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Good Bad push

 
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Good Bad push - Tue Nov 08, 2011, 05:55 PM
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m.bisland's Avatar
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I kinda liked my hand and he took to long after i checked! Iam sure he had an ace as he was calling with any ace.
 
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Tue Nov 08, 2011, 06:59 PM
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how long a player takes to react online.. is NOT something you want to look at as a tell. There are way too many outside things that can play into it. It may mean more live, but don't use it as a tell for online play.

When you flop 2nd pair, instead of betting, I'd have checked to the preflop raiser. I'd have checked the turn, hoping to hit the straight. Only having a pair of 8's with a bad kicker will normally not be the best hand in this situation.

Pushing when the K hits is not going to payoff much in the long run, as there are alot of hands that the opp would raise with preflop, then call the flop/turn bets due to having 2 over cards. Almost everytime you get called on the river, you will be beat in this spot.
 
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Tue Nov 08, 2011, 07:08 PM
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Calling the limp pre is not terrible, but doing that means your biggest "worry" you have when calling with a spec hand like this in MP is whether or not a raise BEHIND you is going to price you off the hand. You are effectively in MP here because there are 4 people amongst your 7 opponents who might raise after you've called...see?

When you see that raise happen, it is a somewhat small one, making it 600 to go.

Since the raiser has position on you, the only real way you "like" calling to continue is if you intend to use AGGRESSION at some point to increase your chances of winning here without being card dependant. That aggression means if you do flop well, you want to be thinking aobut whether you have enough to take the betting lead.

You DO exactly what you should if you elect to call the pre flop raise here M.Bisland, you take the betting lead on a flopped 2nd pair. Granted, that is WAY risky, as it sort of "locks" you into at least a 2nd barrel if the initial raiser flats, so you may want improvement to first that 2nd barrel. If you cannot fire it, you may well NOT have enough to flat if the villain turns his hand into a "float" using his postion, and you could just give up the 1600 which is only like 18% of your stack.

The turn does bring you improvement though, to an oesd to go along with your 2nd pair.
This is iffy to make your 2nd bullet though, as you are now semi bluffing with 1 to come.
Honestly though, I cannot say the play is "bad" if you think the villain will be on 2 bigs here quite a lot of the time, afterall, the board does NOT favor him connecting with that sort of hand.

I gotta say, when you did fire the 2nd bullet, you likely committed yourself.
So your check/shove on the river is actually pretty good.

To be 100% honest with you, that should NOT work very well for you very often, as the amount of your shove was a tiny % of the pot and the villain was getting monster odds to call. He was also stuck way deeply himself, so folding after he made that bet was simply atrocious.

The reason it is good for YOU is that sure, you'll lose your whole stack quite a bit of the time, but if you;ve crossed the committment point with a turn bet, checking the river with the intent of "giving up" is pretty bad. I'd rather check behind, with the intent of putting the rest of my chips in on whatever little alue I have, than checking with the intent to give up; at least some of the time I am snapping off bluffs. If I fold, I am never catching bluffs at all and losing a big chunk always as well.

So...

The thing to think about is maybe NOT firing that 2nd bullet without info to say there is a strong chance you do not need to hit your straight to make the best hand.

Other than that, you pretty much did exactly what you are "supposed" to do, and it worked out for you here.

Good on you.
 
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Tue Nov 08, 2011, 07:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
how long a player takes to react online.. is NOT something you want to look at as a tell. There are way too many outside things that can play into it. It may mean more live, but don't use it as a tell for online play.
I agree and dis-agree JWK...

Timing tells are one of the few on line tells.

if someone insta calls on a draw board, chances are they are drawing.

if someone tanks, it really depends on who they are, and what their normal patterns are tho, to read anything into that.

so I dis-agree that looking at the time it takes a player to decide is not imporant, but simply thinking immediately that taking a long time means weakness is a mistake. You gotta have info that tells you the villain tends to tank for a time when he is planning a bluff to make it relible.
 
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Tue Nov 08, 2011, 08:00 PM
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Don't really like the preflop limp. Great spot to raise the limper. Calling the button raise and proceeding based on my read. Flop bet is pretty pointless. It bloats the pot and pretty much forces you to commit to a pair of 8s. Als

Happy to put money in on that turn. River raise is reallyyyyyy thin. If you think he's on ace high here just call, do you really expect him to call the river jam with A high unimproved? I also don't think you're getting a 9 to fold. Maybe you do. But even so I think raising here is too thin as value/bluff to be +EV in a tournament. (In a tournament chips lost are worth more than chips won. So if you make a bet that needs to work like 30% of the time in cash game it actually needs to work more often in a tourney.

