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99s correctly played?

 
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99s correctly played? - Thu Nov 10, 2011, 05:04 AM
(#1)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Hi guys,

just played an interesting hand on a 5NL table. But I am not really sure if I did everything right. I left out the river and the hand he had, just to not make you think results oriented.



Thank you for your thoughts!

Edit: I took much more time on my decisions, than the replayer shows it.

Last edited by Schnech; Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:06 AM..
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 05:21 AM
(#2)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
First of all whrong forum

Play was decent, but putting in so much money with 3 overcards on the board and a straight draw is not worth it I think.
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 05:29 AM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Was the villain new to the table?

I have no issue with the open or call pre although the raise to 50 cents by the opponent screams strength. You flop an open ended straight draw and the villain throws out a nearly 2/3 pot bet.

With 10 outs to improve I am not sure whether calling is +EV or not on the flop, but I am sure someone who knows will come along and tell us.

When the villain goes all in on the flop, you have to assume you are way behind, unless you have a strong read; personally I think it is -EV. I hope you hit the river and won. Update after it has been analysed by one of the evaluators.

Thanks,

TC
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 05:58 AM
(#4)
PSOGefallener's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 546
*Moved*
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 06:49 AM
(#5)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Sorry for the forum switch!

That what I was thinking. I don't really know if I am +EV on the flop. I am not always behind there, but most of the time I guess (given the range of hands he would 3 bet me with). On the flop actually I think I have 8 outs to the straight. I also think these are live, because I don't think he plays KQ like this (most of the time) and he would never do this with K9. So my Q & 8 are good most of the time I guess. The thing is, I'm getting close to 3 to 1 on the flop call and additionally - since he has just slightly under 1.5$ left on the turn I will never fold a turn shove.

But I don't know if this thinking process is correct. Actually I had one!
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 06:55 AM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hi Schnech,

I was counting the 2 outs for the 9s as well. I always get a bit confused with EV and pot odds so I am not 100% certain if your line was good or not.

I am sure one of the evaluators will be along shortly to give their opinion on this interesting hand.

TC
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 12:10 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
99 out of position's normally going to lead into a sticky situation and this one for sure qualifies.

On the flop, you need to put 69 cents into a pot of $1.79 (38.5%). You have 8 outs for the straight and 2 more for a set of 9's. If the other 9's are good outs (opp does not have a higher set), then you have 40% equity, without the 9's, you have 32%. If it were me, I'd make the flop call... as if you hit the straight, you could most likely stack the opponent.

The turn bet is $1.31 into a pot of $3.79 (34.6%). Once again, we look at the equity you have, if the 9's are good you now have 20% equity and if they are not good, only 16%.
Due to that, along with the fact that there are no chips behind for the opp (that you could get to go into the pot on the river).... I'm mucking it on the turn.

Last edited by JWK24; Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 12:31 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 01:49 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
my math is not the greatest, but it looks to me like you got 2.6/1 immediate odds but 5.5/1 (implied) on your 69 cent call, if all 10 outs are good your roughly at 4.5/1 on your draw, so good call, but when you miss, the villain only has 1.31 behind. Then you call 1.31 into a 3.79 pot you're only getting roughly 3/1(2.9/1) on your 4.5/1 draw ( assuming all 10 outs are still live ) so at my math, you didn't have odds to call and peel the turn with only 1 to come, and no further implied (as hes now all in) so you should have cut it loose on the turn.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 03:00 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 03:25 PM
(#9)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Thanks for the evaluation guys!

I was really curious about the turn call, but thought, that it would be too weak to fold this shove. But thanks for clarifying that.

This is how the hand turned out: 7 on the river gave me the straight, he turned over AQoff.

Thanks again. That was a fun one!
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 08:37 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Preflop: Definitely like iso-raising on the button over a limper. The call of the 3B is not good imo. The guy who 3b's is a short stack, you do not have nearly the correct implied odds to try and flop a set, and will have to fold many flops to his c-bet without one. If the 3b is laggy he's short enough that you can just 4b all in pre, if he's tight this is a fold.

Flop: It's pretty close, peeling isn't terrible since we're in position (if a brick comes off and he checks we'll have the best hand a decent amount of the time). If we were out of position we'd have to fold. The problem is we only have 4 clean outs, the 7's. Technically they're not actually clean since we would still lose to Q9, but they're essentially clean cause he's pretty much never showing us Q9 after 3b pre oop and us holding half the 9's. The other "outs" can't be fully counted really... a 9 gives us a set but we're still losing to bigger sets + any Q now makes a straight. If the Q comes, AK is certainly in his range. We have 10 outs that improve our hand, but we really only want a 7. If we were out of position this is a fold, if he barrels frequently it's also a fold since we just won't be able to call a turn bet. You simply have to be able to win sometimes without improving to make this call with such low implied odds, and you can only do that if he will frequently give up when called on the flop.

Turn: This is a fold for sure. We are only beating a stone bluff and it's very unlikely in this spot. Again our outs are questionable, even a Q isn't pretty as any K makes a better straight. And the pot odds are way short of what we'd need to draw even if we had clean outs.

Dave
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 08:40 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schnech View Post
I was really curious about the turn call, but thought, that it would be too weak to fold this shove.
Don't fall into this trap... poker isn't a pissing contest or macho expedition (although bless the players who think it is. )

When you have the worst of it and are in a bad situation, folding is a strong play, not a weak one.
 
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Thu Nov 10, 2011, 08:43 PM
(#12)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Don't fall into this trap... poker isn't a pissing contest or macho expedition (although bless the players who think it is. )

When you have the worst of it and are in a bad situation, folding is a strong play, not a weak one.
luv it
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 04:20 AM
(#13)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Thanks for this Dave. Really appreciate your analysis and the advise.

I just sometimes get the feeling that I am folding way too light. Well - in this particular spot - it would have been the correct play though!
 

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