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Kings Kracked

 
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Kings Kracked - Wed Nov 16, 2011, 06:05 AM
(#1)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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With sixteen players remaining in a ninety man I get crushed with kings. A better player might get away from this hand with some chips remaining, I don't know. I know what was going through my head: I have twenty big blinds, I have kings, I'm going with this hand. When he check-raised the flop I thought he had eights, nines or tens and decided that he was good. I think that this may just be a cooler, but I want to know if I should even consider folding my kings.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 07:04 AM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Too small bet pref, you should bet more in line of 900.

Board comes dry - and i don't like betting it. We chase out most of worse hands, we don't get much value from anything (unless he is stupid and called with crap like 78/A7 and so on) so because of this dryness, i opt to just check it. It will also save us from being in horrible spot - getting pushed on that flop as this polarizes his hand, while otherwise we would just call his bet and let him keep on bluffing on upcoming streets.

As played, when he pushes his hand immediatly polarizes between complete air and 55/77. There is nothing else in his range. So this comes to read, did he ever pull bluffs before? Is he tight? Is he loose? I fold to tight players, i call loose ones.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 07:48 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hamburglarid View Post


With sixteen players remaining in a ninety man I get crushed with kings. A better player might get away from this hand with some chips remaining, I don't know. I know what was going through my head: I have twenty big blinds, I have kings, I'm going with this hand. When he check-raised the flop I thought he had eights, nines or tens and decided that he was good. I think that this may just be a cooler, but I want to know if I should even consider folding my kings.
This looks like a cooler really...

About the only thing you may have done differently would have been to raise a more standard amount, say around 900 to go, pre flop. The problem with this is if you had been palying small ball, and the 2.25BB raise was standard for you, this would have introduced a dis-connect in your bet patterns. That dis-connect may well result in you not getting action with a hand you definately want action on, and that would be bad. I also do not think if you had made it 900 to go pre flop you are necessarily folding out a hand like 77 here. So while the larger pre flop raise would build the bigger pre flop pot you want, it would also make it all but impossible to get away from your hand on the flop after you've made any reasonable C-Bet.

Another possible thing you might have done would be to not launch that 70% pot bet on the flop. The board is really not favorable to SB hands playing draws out of position, as many of the hands which may flop draws here are not very play-able oop vs. a UTG raiser. After your small ball pre flop raise though, even a half pot bet is going to see you about 22% invested in the pot, and with a major over pair it would be pretty hard not to go to the wall if the remaining villain has given even an inkling of a sign that he might semi-bluff a draw on a C/R. Granted, if this is a micro stakes game, players who can effectively semi bluff on a C/R oop are very RARE, and a C/R here is much more likely to be true strength, but not being sure whether he flatted you pre with a hand like 88/99/TT/JJ, or whether he did flop a set is going to probably lead you to stack off anyway.

COULD you have possibly found a fold here if you had bet smaller on the flop, yes you could have. But I really do not think it would be easy, and it would have taken more info on the opponent than you give us here to find that fold. As you state, it is entirely reasonable at the mircro stakes level to think this guy has a board over pair smaller than your KK, and that it never crossed his mind he might be behind with those hands. And as you saw, it is also entirely possible he flopped a set and was sure he held the best hand too...

The fact it is so hard to tell which is here, and the fact no matter what you do you have a good chunk of your stack in the pot when you find out, means that this is a cooler.

Last edited by JDean; Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 07:50 AM..
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 09:54 AM
(#4)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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Okay, I felt that it probably was a cooler. There isn't much I can do about the preflop raise... 2.25 is my standard at this level and at least one or two players would know something was up if I changed it to 3x I think. I understand what you are saying about the 70% pot bet though. At the time I was thinking that I wanted to build a pot so that I could get it in on a later street if he had anything. The main problem I had here is that it is at least as likely he has 88, 99, 1010, JJ or even A7 as a set. At the micros you see players do this a lot.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 10:05 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hamburglarid View Post
Okay, I felt that it probably was a cooler. There isn't much I can do about the preflop raise... 2.25 is my standard at this level and at least one or two players would know something was up if I changed it to 3x I think. I understand what you are saying about the 70% pot bet though. At the time I was thinking that I wanted to build a pot so that I could get it in on a later street if he had anything. The main problem I had here is that it is at least as likely he has 88, 99, 1010, JJ or even A7 as a set. At the micros you see players do this a lot.
Please do not get me wrong Hamburgularaid, I am NOT advocating a half pot bet instead of the 70% pot bet BECAUSE it makes a fold possible for you. I am advocating the half pot bet because it is more likely to get called by WORSE hands. You WANT those calls.

70% pot blows a lot of potential draws (mainly broadway hearts) out of the water here, unless the villain is a very loose caller. You do NOT want that to happen. If you CAN get calls by draws because this villain is loose enough, then 70% is a far preferable bet to a half pot bet...you WANT to build the pot if possible.

70% flop bets are also not "sustainable", meaning they are not a bet sizing choice you really want to make as your standard. You often benefit in keeping your C-Bets to a standard sizing, much the same way you benefit by keeping your pre flop raise sizing standard. Obviously, post flop there is more "wiggle room" to be exploitative depending on opponents (since you know who is still in), but the theory holds true on C Bets as well as pre flop raise sizing if you've not recognized anything really exploitable that will change your C-Bet sizing.

The side benefit of the half pot bet tho is if the villain calls weakly, and the turn brings a heart, then you CAN (possibly) find a fold if you had bet 50% and not 70% pot AND if your stack is deep enough.

In this spot, your stack is not nearly deep enough for that though, so the only reaosn I brought up 50% pot on the flop is that a bet of that size is more likely to get a looser call that you want...

See?

Last edited by JDean; Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 10:11 AM..
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 05:48 PM
(#6)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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Yes, I see. My typical c-bet is 50-60% pot, but sometimes I go up to 70%. I see how a 50% pot bet called is more valuable than a 70% folded to. I was looking at it the wrong way.
 

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