FIXED LIMIT poker, where your maximum continued investment might be a call of a 3rd "small" bet on the flop. In No Limit, the villain is not restricted to a fixed bet size, so a re-raise over your raise could easily set you a price you simply cannot afford to pay with a draw.

Also...

As stated above, raising the pot does not increase your pot odds. Pot odds are usually figured based upon the total you must invest in the pot on this street, versus the total amount you might win as the pot stands on the current betting street. So your actual pot odds, if you RAISED and the villain called the raise (not re-raised), would be...

$28 to win $50 on THIS STREET, or 1.79 to 1 pot odds.

(The $28 is your total cost for your call and your raise, and the $50 you might win is the $36 in the current pot plus the $14 more the villain might call.)

This is why TheLangolier stated a raise actually decreases your draw odds, see?

Last edited by JDean; Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 08:19 PM..
 
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Tue Nov 01, 2011, 12:19 AM
(#4)
2edgar's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 34
(Moderator)
thanks for the feedback u guys, I've learnt about implied odds today, which explains why despite how much i bet on the flop to discourage opponents drawing, hitting their draws on the turn/river, they call anyway...ahh the micros,

thanks
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 05:38 PM
(#5)
CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2edgar View Post
Hi

First time posting here in "advanced" poker hopefully somebody can help me out with this.

For example if I held Ac2c and the flop comes Kh4c8c, and my opponent has AdKd bets $14.00 into a $22.00 pot, from my understanding the pot odds are 2.5:1, but my draw odds are "roughly" 4:1 this means it is "wrong" to call because I dont have the "correct" pot odds to call...then is it okay for me to raise $28.00 which will give my opponent pot odds of 4.5:1 is this now my NEW effective pot odds which means its a right play? would this mean im making money long term or am i loosing money? or is this still a bad move for me because the original pot odds for my draw was 2.5:1?

or does drawing the correct pot odds apply to calling only? unless ofcourse i was favoured to win, but lets not consider that.

help


keep these 3 in mind. poker is basically all about the below mentioned.

~Betting For value~
You figure you have the best hand and you want a worse hand to call. Value betting is the easiest way to make money, especially at low stakes. Players call far too much with weak hands (its human nature) and we make money by making the best hand and betting strong when we do have it.

~Betting as a bluff~
You have not hit the board at all and your opponent almost always has a stronger hand, you bet to represent a different subset of hands and make him fold a better hand. At low stakes you want to be bluffing less and only in good spots.

~Betting to take down the dead money~
There is money in the pot, our opponent figures not to have a strong hand a decent percentage of the time, we bet to take down the dead money. We could have the best hand or the worst hand, it doest matter, we bet because there is money already in the pot that we want to win.


if you felt that your opponent has a big pair, and given the scenario you proposed. float(call) one turn card and see if you hit your flush or peel a gut shot straight draw and re evaluate.

as for if this is going to be profitable long term, only time will tell

here is how your hand looks from a percentage stand point on the flop of Kh4c8c.

Win : 63.33%
Tie : 0.00%


Win : 36.67%
Tie : 0.00%

gl at the tables
 

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