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I THINK I got this right.

 
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I THINK I got this right. - Thu Nov 03, 2011, 09:51 PM
(#1)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Ok, this is like the 4th or 5th hand of 10FPP Freeroll, wich are NOTORIOUSLY loose at the begining. I actually hate getting ANY kind of hand earlier in these, because they're SOO loose you can get drawn out with just about anything.

As it turns out this table, or at least this hand, happened to be tighter than usual. I was really expecting a shove, and at least one caller behind me.

So, let me have it. Right? Wrong? Improvements?

 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 10:00 PM
(#2)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Ok, Just rewatched the replay, and let me see if I can do my own analysis here:

The inial bet was right I think, and while the C-Bet of the flop was a LITTLE sketchy, it still makes sense on a draw to A)See where I'm at, and illiminate other draws. When Kauk calls, I actually put him on his exact hand which is good, but also why the turn was SOOO wrong. If I KNOW he's sitting on AJ, that leaves me with 7 outs (The other 3 Q's and the 4 10's) I think.

And even though I'm still really shaky with Pot Odds and Outs and such, I think his bet was too large for me to have called, and I got REALLY lucky.
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 10:01 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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if it's that early in a tourney with loose players, then you don't want to be playing a non-made hand.

I like your raise preflop, like that you made one and the size of it.
c-bet on the flop after 3 checks... that's ok too. however, when you get a caller and you just have ace high, you know you're behind in the hand.
If it's me, I'm folding the turn.

You have at worst, 4 outs, at best 10 outs (four 10's, 3 aces, 3 queens). With a K on the board, personally, I wouldn't count the Q's. You need to put 600 chips (about 33%) into a hand that you at worst have 8% equity and best case have 14% equity (if you don't count the Q's) or 20% equity with the Q's. That makes the turn call a -EV play.. and due to that, I'd muck.
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 10:03 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Jx is in their range, but with the way they played the hand... I'd have put them on Kx.
 
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Thu Nov 03, 2011, 10:06 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Honestly I don't think you made a single correct play here. Maybe the check/call on the river, but even there, he's not bluffing enough for you to not just V-bet your hit. If he has anything he'll call the 1/7 pot bet.

Preflop raise is pretty pointless (unless you expect someone to jam or backraise jam worse), just keep it small with your small pot hand. Flop bet in a 5-way pot is bad. You have a gutshot and an overcard...just check and try to get a free card. Turn check/call is really bad. You don't even have have good implied odds to draw. You got super lucky on the river.

Last edited by oriholic; Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 10:22 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 04, 2011, 03:37 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
Ok, Just rewatched the replay, and let me see if I can do my own analysis here:
COOL! makes my life easier to comment on your comments, plus it gives a lot more insight into your thought processes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
The inial bet was right I think,
From a "standard" sizing standpoint, there is nothing wrong with your raise.

From a "absolute" hand strength stand point, there is nothing wrong with your raise.

It is only when we look at the statement you made in your original post here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
wich are NOTORIOUSLY loose at the begining. I actually hate getting ANY kind of hand earlier in these, because they're SOO loose you can get drawn out with just about anything.
That we MIGHT start to view your hand's "raise value" with a more jaundiced eye. Consider...

AQo is a hand which is likely to only flop a 1 pair hand, if it connects on the flop at all, right?

You also recognize that your opponents are going to be calling you WAY LOOSE, and that a lot of the times you will miss and they will hit the flop, right?

You know there are 2 limpers in front of you who will probably call loosely, and also 3 players BEHIND you who might call.

You also know the blinds may well call along in a multi-way pot for what someone without stack disicpline might consider a "cheap" 90 chip call, right?

You really have to ask yourself this question before you consider raising a hand like AQ here: "Am I willing to stack off on a 1 pair hand?"

You are putting roughly 7.5% of your stack in on your raise amount.
Once you've raised, you MIGHT be tying yourself to a C-Bet for around half the pot size as well.

If you get 2 or 3 callers of your raise, that C-Bet may well have to be on the order of 250 to 300; that means by raising you are saying you'd willingly commit about 400 chips, or about 27% of your chips to the pot on what stands to be a 1 pair hand, right?

Would you really want to get that deeply into your stack on a 1 pair hand in a multi-way pot then possibly FOLD?

Considering that, in general, it will take a BIGGER HAND to "win" a pot the more players that are in it, would you really feel "confident" about putting the rest of your stack in on a 1 pair hand when multiple palyers are still in the hand?

It is within your answers to these questions, and the info upon which you are basing your answers, whether or not your raise was a "good idea" here.

I can see reasons for making your raise, and I can also see reasons for limping to play "fit or fold" poker on the flop here, but the important thing at work is what YOU "see" as your possibilities...see?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
and while the C-Bet of the flop was a LITTLE sketchy, it still makes sense on a draw to A)See where I'm at, and illiminate other draws.
Now this is a clearer "mistake". Consider...

As you state it here, your thinking is a bit "off".

First -
You really should know "where you are at":

- You have Ace high, a gut shot draw (4 outs to the nuts), and 4 opponents any of whom holding ANY pair are well ahead of your hand right now.

- You have very little hope to improve to the best hand with the realatively weak "draw power" of your hand.

- You have a 4 way pot which has grown to 560 before you C-Bet into it, and any "standard" sized C-Bet is likely to push you right up against a committment point for your stack.

- You have very loose opponents, so getting all of them to fold to a C-Bet when there are 2 cards smack in the middle of a typical call range for loose opponents facing raises (the K and the J) is all but hopeless.

- You know that if they all do NOT fold, you probably are well behind.

