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Gave up on hand but.....

 
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Gave up on hand but..... - Tue Nov 15, 2011, 07:42 PM
(#1)
Deleted user



Not sure if this hand replayer will work for me on the first try so be patient if you do not see a hand.

I just want to check my thinking on the river of this hand and see if it stands up.

Here are the two players stats and some reads:

Kubbiak(Slovakia) VPIP 47% PFR 11% Aggression 58%
He folds cbets a high percentage and if he calls goes to showdown 56% and wins 75%.

Petalo999(Greece) VPiP 37% PFR 0% Aggression 29%
He had been folding 100% to big blind steals and think he only called because other villain did.
No stats on cbet folds but he tended to go to showdown a lot and lose.


So I looked to steal preflop or flop and if called would check it down if I did not improve.
I bet flop to test the waters,these two would not recognize the difference in sizing.
They both call and I presume that one has a flush so I check the turn.
River comes and I check thinking I can take it down still and if one of them bets I can fold.

So I check behind and the Kubbiak bets out and Petalo999 folds. I had my hand over the fold button but I decided to replay the hand in my head like I should be anyways and see if I should be folding.Honestly I was leaning towards folding before I started thinking about the hand.

Im the preflop agressor and continue on the flop,the turn is checked all around.
So I started to think possible steal here since me and Petalo99 have shown no aggression.

Now I start thinking what he could have? AJs maybe but thats pretty specific! Jack something suited? Not likely with the preflop action and the flop might scare off a weak heart hand and think he would lean towards checking behind on the river with 2 other players that could easily out flush him. So I left AJs in his range for flush and started looking at other hands he could have.
I wrote off Fullhouse since I would expect him to show some aggression PF or on the flop to protect his hand. On the turn I find weak players will often bet to see where they are at if they had a good hand and are now worried where they are at. So nothing on the turn or flop,wrote off the fullhouse or trips. So AJs? I did think it was possible and called.

Thoughts?
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 07:54 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I think you played it pretty well, but I'd have done one thing differently.
Like the fact that you raised to open.
Like the c-bet on the flop (if nothing else, so you're taking the lead in the hand and have an OESD).
Checking the turn, with 3 hearts and a pair... no problem, I would too.

When the fourth heart hits the river, while you can check/call, I'd have led with a value bet.
There are only 2 hearts higher than you and if someone had, say AhQ or AhK, they'd probably value bet the turn. The opp behind you had a 58% aggression factor and played passively, so I would not be putting them on a full house. With the 58%, I'd have expected them to bet it.

When you check and they make about a 1/2 pot bet on the river... I'd be expecting a low heart (small pkt pair with a heart) or Kx or Qx. If someone has the J of hearts, then I'd pay them off the 440 on the river... if not, then it's my pot.
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:07 PM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Fine as played but I'd lead the river rather than let him check back all his pairs. Surprising to see him bet a Q there. Seems pretty pointless.
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:12 PM
(#4)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Blinds are 20/40 and these guys have VPIP close to 40% and over 40%. To my mind that means they are extremely loose and playing way too many hands so I like the preflop raise. Open ended straight draw on the flop so I like the slightly less than half pot bet.

On the turn I am not a big fan of the check, you have outs to the straight and flush so I would be betting not only for value, but putting it in the minds of the villains that I have hit the flush good.

The river makes things really difficult and you end up making a crying but ultimately well thought out call. The villain could have had a higher heart but honestly with such a high VPIP is that really likely?

I am actually coming across a lot more play like this in the last few weeks, and it hurts when they hit a hand with ATC, against a good hand. I got sucked out this evening by calling an all in on the flop with AQ, on a board of A,J,10.; villain had A8 and hit an eight on the turn and river. But that's poker and you just have to accept it and move onto the next hand.

Nice hand for analysis I think and lots of information, what type of tourney was it, Cookies?

Cheers,

TC
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:31 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
My bad it is the Big $4.40,thought it was a interesting hand to look at as well.
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:36 PM
(#6)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
shot taking again huh?
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:37 PM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Run Deep Cookies It would be great to see a big win from a member of the forum.

Cheers

TC
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:40 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
No its iin my bankroll playing $3.50s and the biggers $2.20,$4.40 and sometimes the $3.30.
Running so bad in the 18mans lately I thought it was a good idea to play these to bump my roll a little.

I did play a$33 last week and got donked early..lol No more shots like that.
 
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Tue Nov 15, 2011, 08:43 PM
(#9)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
hahaha knew it lol
 

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