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Bet Sizing

 
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Bet Sizing - Wed Nov 16, 2011, 07:33 PM
(#1)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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JDean mentioned on a previous hand that I may have been betting too big to get value from a lot of worse hands. Now I am questioning my bet sizing quite often. After reviewing this hand I am confused. I think I would prefer to raise 3x at this level now because I'm usually only playing premium hands. On the flop I continue for 60% pot with the nuts... I don't hate this bet, I think I'll get value from a queen, two pair or a flush draw. It is my turn bet that I don't really like, I bet 60% pot which is more than half of my remaining stack. Even if I bet half pot I can get it in on the river. I would be interested to know how some of you would play this street by street. What do you think of my bet sizing? Is the eight just an action killer?
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 07:40 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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actually with 2 flush draws out there, I'd make a bet to make it an action killer. Better to pick up the pot then, than to let someone draw out on you.

If it were me, I'd have raised to 3BB preflop (my std raise until I get to 100/200, then I drop to 2.5BB). Don't mind either the flop nor the turn. I'd have made similar bets.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 08:09 PM
(#3)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
On the turn, this is a bit of a spot. You have an excellent opportunity to check/raise, in hopes that one of them has a 9. With that, you have the flush draw still (I wouldn't sweat the back door flush draw that got there on the turn) and could possibly have someone sitting on 2 pair looking to boat.

So do you do like you did and take it down on the turn, or risk a player getting there on the river? If you're content to take it down, then shove on the turn as your bet is over 1/2 your stack...I mean, if the board pairs or the flush gets there on the river, are you really folding the rest of your stack on the river? Of course not. I would be content taking it down on the turn as this is just so early.

I think I would be checking the turn since I'm in EP, and just hope that one has a 9, or thinks they can represent having a 9, and I can check/raise them all in. Then if they just check, and the river flush or board pairing happens, you still have plenty of chips to work with should you feel the need to fold. I still might call down a smallish bet if the flush comes, just because it's an excellent bluff opportunity. If they call the check/raise, I'm happy with it.

I also agree, raise 3X this early. You get so many loose calls early in these, you need to try and push them out a bit stronger. Then get down to 2.5.
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 03:49 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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"Small Ball" play, the 2.25x and 2.5x type raises, tends to work well when you are looking to play post flop poker, including 3 and 4bets pre flop that you can flat, Pre Raises and C-Bets that are not committing, etc. This can happen EARLY in an event when you are playing a wide range on deep money, or LATE in an event when stack average is shorter, better players who will tend to "respect" raises are in, and when some re-steal stacks may be around (12 to 20BB stacks).

The larger 3x sizing is especially good for hands that you are "playing for pairs" with, hands that will tend to be top pair/good kicker hands, and/or board over pairs quite often. Early in events a lot of people will be reluctant to keep going after the flop versus a tight range is they miss, so you can often build a slightly BIGGER pre flop pot with a 3x raise, and a half to 2/3rds pot C Bet and take it down without going past the flop. The drawback of 3x bet sizing is tha the larger amount, when made n the presence of re steal stack sizes, tends to be more attractive to those steals. But if you show a willingness to 4bet at least some of the time, early on it can work to pick up BIGGER pots when you get called pre and take it down on continuation.

Which you choose in this spot is a matter of your preference really, as a 34BB stack leaves you a bit of "wiggle room" to either go small ball or to play for pairs.

As for your flop bet, it is a standard C Bet sizing, made for value in hopes it gets called. You already know the in;s and out's of why your sizing was good.

The turn tho...

This is the point where MOST STACKS start to move past the usefulness of a "standard" sizing. C Bets and pre raises can often be standard because that amount doesnt start to hit a committment point for a med or deep stack. You need to be flexible enough to manage your stack to a level appropriate to your hand strength or ability to bluff (put out what you can afford to lose if the villain does not fold, without being too small). sometimes that means half pot again, sometimes 30 or 40%, sometimes 60%, sometimes all in.

