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myths - Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:08 PM
(#1)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
Does anyone actually believe this myth about the ' long run ' ? It may ,and I mean may , apply to cash games but not tournaments in my opinion .Statistics and probabilities are not fact . I could be dealt pocket aces on every hand from here on in and get the all chips in heads up pre flop and still lose every time .

In the past 2 days I have flopped a set of Jacks or better 31 times ( including straights , flushes , and boats ) and have only won 7 of those hands , usualy to players who flat call 3 and 4 bets out of position with junk .
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:14 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
"Math is idiotic" -Barry G
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:21 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Does anyone actually believe this myth about the ' long run ' ? It may ,and I mean may , apply to cash games but not tournaments in my opinion .Statistics and probabilities are not fact . I could be dealt pocket aces on every hand from here on in and get the all chips in heads up pre flop and still lose every time .

In the past 2 days I have flopped a set of Jacks or better 31 times ( including straights , flushes , and boats ) and have only won 7 of those hands , usualy to players who flat call 3 and 4 bets out of position with junk .

Sorry to say but the good lord hates you

Grade b
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:24 PM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
"Math is idiotic" -Barry G

oooooo i remember that but why it was for a charity???? or to win a bet???


Grade b
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:27 PM
(#5)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
myths

thelangolier is my best friend
l love being sober
l didn't drink in Windsor
farts are wet and lumpy


truth

a bad run is a part of poker

hiccup
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:39 PM
(#6)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
can a 2 day sample be said to be a bad run?

grade b

Quote
"honestly who throws a shoe"

Mike Myers

Last edited by Grade b; Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:44 PM.. Reason: i felt like it or beer you pick
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:41 PM
(#7)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
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Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
Sorry to say but the good lord hates you

Grade b
No no no... it's not that. It's because poker stars is rigged! It's deliberately coded so good players lose, some guy on a forum said so

More seriously, on a timeline to infinity statistics are fact and apply to tournaments just as much as cash. Just takes a few more hands for tournaments

Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Fri Nov 11, 2011 at 09:46 PM.. Reason: math
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 09:47 PM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcrockpot View Post
No no no... it's not that. It's because poker stars is rigged! It's deliberately coded so good players lose, some guy on a forum said so

More seriously, on a timeline to infinity statistics are fact and apply to tournaments just as much as cash. Just takes a few more hands for tournaments

i was told you needed infinity squared............now i'm drunk....or confused
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 10:51 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Quote:
Originally Posted by effsea View Post
l love being sober
hiccup
when did hell freeze over??? LOL
 
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Fri Nov 11, 2011, 11:55 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Does anyone actually believe this myth about the ' long run ' ? It may ,and I mean may , apply to cash games but not tournaments in my opinion .Statistics and probabilities are not fact . I could be dealt pocket aces on every hand from here on in and get the all chips in heads up pre flop and still lose every time .

In the past 2 days I have flopped a set of Jacks or better 31 times ( including straights , flushes , and boats ) and have only won 7 of those hands , usualy to players who flat call 3 and 4 bets out of position with junk .
Some people may mis-interpret this as being "off base", but it is really the truth.

The "long run" IS a myth...at least in part.

Take a look:

Assume you play MTTs for 12 hrs per day, and your AVERAGE time is 2 hours per event.
You get roughly 50 hands per hour.
So you are averaging 100 hands per event.

That gives you roughly 600 MTT hands per day.

If you play EVERY DAY, you will make about 219,000 hands per year.

If the life expectancy of a human is 72 yrs, and you start playing at 21 yrs old, that means in your life you will play roughly 11,169,000 hands of MTT poker.

Now if you MULTI TABLE MTTs (something which may be less profitable than cash table multi table play), you can multiply this by a factor of 4 to 6 at most due to a somewhat limited schedule of events (if you want to play in a specific BI range).

So this gives us a reasonable "top end max" number of MTT hands played of around 67,014,000 in a 51 year poker life span.

Now...

If we take a scenario like AA v. KK, which is a scenario in MTT poker quite likely to result in a stack off on both deep and shallow money situations, we can start to get a "feel" for the sorts of things which can happen on 67 million hands.

First: we will receive AA or KK about 1 in 227.
Over the course of 67 million hands, that means we'd get one of those 2 hands about 295,215 times each.

Of those 295,215 times we have KK, about once every 45,121 hands we will run into AA.
So 6.54 times, we will call it 7, we hold KK and run into AA.

Of those 7 times, we can expect to LOSE about 80%, or 5.23 times.

This means that we can go for an ENTIRE LIFETIME of 51 years playing poker, and NEVER WIN with KK when we run into AA. So win just once, and we stand a good chance of staying "ahead" of our long term odds for the rest of our lives!

