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Is This a BAD BEAT or not ????

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Is This a BAD BEAT or not ???? - Wed Nov 02, 2011, 07:23 AM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
I Know i prob should of folded pre flop, but i was going for first place.
As it happend i missed the cash by 3, Pushed pocket 22 from SB with 1 half BB left.
If I folded pocket 22 i might of cashed or i might not have.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 08:49 AM
(#2)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
Well he had a premium starting hand, the flat call with pocket A's was a very bad play from his side, if he had raised, you problaby would have folded. He reraised you without thinking about you could have a flush, that was also a very bad play from his side.

For your play, first of all I dont like to limp-in, I either Fold, call a raise, raise or re-raise something pre-flop. You had 11 times the big blinds left so no worries here, especially so close to the bubble. 3-7 is not a hand in the my book that I would play under any circumstances. It is a nice hand for a flush or a straight IF you hit it. wich is in not many cases.

Your move post flop depends if you have a read on him. If no read it was problaby the best play but just bad luck.

Also this is the explanation if you have no reads at all, if you have a read on the villain, you could predict his cards wich will make your decision pre-flop and post flop easier.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 10:52 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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When the chips went in, you were a big favorite in the hand.... so yes.. this IS a bad beat.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 11:06 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
long term, I think completing with 10 6 suited is a leak with only an 11 1/2 bb stack. your most likely holding post flop will either be draws or weak pairs. tough to play oop when you're so short. that being said , ^^^ what he said
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 12:05 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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I agree with MT on that calling this, over time, will be a pretty big leak of chips. Even if you flop a great hand, which you did, you still won't necessarily know if it's going to be good, as someone can have a higher flush... or draw to a single club that can beat you.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 12:30 PM
(#6)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
played it perfectly, just got very unlucky. bad beat. and with 6.8 to 1 odds to call, im hardly ever folding, especially not with something as good as T6s
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 03:21 PM
(#7)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
1. Pre-flop I really don't like the call here. You're M is 5,slightly less actually. You need to be playing ONLY hands at this point that you enter knowing that you are willing to go all the way with when you decide to play them. Does 106s really fit that profile? As big as 35K in chips LOOKS it's really very close to being a push or fold stack in this instance,given the fact that there is 7200 in dead money on the table EVERY hand at this point. You should be looking for spots to be first aggressor (remember the simplest rule of all: it takes a better hand to CALL than it does to RAISE),premium pairs that you can ship over top of limps and/or min-raises and stronger connected and/or suited cards than this to play. Plus you're out of position.

And lastly if you DO hit,as JWK said how do you know that you're flush is even any good?

2. Post flop you're play is 100% correct. And it's actually kind of galling to watch the villain here play the AA this horribly and get paid off for doing so. Look at how bad he humped the pooch here:

A. Limps AA. Do we really even need to discuss the reasons this is such a terrible play? Didn't think so.

B. Then when due to his pitiful play with AA pre-flop he allows a total scare board to flop AND a player bets like he totally has it he compounds his mistake and calls with JUST A PAIR when he's crushed.

3. He gets a runner runner suckout. Totally bad beat post flop,but could have been avoided with a pre-flop fold.

I have a personal rule that I apply to myself when analyzing hands that I look at to see if I was bad beat and it helps me learn from them---if I make a bad play at some point in the hand then no matter what comes to follow I don't allow myself to think of it as being bad beat. Because better play on MY part could have avoided the situation.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 03:24 PM
(#8)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
As Ketchup said with pot odds at 6.8 to 1 and almost a third of my stack out there to win.
Is that really a leak ?

If i didnt flop 2 pair or better i wasnt putting any more chips in.

Last edited by chuckkky; Wed Nov 02, 2011 at 03:29 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 04:01 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
In my mind yes it is,as Barry G said "sometimes math is stupid".

The pot odds argument here is correct when using that as the ONLY measuring stick as to whether to decide to continue with this hand. It's not.

Position---You're worst.

Effective stack sizes and what they mean in relation to the dead money on the table every hand---Like I said above you need to be looking for hands you KNOW going into them that you're willing to play for stacks at ANY point in the hand.

You're hand itself---What is the optimal flop for you here? To me a flush is NOT it as you could be shoving dead or shoving against a player with the A or K of clubs,who is probably NEVER folding and has two streets to see if another club comes. That's good for you if not and bad if it does,obviously. A straight flop is highly unlikely and again 3 gap straight hands get beat,a lot.