The thing about your 60% bet is it looks VERY committing for you, and that dries up bluff shots; any "aware" opponent should know you really cannot fold that deep. Since the 8 tosses up the chance of a 1 card straight, a committing 60% pot turn bet on a lead by you, your "2nd barrel", is definately going to make that 8 an 'action killer". BUT...

The GREAT thing aobut your 2nd barrel at the same proportion as the flop bet is...

IF SOMEONE HAS THE 9, THEY JAM YOU!



Sure, you aren't getting action from Qs or flush draws anymore if you bet 60%, but with a board this coordinated you probably aren't getting action on ANY bet by those hands any more. You still do not want to give a free card to a potential flush draw, so you gotta bet SOMETHING in most cases, (though vs very bluff-y villain's you could risk a check). Why not size your turn bet so that the only option for a naked 9 that jsut made a straight is to put you all in?

So I think your bets were jsut fin, and you had little hope of getting any more action unless an opponent had a 9.
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#5)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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The turn and river bets are the ones that I'm always questioning after, in this case it appears that I made a decent play, but sometimes when I get two streets of value I bomb the river thinking that my opponent will call when I might get more value with a smaller bet. One problem that I notice when I review my sessions is that I'm always trying to get a double up with my big hands and I force my opponent out. Where do I find the balance between getting something and trying to get the maximum?
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 04:18 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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When you're in that situation, bet the most that you think the opp will call. The amounts will vary with the various opponents, but make a value bet that you think they will call.
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 09:34 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
When you're in that situation, bet the most that you think the opp will call. The amounts will vary with the various opponents, but make a value bet that you think they will call.
+100000

V-Betting/Raising on the river is most certainly NOT something you can do with a set "standard". A bet one opponent might call is a bet another would fold the 2nd nuts to in a flash. That means there is no way around making sure you have solid table observations for your river value decisions.

A thought tho...

Look at the river just as you would pre flop, and use the info you have about the opponent to put him on a RANGE of hands that fit the earlier action.

(all these actions assume you have a hand you are pretty sure is the best)

Your "baseline" value bet on the river is going to be the same baseline as your flop and turn bets: half pot.

You "baseline" value RAISE over a lead bet should be to raise 2 times the lead bet on this street (making it 3 times the bet to go).

ADJUSTMENTS for your V-Bets/Raises should be as follows...

- Bet MORE versus players who have shown a willingness to call.

- Bet LESS versus players who have shown a willingness to fold tightly, chase draws too far, or will be willing to bluff.

- The TIGHTER your image (assuming opponents are looking at your play), the smaller your river V-Bets/Raises should be usually.

- The LOOSER your image, the larger they should tend to be.

(note: if your opponents are not likely to be looking at your image, substitute "the more often you have won lately" for TIGHT, and "the more often you have lost lately" for LOOSE)

- The more draws there were early that did not fill, the more chance an opponent will be on a draw and will not likely pay off ANY V-Bet (but he may bluff over some bets).

Bet less in hopes of inducing a bluff, because you probably aren't getting paid anyway.

- The LESS coordinated a board is, the greater the chance a top pair or 2nd pair might call your V-Bet.

Bet slightly more (if you hold better than top/top) because you may get paid off by lesser hands.

- The less coordinated a board is, the greater the chance is that an opponent is on BETTER than a 1 pair hand too; without likely draws to "help" 1 pair hands, sets and wierd 2 pairs become more likely.

Again, bet slightly MORE if you can beat a 2 pair hand (such as top set/middle set); the opponent stayed for SOME reason, and if draws are un-likely reasons, he probably has a made hand he is ready to pay off with.

Obviously, this does not cover ALL the permutations possible, but it should give you a baseline to start re-forming your V-Bet/Raise sizes on the river to work more often for you. spend some time thinking about different spots during your study time, and prepare yourself for those situations BEFORE you come upon them.

For example, your base line bet amounts should CHANGE in multi-way pots, from those I've put out here. Why don;t you put on a Hand analyst's "hat", and try to tell ME how the multi-way pot might CHANGE V-Betting decisions...


Last edited by JDean; Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:37 PM..
 

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