Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

6Max NLHE - Bet sizing 2nd Nuts for river reraise

 
Old
Default
6Max NLHE - Bet sizing 2nd Nuts for river reraise - Wed Nov 16, 2011, 06:40 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I hit the 2nd nuts on the river in this hand, full house against what I suspect is a flush that will pay me off. Possibly debatable if I should have stayed in the hand when I suspected my 2 pairs were behind on the turn, but when I hit on the river I am wanting to make sure I get some extra value.

The opponent's river bet is quite small, $0.12 into a $0.42 pot (this does not show well on the replayer) so I thought they might be inducing a shove, but I did not want to scare them off.

I have chopped the hand just before my bet and am interested in what size bet you would all recommend to get paid off here.





Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 06:46 AM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Nov 16, 2011, 07:10 AM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Raise OTF, many scary cards can come and you don't want multiple villains.

Calling OTT is fine, but raising is even better. If we get re-raised, we fold.

OTR he is either bluffing or got a flush/strong Q. Either way will pay us a big bet here so go for at least pot-sized one. You may even want to overbet it.
 
Old
Default
Wed Nov 16, 2011, 08:31 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Wow...river value raise decision...tough without reads as this is a highly exploitative play.

A lot of your decision will be based on what they have seen from you, assuming they are watching your play at all.
Specifically, has your past play shown you might be likely to raise up a naked Q here, with the 3 club board, or would you be more likely to flat the river with a hand like that?

I will be really honest, unless you know the FTA villain will take the lead on a flopped draw, I am not really certain he is on a club flush here. This sniffs more like a 9 with maybe 1 club to me, or something like TT/88/77 type hand (if he will flat along rather than raise it with mid pp). I say this because his bet sizes descend on every street, including the river. If he were more confident, each call you and BigFish make should encourage him to bet at least the same proportional amount. Plus, if he puts you or Bigfish on a Q (quite likely if you are both calling) and he has a flush, he can probably extract more from at least 1 of you by sizing his bet at least proportionally to his near half pot turn bet if not larger on the river. His actual bet sizing leaves you plenty of room to shove the paired board scare card, to try representing the boat (if all you had was a Q), so a 12c river bet on a flush puts him in an ugly spot really. Plus...

Your past hand posts here strike me that you are NOT one to rush out a raise on trips when trip could easily be beaten so if you've shown that in your play, it is un-likely he can induce you with a small bet if all you have is a Q.

(note: this is a good comment, as rushing a raise out there on just a Q would be uber thin value with someone flatting along behind you, and highly risky, especially with a BB hand that probably raises good kickers. You strike me as a better player than that.)

Bigfish behind you smells like a JT with maybe Jc, but he could well be on a bigger hand, like a Q. There is even the chance that he flopped a set like 3s, but I'd count that as somwhat rare. He is calling, and you give no real info on him, so it is really hard to tell. If either of them have you beat with a Q9 though, it is probably BigFish.

I'm certainly raising, and I really want to try to configure the raise so that BOTH call if possible, but if BigFish is a chaser and has JT (as I suspect at least someof the time), then he cannot call anything on the river. So I'm sizing to make it possible for Bosss to make a crying call if he does not have the flush.

I'm of a mind to say that raising to make it 40c to 50c to go should get called by Bossss a decent part of the time.
If he does have the flush, this may also look like a weak bet by you, and he may raise.

If you are lucky and Bigfish has the case Queen, he may even RAISE that that seemingly weak raise (if he isn't a very good player), but with a Q he is at least calling that amount.

An alternate would be to OVER RAISE (Somewhere north of $1 to go), and try to despretely make it look like you are bluffing. Truth be told though, this would be the bet that fold out flushes if ANY bet would do so. so without more solid info on the players aobut how willing they are to not believe a big bet is really strong and not a bluff, I'd stick to around 40c to 50c to go.
 
Old
Default
Wed Nov 16, 2011, 05:07 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks to Puciek and JDean for your thoughts.

I realise I was thinking about the oppositions potential holdings and their playing style, but not really considering what image they had of me and how they would view my line. Live in the hand I had a feeling one of the opponents might call a shove with a flush, but I just went with a raise to $0.61.

Got one fold, so didn't see cards for BigFish, could well be right with a missed draw like JT JDean.

The 2nd opponent called, with the flush (but nowhere near the nut flush), which immediately made me think they may well have actually folded to a shove, so maybe the bet was about right as BigFish could presumably not call a thing and the 2nd opp might have been scared of bigger flushes and full houses.

Heres the outcome.




Seat 5: Bosss de bos (small blind) mucked [8c 9c]



Only played a short session but made $1.75 profit over 167 hands and am enjoying the 6Max now that I have started to adjust to the lower number of opponents. Training videos and this sort of analysis is proving very helpful.

Cheers & gl all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 05:11 PM..
 
Old
Default
Wed Nov 16, 2011, 05:31 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post

Only played a short session but made $1.75 profit over 167 hands and am enjoying the 6Max now that I have started to adjust to the lower number of opponents. Training videos and this sort of analysis is proving very helpful.
+ROI s the bottom line. Congrats and keep it up Ed
 
Old
Default
Thu Nov 17, 2011, 07:26 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
61c seems good, especially if you were more confident of a flush than I am based on seeing this 1 hand, and the info you provide.

It is almost impossible for you to really reveal all the stuff you are probably processing at the table, as doing so would likely take a book length post.

So going with 61c, because you are more confident of him holding a strong hand, is better than my suggested amount. It is eke'ing out those few extra BB's on a hand when you have a value bet/raise decision that can sometimes spell the difference between being a long term winner, and being just a break even player.

Nice hand.

Last edited by JDean; Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:28 AM..
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com