The amount of time we have as humans is simply TOO LIMITED to generate enough hands played to result in a significant amount of trials of extremely RARE situations, to allow our results to revert to the mean expectation.

If we lack sufficient trials to allow a reversion to the mean, we are essentially un-able to break even in the "long run" if the first few trials turn out badly for us. Ascribing our results to anything except "bad luck" would be the equivalent of assuming a coin flip is NOT a 50/50 chance, simply because on 1 trial of 10 flips, we saw it come up 7 or 8 heads.

So if a situation occurs only rarely, "the long run" really is a myth; people jsut do not live long enough, nor can they play enough poker, to let the "long run" happen for rare events.

For more common situations, like AK vs 33, or AT vs. KQ and their equivalents, our 67 million lifetime hands would give plenty of chances for us to revert very CLOSE to expected outcomes, but then people really do not look super-closely at "common" situations when they are either searching for "bad beats", or for when they are trying to remain phlegmatic about cooler hands, do they?

As for the OP's posited scenario, flopping a set of Js or better, let's break THAT down...

Let's assume that a set is BETTER than trips, because a set will have a chance to be the nut hand, whereas trips will not have any chance of being the nuts on the flop.

The chance of flopping a set is 11.8% when you start with a pocket pair.
You will start with a pocket pair JJ+ roughly 1.8% of the time.
This means 1.8% of 11.8% is the amount of time you will flop a set of JJ+; or .21%
That will happen about 14,073 times in a 67 mill hand "poker life".

You will flop a full house about .09% of the time, about 6031 times in your poker life.

Without even looking any further, we can see with a lifetime chance of seeing around 20,000+ instances within the range of occurences you describe, isolating just 31 instances, and the results of those instances, cannot give us a real estimate of whether or not we will revert more to the mean win expectation in those "big hand" situations on future play.

As tough as it may be to accept, the losses you describe here really are NOT so "rare" that a 7 win in 31 trials leaves no room to revert to the mean win expectation within a lifetime of playing. That means be-moaning your current "bad luck" by thinking "OMG! I WILL NEVER BREAK EVEN!" is really self-defeating.

What I CAN say is that if you use your current "bad run" as an "excuse" (or a "reason" if you prefer) to QUIT poker, you will guarentee that your results never have a CHANCE to even out in the "long run"...

What you should really be doing is trying to put your losses into perspective, not instantly assuming "statistics are a lie". Statistics CAN be mis-leading, and the "long run" may be TOO LONG for a human life time to achieve, but losing with set over set, or with a flush to a better flush, are really not as rare as you might think.

Last edited by JDean; Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 12:03 AM..
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 12:15 AM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Does anyone actually believe this myth about the ' long run ' ? It may ,and I mean may , apply to cash games but not tournaments in my opinion .Statistics and probabilities are not fact . I could be dealt pocket aces on every hand from here on in and get the all chips in heads up pre flop and still lose every time .

In the past 2 days I have flopped a set of Jacks or better 31 times ( including straights , flushes , and boats ) and have only won 7 of those hands , usualy to players who flat call 3 and 4 bets out of position with junk .
yes you could but still does mean that statistics are lieing.

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...ces-Experiment

Last edited by Grade b; Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 12:17 AM.. Reason: added a link
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 01:51 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
when did hell freeze over??? LOL
He said it was a myth.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 02:21 AM
(#13)
dale442's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 553
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
He said it was a myth.

A "Reborn" east ender me thinks....


Dale

....or not
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 05:08 AM
(#14)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Statistically, any cards do win the % of time they are supposed to.

However this is a global phenomenon, not a personal one.

So, if somebody else in the poker world is winning more than their fair %, you have to lose more often to make up for it.

This makes you are an 'unlucky' player. You might as well just give it up now.




Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 09:18 AM
(#15)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Does anyone actually believe this myth about the ' long run ' ? It may ,and I mean may , apply to cash games but not tournaments in my opinion .Statistics and probabilities are not fact . I could be dealt pocket aces on every hand from here on in and get the all chips in heads up pre flop and still lose every time .

In the past 2 days I have flopped a set of Jacks or better 31 times ( including straights , flushes , and boats ) and have only won 7 of those hands , usualy to players who flat call 3 and 4 bets out of position with junk .
On a more serious note, you may want to also look in the videos section for some guidance. I was thinking about the managing a short to midium stack in MTT's to start with by "the langolier".

Reading betten the lines I would guess the also in the last two days your percieved table image was not good or you were playing some truely bad players.

For the record could we know what tornies you were playing? What stlye were you playing Tight or loose agressive or passive. Did you have a relitive big stack or a short stack?

