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60% equity with 55.

 
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60% equity with 55. - Fri Nov 18, 2011, 04:13 PM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
So here's the situation:
I'm playing the sunday storm and it's been a while since the bubble has burst and we're in the money. I have about 23bb the blinds are 5000/10k with antes. So I raise 3bb in late position with 55, the BB, who is a huge stack, calls. Now he's been playing pretty loose, calling shoves with a wide range of hands on the flop. The flop comes T8T rainbow and he bets half the pot. I figure that he's just cont. betting and decide to reraise and take it there. He 4bets and I'm left with a decision of shoving or folding- I have about 18BB left. SoI figured that if he's got overcards like AJ+, KJ+, QJ+. But also he could have a hand like Axs but i didn't think he would do that with Axo. I figured if he flopped a set he would slow play it and shove it on the river. Either way I had a feeling he had overcards, so if he calls that gives me 60% equity. So I decided to shove he calls, he has KQo. The turn comes a King and it's over.

Question: Should I have folded and waited for a better opportunity? Or is shoving with 18BB with 60% equity alright. I understand that a flop texture like T8T doesn't favor 55 most of the time but I had a really good read on my opponent thus having 60% equity.
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 04:21 PM
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If I am holding a small PP with 2 overs on the board facing a reraise, I am most likely folding
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 04:29 PM
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If it's me, when the opp 4-bets me, I'm folding and trying to find a better spot. 10 8 10 flop won't hit much, but if they have an 8 or 10 or overpair, you're crushed. I like your 3-bet to see where you're at, but when the opp pushes back, I'd fold.

Good job on cashing in it though
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 04:40 PM
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First off, congrats on cashing.

Your terminology is a little off (he bets, you raise [2-bet], he reraises [3-bet]), but this is an annoying spot. Then he leads, you're probably ahead, really you are. But should you raise, call or fold? In this spot, although you're not often getting called by worse or folding better, I think a raise is good. The reason is that almost every turn card is bad for you. If you had Ace high I'd like calling better, but with 55, every turn card is bad (except 5 obv.) and if you are behind you have very little chance of improving (only a 5 really). The best thing would be to take it down now. He's generally got some decent equity against you and you'd like him to fold that (or call getting a bad price). If he jams he usually has a ton of equity, either overs+straight draw, open ender, over pair, or trips or better. The problem is of course that you're kind of turning your 55 into a bluff, but I don't think it's bad here--not as bad as with like 99. Probably folding to his 3-bet on 18 BBs, which is a beautiful resteal stack. Just try to find some wide openers to target for resteals.

Last edited by oriholic; Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 04:52 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 06:04 PM
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Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
So you're saying that when he 3bets I could 4bet bluff him out of the hand? and if he shoves I should fold? Generally if I was in a different situation and I had 20bb, is it okay to be stack committed with 60% equity, or you would really need to assess the situation to answer this question?
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 06:11 PM
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I think your chances of bluffing them off the hand are probably zero. I'd be folding to their re-raise and looking for a better situation. Also, I'm trying to wait to I'm down to 10BB or less, not 20, to be in a race.
 
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Fri Nov 18, 2011, 06:25 PM
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yeah with 20+ BB you have a lot of equity still to look for a better spot to reshove. With that tourney if you waited till down to 10BB you would have moved up 50 spots at least, maybe more. The way he played, donking into you tells me he probably sucks lol and your read was right, but a board full of overs still makes it an easy fold for me
 
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Sat Nov 19, 2011, 03:46 AM
(#8)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
What if you were to look at it this way? Don't think of the flop texture: T8T rainbow, but think percentage wise.

Even though the flop seems horrible I still have 60% equity. Considering his range: KJ+, AJ+ and indeed he does have a hand in that range: KQo.
Isn't shoving 20bb with 60% equity better than shoving 10bb with 50% equity? In the former, I double up to 40bb and have more time to wait for a better hand, where It MIGHT come to a coinflip situation.
While in the latter, not only do I risk losing the tournament on a coinflip but I also only double up to 20bb, where pretty soon, most likely after one round of blinds, I will have to be looking for a spot to shove and try to win ANOTHER coinflip. What r the odds of winning two coinflips in a row? possible, but less likely.

Last edited by andrei17731; Sat Nov 19, 2011 at 06:32 AM..
 
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Sat Nov 19, 2011, 03:49 AM
(#9)
andrei17731's Avatar
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Thanks for your posts. Really appreciate it.
 
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Sat Nov 19, 2011, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
What if you were to look at it this way? Don't think of the flop texture: T8T rainbow, but think percentage wise.

Even though the flop seems horrible I still have 60% equity. Considering his range: KJ+, AJ+ and indeed he does have a hand in that range: KQo.
Isn't shoving 20bb with 60% equity better than shoving 10bb with 50% equity? In the former, I double up to 40bb and have more time to wait for a better hand, where It MIGHT come to a coinflip situation.
While in the latter, not only do I risk losing the tournament on a coinflip but I also only double up to 20bb, where pretty soon, most likely after one round of blinds, I will have to be looking for a spot to shove and try to win ANOTHER coinflip. What r the odds of winning two coinflips in a row? possible, but less likely.
Most opponents that would re-raise the flop there will have a 10 or overpair to you (I'd guess probably 95+% of your opponents will have this and not 2 overs). A normal opp with 2 overcards would just call to peel a card to try and get a pair or fold to your raise. A 3-bet without a made hand is only going to happen from a maniac player.
 
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Sat Nov 19, 2011, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
What if you were to look at it this way? Don't think of the flop texture: T8T rainbow, but think percentage wise.

Even though the flop seems horrible I still have 60% equity. Considering his range: KJ+, AJ+ and indeed he does have a hand in that range: KQo.
Isn't shoving 20bb with 60% equity better than shoving 10bb with 50% equity?
Whaaa? What makes you think that's his range? Not to mention there's a difference between his bluffing range and his calling range. How do you leave QJ out? J9? 97? Q9? If he has a hand like KQ in his range then he most definitely has those as well. While Tx is unlikely it's still in his range. Pairs like 66, 77, 99 as well, and even the very unlikely 88. He could also have JJ+, but he probably would have 3-bet those preflop. When I plug it in against my expected range I get HIM having 60% equity. Even if I pull out every Tx or 88 hand, he's still ahead with 50% equity.
 

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