Contrived example:
Say you are getting 2 to 1 on a call, and you expect to win 34% of the time. In a cash game this is a +EV call. 34% you win 1, and 66% you lose 1/2, so .34-.33=+.01...but in a tourney you might be losing 1.2 chips for every 1. So .34(1)-.33(1.2)= .34-.39=-.05 so -EV to call and you actually need to win 40% of the time for it to be +EV.
 
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Tue Nov 08, 2011, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
I agree and dis-agree JWK...

Timing tells are one of the few on line tells.

if someone insta calls on a draw board, chances are they are drawing.

if someone tanks, it really depends on who they are, and what their normal patterns are tho, to read anything into that.

so I dis-agree that looking at the time it takes a player to decide is not imporant, but simply thinking immediately that taking a long time means weakness is a mistake. You gotta have info that tells you the villain tends to tank for a time when he is planning a bluff to make it relible.
The only way I look at them online... is... if something's out of the ordinary from what the opp was doing the entire time I've seen them. That absolutely CAN and probaby is a tell.
Especially if a player is at multiple tables, they could have easily misclicked, which can make their response take longer and if that could be the case, I'd not necessarily look at it as a tell.

With a draw board, they may be drawing, but I've done it just to make opps think I was... when I was holding the current NUTS. Changing that stuff up can really throw an opp off.

Online, I'll use bet sizes more than timing, to get tells on opps... from what I've seen, it works better that way. Live, I'll use more reaction and timing, than bet sizing.
 
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Wed Nov 09, 2011, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Don't really like the preflop limp. Great spot to raise the limper. Calling the button raise and proceeding based on my read. Flop bet is pretty pointless. It bloats the pot and pretty much forces you to commit to a pair of 8s. Als

Happy to put money in on that turn. River raise is reallyyyyyy thin. If you think he's on ace high here just call, do you really expect him to call the river jam with A high unimproved? I also don't think you're getting a 9 to fold. Maybe you do. But even so I think raising here is too thin as value/bluff to be +EV in a tournament. (In a tournament chips lost are worth more than chips won. So if you make a bet that needs to work like 30% of the time in cash game it actually needs to work more often in a tourney.

Contrived example:
Say you are getting 2 to 1 on a call, and you expect to win 34% of the time. In a cash game this is a +EV call. 34% you win 1, and 66% you lose 1/2, so .34-.33=+.01...but in a tourney you might be losing 1.2 chips for every 1. So .34(1)-.33(1.2)= .34-.39=-.05 so -EV to call and you actually need to win 40% of the time for it to be +EV.
I never knew this can someone explain a little more please

I did get luck and play a bit loose but i did finish 5th after loosing a 60k chip lead in 2 hands.
 
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Wed Nov 09, 2011, 06:41 PM
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That statement really SHOULD read: in an MTT, chips lost CAN be worth more than chips won.

But I'm sure Oriholic, by giving you his example, was intending to say that.

The REASON it is true is considered within his example:


Contrived example:
Say you are getting 2 to 1 on a call, and you expect to win 34% of the time. In a cash game this is a +EV call. 34% you win 1, and 66% you lose 1/2, so .34-.33=+.01...but in a tourney you might be losing 1.2 chips for every 1. So .34(1)-.33(1.2)= .34-.39=-.05 so -EV to call and you actually need to win 40% of the time for it to be +EV.


In a cash game, if you lose chips in a +eV situation, it does not effect your later ability to WIN chips; you simply re-load and keep on seeking those +eV spots

An MTT is different though. There are 2 thoughts at work in MTT/SNG play which are not at work in Cash games. They are:

1) Each chip in a short stack is more valuable in terms of cash-equity than each chip in a large stack.

If you find yourself in a spot where you are likely less than 50% to win, you must inculde in your assessment of your return-on-investment for continuing, not only the chips you may WIN, but also the effect of the chips you will (probably) lose.

Losing chips on a shorter stack, even with a correct odds price, may bring you a greater chance of busting out of the MTT later, than WINNING that "underneath bet" with odds may increase your chance of WINNING the MTT (or even making it ITM).

2) If you are contemplating calling All In with a "price", you must recognize that even if that price is extremely good, FOLDING takes away any opportunity of busting.

Simply put, You cannot go out if you are not all-in.

The more "pot odds" calls you make (and lose), the shorter your stack becomes. If you are going to lose a pot odds call 1.5 times for every 1 time you win it, even if you win 2 or 3 to 1 when you DO win, the sum total of your losses BEFORE you win one of these trials may well cripple your stack in relation to the blinds.

If your stack is very small in relation to the blinds, and in relation to the avg stack at your table and the event, your chances of making it ITM at all (let alone winning) are severely hampered.
Since you cannot "re-load" in an MTT as you can in a cash game, LOSING chips often has a more profound effect on your chances to make a profit than WINNG chips has.

See?
 

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