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equity??????

 
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equity?????? - Sat Nov 12, 2011, 07:25 AM
(#1)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
i had posted a hand where my 3BB shortstack shove was called by 84 and i asked why.

well here is something similar but now i am on the other side.

i am in the BB with 7,5 BB left after paying the blind. the button shoves and i figure him to steal. most players are trying to pick up as many as they can get from anything from K9s+ KJo and anything better or connected.

he made my potodds some just over 2:1 and stove calculated an equity of 53,25% and a win % of just over 51% against any 2 cards!!

so am i correct to figure i have +equity here??????

did i do the right thing because i figured his shove a bully move to steal

 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 07:40 AM
(#2)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I don't think your pot odds are 2:1.

I reckon you have to pay 7,603 to try to win the 10,003 (7,603+2400) that is available for you to win in the pot already.

And your 53% equity is against any 2 cards, so if you range them tighter it will be lower.

I am not good at these calcs though, so I would wait for one of the experts to give you exact figures.

Although the shove is a bigger stack, he is only bigger than the blinds, and is still risking about 2/3 his stack against a call from either blind, so I would not expect too light a shove, though with 12-13BB it could be any 2 cards. It depends on what type of tournament this is and what stage it is at. I would call this often in a regular MTT, (if I read it as shoving light) but not in PSO or in Satellites.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 08:08 AM..
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 08:34 AM
(#3)
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
this was a normal mtt i believe 0.55 buy-in and we where already in the money

that's what i missed in my argue lol his stack was bigger then mine and indeed makes the odds different damned then i am on wrong end here lol
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 11:05 AM
(#4)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Your question is do you have Equity and of course it depends on what you range him on. Against any 2 random cards you have equity. But ...... you are racing against everything! Now with that being said, Nash Equilibrium charts show that your hand is actually a call although very close!
I am not calling here but since I am short and depending on the read I have on this Villain I am winning 33% of the time if both my cards are live!

Gidee Up!
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 11:36 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
(Super-Moderator)
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Ed, your 7603 and 10003 numbers are exactly correct (76%). To make the play +EV, you need to have 76% equity in the hand.

Aganist ATC, you have 53% equity, against (any A, broadway, suited connector, pair) you only have 38.7% equity.

Due to that, you're going to be -EV to call it, so I'd muck it and find a better situation to push with.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 12:55 PM
(#6)
IpushHard's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 38
BronzeStar
I dont know much about the numbers, but with that short of a stack I would have strongly considered shoving that hand before I had to absorb the blinds again but J9 off wouldn't be a high comfort shove. I'd feel better about... any ace, any suited connectors, or any pair considering the range that would call me.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 12:56 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Ed, your 7603 and 10003 numbers are exactly correct (76%). To make the play +EV, you need to have 76% equity in the hand.

Aganist ATC, you have 53% equity, against (any A, broadway, suited connector, pair) you only have 38.7% equity.

Due to that, you're going to be -EV to call it, so I'd muck it and find a better situation to push with.
Ed your numbers are correct, but JWK typo'd the calculation, you don't need 76% equity... break even equity is calculated based on the final total pot size

You're calling 7603 to win a final total pot size of 17606, so you need 7603/17606 = .4318 or 43.2% roughly.

The way you can check the math to verify you have the right break even point is this:
43.2% of the time you win the 10003 for a net chip gain of 10003*.432 = +4321.3 chips
56.8% of the time you lose your 7603 call for a net chip loss of 7603*.568 = -4318.50 chips
The EV of the call if you have this equity is the sum of the two, which is zero when the equity is break even. (It's slightly off from zero in the math above due to rounding of the equity %)
 

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