To me your optimal flop would be 2 10's or 2 6's,do you really want to play hands that you're hoping to flop trips? Two pair would also be a good flop.

Your goal---To win. This is 100% what your goal SHOULD be. So chukky let me ask you this...

Do you think/feel that you had a skill edge on all or most of the players on this table? If the answer is yes,then there is no need to punt that edge by leaking off chips playing speculative hands OOP. Don't try to beat players that you're better than,make THEM try to beat YOU. There is a difference.


Lastly the other math---Being suited only makes a hand 3% more likely to flop better as flopping a flush is not a common occurrence. If you flop 2 clubs are you continuing on? Of course not. If your hand had been 106o would you have called pre-flop here or folded? Quality of the cards by rank should ALWAYS be the most determinative factor in determining the strength of your hand pre-flop.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Nov 02, 2011 at 04:08 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 04:40 PM
(#10)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Thanks Moxie, I guess the problem was those 10k chips were just too tempting.
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 05:08 PM
(#11)
CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
I Know i prob should of folded pre flop, but i was going for first place.
As it happend i missed the cash by 3, Pushed pocket 22 from SB with 1 half BB left.
If I folded pocket 22 i might of cashed or i might not have.

you played the hand very well.


there are 3 lines to take on a flop like that
1. lead out and bet (like you did), charge anyone with a stray club in their hand to peel a flush.
2. check raise your opponent on the flop, they could have "possibly" folded.
3. check call all the way down to the river.(but given the board texture of 555 calling with a flush on the river is a tough call).

gl and scoop a big one!
 
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Wed Nov 02, 2011, 05:10 PM
(#12)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
pot odds sometimes are as overrated as FPP'S
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 02:55 AM
(#13)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Looks like there are mixed opinions if limping is a leak.
I ran 10 6 clubs into poker calculator against 2 unknown hands and the odds to win were 32.4 percent and if calling was costing me 14.7 percent. isnt that a positive EV.
Even if i put one villan on AA and the other unknown my win rate was over 17percent
.
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 10:55 AM
(#14)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
What we're (I'm) saying is at 11.5 BBs you should probably be in jam/rejam/fold mode, and your (MOST LIKELY) holding post flop w/ 10 6 will be fairly weak, and therefore pretty tuff to play.( especially out of position) and you will be, far more often than not, wizzing that 1/2 BB away, wich you can't really afford to do w/ only an 11 BB stack. I'm actually in that mode b4 I'm down to 11 bigs myself, usually up around 15, and sometimes even higher depending on the villains i'm facing, and makes for a better resteal stack if someone opens in front of you. but that's just personal preference. GL out there!
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 06:09 PM
(#15)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
Looks like there are mixed opinions if limping is a leak.
I ran 10 6 clubs into poker calculator against 2 unknown hands and the odds to win were 32.4 percent and if calling was costing me 14.7 percent. isnt that a positive EV.
Even if i put one villan on AA and the other unknown my win rate was over 17percent
.

In the vacuum of just thinking about pot odds versus the quality of your holdings then yes it's +EV. And on a ring table I would like your call here. But as I said earlier you are doing yourself a disservice in my opinion to look at it ONLY in those terms,as the considerations of a play with the same exact hand in the same exact TABLE situation can be very different when weighed against the parameters and objectives of a ring table versus an SNG or MTT.

For example many players on ring tables have their settings set to always automatically top off their stack to the table maximum or another set amount any time they fall below that number so a longshot play limping a hand like this is basically irrelevant as to where they stand in that particular session should they miss the flop. You can't very well do that in an SNG or MTT.

I liken it to chips being bullets...On a ring table you have an ammo dump easily available to you any time you need to access it should you be sufficiently BR'ed to be playing the level that you're on (which I hope everyone is doing...). In an SNG or MTT you're essentially cut off behind enemy lines and the bullets you have are all you're going to get until you use them to wound or kill the enemy and get HIS bullets. So your aim better be dead bang.
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 03:41 AM
(#16)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Thanks Moxie.
I do appreciate your comments and understand what you are saying.
The other thing i didn't think off was the BB if he raised or shipped it i was really wasting chips. That i didn't have that many of.
Thanks Again
 

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