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call on the turn

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call on the turn - Sat Nov 26, 2011, 07:25 AM
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with picking up aditional outs on the turn and was getting almost 3-1 for a call was this a good or bad call?

 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 12:05 PM
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well, you need to put 750 chips into a pot of 1980 or 35%. You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 A's or three 9's to the straight, 2 J's, 3 10's.... 20 outs x 2% is 40%.

You know you're probably behind at that point, but the equity in the outs is higher than the percentage you need to put in the pot, so I'm calling.
 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 01:01 PM
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Thanks JWK
 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 01:18 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
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Preflop is a shove or fold. Flop is an auto check/shove, with a pair, flush draw, and backdoor straight. Especially on that depth of money, check/calling is pretty pointless. Open-jam the turn. Check/calling is pretty bad. A couple reasons why: you make yourself card-dependent. Yeah, you have a lot of outs, but there are still more ways for you to miss, by jamming yourself you may have fold-equity (his bets look pretty weak) plus your outs make this a very +EV shove; While you only need about 25% equity to make a call here, it is for a very large percentage of your stack, and a lot of your outs may be dead--for example if you're against AK, or Q8 how many outs do you really have? You need to be able to put your opponent on some sort of a range and then at least partially discount some of your outs.

Short answer: You need to be more aggressive.

Last edited by oriholic; Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 01:43 PM..
 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
well, you need to put 750 chips into a pot of 1980 or 35%. You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 A's or three 9's to the straight, 2 J's, 3 10's.... 20 outs x 2% is 40%.

You know you're probably behind at that point, but the equity in the outs is higher than the percentage you need to put in the pot, so I'm calling.

You're putting 750 chips into a pot that will be 2685, so you actually need about 25% equity. (You're getting about 3 to 1)

What if you're against ...whatcha got, 6 outs? Yeah, that's about the worst case, but unless he's got specifically top pair bad kicker you're not gonna have 20 outs. He often has an ace or two pair, just because most of the time if someone is playing a hand, they usually have two cards of similar rank.
 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 03:14 PM
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TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
well, you need to put 750 chips into a pot of 1980 or 35%. You have 9 outs to the flush and 3 A's or three 9's to the straight, 2 J's, 3 10's.... 20 outs x 2% is 40%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
You're putting 750 chips into a pot that will be 2685, so you actually need about 25% equity. (You're getting about 3 to 1)
Ori you are double counting the 750. When evaluating a call for immediate pot odds you count what you will win at that point in the betting. Adding in your call overestimates the equity.
 
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Sat Nov 26, 2011, 03:30 PM
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You need to double count the 750. Your odds are about 3 to 1. But your contribution to the pot is about 1/4 of the final pot. With 1 to 1 odds you need to win 50%. With 2 to 1 you need to win 33%, with 3 to 1 you need 25%. ~75% you'll lose 750, ~25% you'll win 1980. It's the same thing.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 03:56 AM
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ori i dont think my flop call was wrong i was still left with 10 or so bb if the turn had come a blank say a 2 for instants i still had enough to fold in my opinion, the chioce for me was that turn card it just made it so tempting, and my read was he had exactly what i thought he had, i cant do all the fancy maths yet but my reads are pretty good, i dont think i need more agression i,m in the money 39% of the time so i must be doing somethings right.(39% since ive had a hud) I seem to cause an arguement between members everytime i post a hand for replay, this i not my intention.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 01:11 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
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You don't want enough chips to fold. You want enough chips to win.
 

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