Grade b
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 01:20 PM
(#16)
IpushHard's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 38
BronzeStar
To me? Once you make the decision, math is out the window.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 02:54 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
People that talk about things like they know,only betray those that I spoke to in private.
Only goes to prove my points are valid,thank you!
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 05:04 PM
(#18)
RedLetterman's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Some people may mis-interpret this as being "off base", but it is really the truth.

The "long run" IS a myth...at least in part.

Take a look:

Assume you play MTTs for 12 hrs per day, and your AVERAGE time is 2 hours per event.
You get roughly 50 hands per hour.
So you are averaging 100 hands per event.

That gives you roughly 600 MTT hands per day.

If you play EVERY DAY, you will make about 219,000 hands per year.

If the life expectancy of a human is 72 yrs, and you start playing at 21 yrs old, that means in your life you will play roughly 11,169,000 hands of MTT poker.

Now if you MULTI TABLE MTTs (something which may be less profitable than cash table multi table play), you can multiply this by a factor of 4 to 6 at most due to a somewhat limited schedule of events (if you want to play in a specific BI range).

So this gives us a reasonable "top end max" number of MTT hands played of around 67,014,000 in a 51 year poker life span.

Now...

If we take a scenario like AA v. KK, which is a scenario in MTT poker quite likely to result in a stack off on both deep and shallow money situations, we can start to get a "feel" for the sorts of things which can happen on 67 million hands.

First: we will receive AA or KK about 1 in 227.
Over the course of 67 million hands, that means we'd get one of those 2 hands about 295,215 times each.

Of those 295,215 times we have KK, about once every 45,121 hands we will run into AA.
So 6.54 times, we will call it 7, we hold KK and run into AA.

Of those 7 times, we can expect to LOSE about 80%, or 5.23 times.

This means that we can go for an ENTIRE LIFETIME of 51 years playing poker, and NEVER WIN with KK when we run into AA. So win just once, and we stand a good chance of staying "ahead" of our long term odds for the rest of our lives!

The amount of time we have as humans is simply TOO LIMITED to generate enough hands played to result in a significant amount of trials of extremely RARE situations, to allow our results to revert to the mean expectation.

If we lack sufficient trials to allow a reversion to the mean, we are essentially un-able to break even in the "long run" if the first few trials turn out badly for us. Ascribing our results to anything except "bad luck" would be the equivalent of assuming a coin flip is NOT a 50/50 chance, simply because on 1 trial of 10 flips, we saw it come up 7 or 8 heads.

So if a situation occurs only rarely, "the long run" really is a myth; people jsut do not live long enough, nor can they play enough poker, to let the "long run" happen for rare events.

For more common situations, like AK vs 33, or AT vs. KQ and their equivalents, our 67 million lifetime hands would give plenty of chances for us to revert very CLOSE to expected outcomes, but then people really do not look super-closely at "common" situations when they are either searching for "bad beats", or for when they are trying to remain phlegmatic about cooler hands, do they?

As for the OP's posited scenario, flopping a set of Js or better, let's break THAT down...

Let's assume that a set is BETTER than trips, because a set will have a chance to be the nut hand, whereas trips will not have any chance of being the nuts on the flop.

The chance of flopping a set is 11.8% when you start with a pocket pair.
You will start with a pocket pair JJ+ roughly 1.8% of the time.
This means 1.8% of 11.8% is the amount of time you will flop a set of JJ+; or .21%
That will happen about 14,073 times in a 67 mill hand "poker life".

You will flop a full house about .09% of the time, about 6031 times in your poker life.

Without even looking any further, we can see with a lifetime chance of seeing around 20,000+ instances within the range of occurences you describe, isolating just 31 instances, and the results of those instances, cannot give us a real estimate of whether or not we will revert more to the mean win expectation in those "big hand" situations on future play.




Holy Moly !

I would work and / or live in a skyscraper, mud hut or mine engineered by you.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 05:23 PM
(#19)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcrockpot View Post
No no no... it's not that. It's because poker stars is rigged! It's deliberately coded so good players lose, some guy on a forum said so

More seriously, on a timeline to infinity statistics are fact and apply to tournaments just as much as cash. Just takes a few more hands for tournaments
Accusations such as this have been flying around for years but none have been proven. People, like TheLangolier, who have100k+ hands see percentages close to expectations. Conclusion? PokerStars is not rigged.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 05:24 PM
(#20)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
All I want to know JD is did you use a calculator or is that "off the top of ur head" lol.....

R0ck's theorem states when you put your chips in the pot THEY ARE UP FOR GRABS!!!! 'nuff said!
 

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