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Good check ?

 
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Good check ? - Sat Nov 12, 2011, 07:11 PM
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m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
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Thought id check the river to look weak turned out ok. was the hand played right or would i normally raise in this spot.
 
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Sat Nov 12, 2011, 07:29 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Reads will mean everything here.
If your read says the opp will bet, then it's ok to check/raise, but you have to be 100% sure that the opp will bet.
If you're not sure the opp will bet, then you need to make a value bet on the river.

You could also raise more preflop, instead of a min raise.
 
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Sun Nov 13, 2011, 04:05 AM
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Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Reads will mean everything here.
If your read says the opp will bet, then it's ok to check/raise, but you have to be 100% sure that the opp will bet.
If you're not sure the opp will bet, then you need to make a value bet on the river.

You could also raise more preflop, instead of a min raise.
What a great and solid advice

Pref you either raise it solid or just flat, and i am way more into making strong raise than just flatting - it's a tournament and we won't have many occasion to build our stack. It will also tell us if we are beat as QQ+, AK will go all-in and we can cheaply get out of this mess instead of losing whole stack on Q84o flop.

You hit, you continue your aggression for 1/2 pot since it's pretty dry. His call OTF doesn't mean much, may very well be a float so I don't worry here. After he call OTT I put him on a pair between A and J and he simply doesn't believe you have an A in your hand and just air-balling to represent it. River only allows us to keep the aggression, if our read is right and he is on pocket, he should call our all-in on the river as this A makes it literally impossible for us to have it so we can safely keep on betting to rep it.
If we check, we show that we give up, and only reason for him to bet would be if he called us with complete nothing all the way and will now decide to bluff at it, which is going to be rare.

So yea, all-in OTR, keep telling the story he didn't believe in.
 
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Sun Nov 13, 2011, 06:26 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m.bisland View Post


Thought id check the river to look weak turned out ok. was the hand played right or would i normally raise in this spot.
As played, you got the absolute maximum value you could have gotten.
This means the result was as good as it gets for you.

The thing it, it took a pretty hope-less bluff attempt by the villain (jamming over your check, after you had invested 41% of your stack in the pot), to get you that max value.
Can you really expect such a huge mistake by opponents every time?

If you lack the information which will tell you what types of exact mistakes an opponent is likely to take, you are far better off making a play which will result in a positive result in the widest number of circumstances for you.

Let's look at the entirety of your hand...

PRE-FLOP:

When the villain makes a min raise, why do you make a min 3bet?

Are you "scared" he is on a pp, and you will miss the flop? If so, a flat call get you to a flop that you can play fit or fold poker with a smaller amount that you will be folding away.

Are you scared he has AK/QQ/KK/AA and you want to trigger a big 4bet? If so, you should fold your AQo and save yourself money.

Are you trying to get extra value from your AQo because you think it is the best hand? If so, a more standard type raise, making it around 250 to 350 to go will get more value into the pot for you, serve to isolate you on the min raiser better, and also is not overly committing for you. You will also have a pretty clear TURN decision, as a standard C-BET would have you right near a committment point, and leave you all but un-bluffable if you bet the turn.

So to make the best play in the widest range of possible scenarioes, you should have 3bet more on the flop, flat called, or folded.

FLOP:

Your flop action, lead betting half pot on continuation, is entirely standard, as is the best action you can take in the widest range of circumstances.

This board has a couple of potential weak draws, 1 decent possible draw, and figures to hit a 3bet range pretty hard so flopped sets may not feel a need to wait to raise you.

Your half pot bet looks very inviting to a QT or KQ type hand, as it appears to be a small part of your stack, and even players aware of odds may mistakenly think they have a ton of implied odds to draw at you for a somewhat small bet.

It is also inviting for 2nd pair type hands, and hands like QQ/KK that played "tricky" and did not 4bet you; a bet of this size can easily be made by a lot of players with just a J, and not an A.

You sizing choice also denies odds to the strongest likely draws against you, so it is going to lead a lot of times to WORSE hands making a "mistake call"; that adds value for you.

TURN:

Your turn bet (half pot again) is highly committing, as it takes you up around a 41% invesment in the pot.
This is fine though, as you should not be really worried about NOT having the best hand on this action pattern a whole lot of the time.
(If you are worried about having 2nd best here, especially without a hugely specific read, you are probably playing "scared poker")

Maintaining a half pot bet is quite nice, as it looks like you are still not entirely sure of your hand strength. The 2nd Ace seems to lower the likelihood of you holding an Ace, so players who lose track of your stack size can easily call this on weaker hands.

River:

Meh...hate the play here.

The 3rd Ace has to make any one with any hand on this board almost positive you do not have an Ace.
Any J that has been tagging along because he didn;t believe you have an Ace has now seen any kicker issues resolved for him.
Any draws now have no hope of catching up with zero cards to come, and the fact that you have bet every street up to the river has GOT to imply you are on some sort of a made hand.

The pot has also grown to the point that an all in by you is going to lay right around 2.33 to 1 odds for a call, and ANY full house is going to face a difficult time passing up that price.

Even if you have a read that the villain will JAM into this river for you if you check a good portion of the time, you cannot be certain he will this time. This means you pretty much should bet something no matter what.

Personally, I'd favor a river jam much more often than not for the reasons I stated above.
A smaller than all in river bet will make it abundantly clear you cannot fold, so about the only hands which can reasonably raise you all in would be QQ/KK, although naked Js and even 9s/TT or lesser pocket pair hands might call.

Either way, anyone who is aware of committment thresholds, and also has watched your stack must know a bluff has almost zero chance of working here, so they should be un-likely to try it.

As it played out, you got pretty lucky to run into an opponent who was not aware of the hope-lessness of a bluff in this spot, and he put you all in when you checked.
More often than not though, you are going to cost yourself a ton of value with a check on the river here.
 

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