These things all together should tell you that increasing your investment above the 7.5% or so you put in on your pre-flop raise is probably not a great idea.

Next -
As for "C-Betitng to eliminate other draws", that is a good thought, but this is a bad spot to use that thought. Think about it...

If you could get a hand like QT to fold here, you would "improve" your chances to make the best hand (by possibly making an Ace "good" for you).

If you could get hands like A2/AJ to fold, that too improves your chances of making the best hand with your increased number of "good outs".

So as I said, it is a good THOUGHT to have...

...but do you really think highly LOOSE opponents are giving up hands like QT or AJ here?

So in the end, all C-Betting into this multi-way pot is likely to do for you is get your more pot committed, thus costing you MORE chips. If that C-bet is going to be committing, it really should only be made if you feel strongly you hold the BEST hand, or can get everyone else to fold a good amount of time on the start stack size you had here.

It is true a continuation bet should be made with a very HIGH frequency (especially out of postion) in heads up situations.

The reason why this is true is because that C-Bet will tend to "represent" whichever hand you might raise that best "fits" a given flop: if it comes A or K high, you raised a hand like AK/AQ, if it comes 8 high, you raised a hand like JJ/QQ...see?

That representation can get the single opponent to fold often enough to make it worthwhile to try. When the pot is multi-way, the chance of getting ALL your opponents to fold with a C-Bet tends to be so small, that unless you have a strong made hand, or a very strong draw (nut flush plus a gut shot straight draw at a minimum unsually), you are probably better off checking to try getting a "free card", and only consider calling a very SMALL bet or even folding before you get yourself "stuck" to the pot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
When Kauk calls, I actually put him on his exact hand which is good, but also why the turn was SOOO wrong. If I KNOW he's sitting on AJ, that leaves me with 7 outs (The other 3 Q's and the 4 10's) I think.
If you put him on AJ "exactly", and that was the only hand you considered likely for him to have, you again (probably) made a "mistake". This is true even though the RESULTS showed that you were "right" in your "read".

With only 4 or 5 hands of paly, it is highly unlikely you have enough info on this opponent to tell whether or not he is on EXACTLY AJ here.

- He might be slow playing a hand like 22 by flatting your bet.
- He might be on a weak K and is un-willing to raise in case you have a bigger kicker.
- He might have QJ, meaning you had no "live" queen to draw at (but you do have a live A).
- He might just be amazingly BAD, have no pair at all, and has hopes of bluffing you off the hand.

My point is that you need to be looking at the entire "range" of possible hands that could conceivably call your bet here, and those are a lot more hands that exactly AJ.

I'd suggest you check out these videoes on PSO:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...3-Hand-Reading <= Hand Reading
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...etting-in-NLHE = Continuation Betting
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...dds-Calculator <= using the PSO hand replayer and odds calculator
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...-to-PokerStove <= Intro to "Poker Stove"
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ment-Decisions <= Committment decisions
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ge-Pots-Part-2 <= Play of hands in large pots

Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
And even though I'm still really shaky with Pot Odds and Outs and such, I think his bet was too large for me to have called, and I got REALLY lucky.
Yes, in large part you did get lucky insofar as you hit the Q, and that the Q was enough to give you the win.

To be honest with you, your biggest "mistake" hapened at the C-Bet, when you put yourself so deeply into the pot without very good odds to hit what you probably needed to draw at. By the time you made your C-Bet, you were pretty well "stuck" to the hand, and folding would have cost you ANY chance of hitting a river. You gotta remember, losing with a hand you think is best but isn't is not as BIG a "mistake" as putting a lot of your chips into a pot and then folding without giving yourself ANY further chance to win; you are far better off folding BEFORE you reach a point where a lot of your chips are in, than putting a lot of 'em in then "giving up".

Since you do note you are weak when thinking about poker odds, I suggest you try these things from the PSO library to help you become more familiar with odds and outs:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Odds-and-Outs
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...bilities-Video

Keep in mind please BandShooter, it in not the intent of those of us who are Hand Analysts to "run down" your play. If you are not aware of a lot of these concepts brought up here in these replies, everyone has to get familiar with them sometime to improve their decisions. PSO is really a GREAT place for you to be seeking that improvement, and I really hope you keep posting hands in this forum. Try those videos, they should make it easier to see the concepts pointed out here in this forum.

So until I see you again, instead of wishing you good luck, I wish you "Good Decisions"!

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 04:02 AM..
 
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Fri Nov 04, 2011, 01:22 PM
(#7)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Thanks All, Especially JDean. I take NO offense to anything posted man, actually it's quite the opposite. I've spent a lot of time thinking that my game was a lot better than it really is. I'm not nearly as tight as I thought I was, and I take far too many risks. It's my goal, to completely change that.

I think one of the few things people are willing to say about poker is this: I'm tired of being a losing player. I REALLY enjoy this game, but I don't want to just be out here feeding other people's BR's.

I appreciate the help, and am taking as much time as I can to learn. It does get a little overwhelming sometimes, but I'll take it one step at a time.

Thanks again.

L8r,
 
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Fri Nov 04, 2011, 05:46 PM
(#8)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
You have the right attitude. Instead of losing $ on the tables invest a few of them in either HoldEm Manager or Poker Tracker. The self analysis tools alone are +EV. They have a low stakes version at a discounted price.
 
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Fri Nov 04, 2011, 05:59 PM
(#9)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Ran through my 60 Day trial of PT3 and 15 Day of HM. Working my 30 Day of HM2. Will probably buy one at the end of this. So far I think I like PT3 the best.....
 

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