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Two hands from a 9 man

 
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Two hands from a 9 man - Sat Nov 05, 2011, 10:53 AM
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hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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On the bubble of a 1.50 9 man. The button pushes and I'm in the big blind. He was so short stacked that I felt that I had to call. Now that I have watched the hand I was only getting 1.5-1 so I'm not so sure.



This is a few hands later. I'm sitting on 8 bb's in the small blind and it folds to me. I was thinking that I should push with any two cards in this spot because the pot is already 400. Is that correct thinking? If I fold there am I just hoping for a min cash?
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 01:03 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hamburglarid View Post


On the bubble of a 1.50 9 man. The button pushes and I'm in the big blind. He was so short stacked that I felt that I had to call. Now that I have watched the hand I was only getting 1.5-1 so I'm not so sure.
Well, you have Q high. Generally I'm folding that to a shove unless I have some very convincing pot odds. Check what shoving range you need to be against for that to be a +EV call, and then compare that to what you believed his shoving range was. Plus ICM. I'm pretty sure this is a fold under most circumstances. Maybe even if he is shoving any two.

Quote:
This is a few hands later. I'm sitting on 8 bb's in the small blind and it folds to me. I was thinking that I should push with any two cards in this spot because the pot is already 400. Is that correct thinking? If I fold there am I just hoping for a min cash?
Technically yes, but I think you can let a couple hands at the bottom go to strengthen your range. Maybe push 90% instead of 100. Also depends on your read on the BB. Is he calling a lot? If so, tighten your range. If he's a folding station, then even your 24 is good enough to go here. Still, I think as long as you're over 5 BBs you are allowed to fold here. That's about where you lose all semblance of fold equity.
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 03:30 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hand #1:

Yeah, the guy will likely be shoving wide here.
Yeah, your QT is "ok" as a pot odds call versus many hands he might be jamming.
Yeah, if your villain is the short stack, he may be on a 75%+ range to jam approaching a "critical" 5BB threshold in his next blind.
Yeah, your QTs will tend to have about 56% equity versus a 75% range.
Yeah, your stack is the best "target stack" for him to use fold equity against, so that might argue for him to go even wider.

I still think the call is a bit too risky here. Consider...

Even if you read the villain as wide as a 75% range, you cannot "know" where within that range this hand he holds stands.
If you assess your equity versus the TOP HALF of a 75% range (37.5%), you find you are only on about 47.7% equity with QTs.
If this were a cash game, you'd probably want to take that "flip" getting 1.6 to 1 on a call all day long.
...but this is a SNG.

In this spot, by losing you will essentially "swap stacks" with your opponent.
You will fall to around 6.5BB, and you will be the one facing elimination.
With 6.5BB in the SB, you will be facing an all in situation sometime in the next 3 or 4 hands most likely, and with so little time before your stack loses most all its fold equity, it is not really a huge chance you are going to catch a hand you are going to "love" standing on.

If you FOLD however, you get away with about 11BB, and your short opponent only chips up to 7.5BB, with his BB approaching fast.
HE would be the one still under severe "blind pressure" if all he makes here is a blind steal, adn he is the one who is likely to be looking at yet another all in with 3 or 4 hands.
So your ICM considerations probably dictate you pass up the chance to get ITM immediately without a stronger hand.

I'd think because of your ICM considerations, you really want to be no worse than about 50/50 versus the top end of a shove range here, as that would let you rely on the pot odds overlay to off-set the added "risk" to your SNG "life" from losing.

Using poker stove, it looks like A7o/A8o or KTs is about the bottom end to take a straight up 50/50 chance versus the top half of a 75% jam range, although without using PS my "gut" was telling me I'd want soemthing like ATo or KJs at least. To be honest though, due to your stakc size, and how great a loss this represents for you, ICM calcs may well say you need to call only on an even BIGGER hand than these...

Hand #2:

Cannot really add much of anything to what Ori put up here.
The absolute bottom end of your hands can still be folded, after all in the next hand you are ALMOST as likely to get first in vig, and will almost certainly have a better hand.
Plus, waiting 1 hand lets you actually target the stack in the BB that is analogous to your loss: you'd be facng the guy with the msot to LOSE in making a call in-correctly.
With a bit over 1600 still in your stack, I think that your BTN may have been a better spot to jam.
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 04:38 PM
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hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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I'm going to have to start using pokerstove. Your point about my stack size is quite helpful, but it brings another question up. If I had a 30 bb+ stack is this still a fold?
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 06:01 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Maybe, maybe not...like many poker questions, it depends".

How you feel about your "skill" versus the remaining field should play a part in your assessment if you held 30BB and all other stacks were the same. If you feel you are BETTER than the field, you have less "need" to put chips at risk in what might stand to be race, or near race, type situation. If you feel there is a strong "threat" player, especially if it is the short stack who is the threat, then you may be better served courting those races when they will not take you out of the lead.

A lot would also depend on the villain. Consider...

If all stacks are the same except you hold a 30BB stack, the chances probably go up that he is not going to shove into you as lightly as he might shove into the 4k stacks, right?

Since we've already used poker stove to see you are a bit under a straight up race vs the top end of a 75% shove range, how do you think you might fare with QTs versus a 50% or so shove range, and the top end of that?

If the villain is not going to adjust his shove range to account for what might be a greater willingness on your part to CALL and risk only the amount that represents your "lead" on the field, then taking a 50/50 race vs the top end of his jam range is not as bad as it would be for your stack in the actual hand; at most you become 1 of 3 "big stacks" and still have someone on about half that size.

My PERSONAL risk/reward assessment pattern would probably call for me to be more willing to give up the chance to get ITM "now" in favor of keeping my chip lead intact, but that is a personal preference; I cannot really say that with a hand like A8o or KTs vs what may well be a 75% jam raise is "bad".

The "problem" with Independant Chip Model usage for SNG decisions is that in large part it is entirely math based. Part of the "math" is an "assumption" that all things are equal; quite often they are not. Math is good to know and use, but it can also lead you to mis-perceptions if the under-lying assumptions are poor. So ICM considerations MIGHT say "fold" all but pretty strong hands, but they could be reasons not to follow that exactly.

This may not seem to be a really "clear" answer, but in all honesty it is not really a clear question. So it all comes back to the simple statement: "it depends".
 
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Sat Nov 05, 2011, 06:30 PM
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hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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I understand, I'm asking a black and white, but I'm forgetting about the grey area.
 

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