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how come?

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how come? - Sun Nov 27, 2011, 02:28 AM
(#1)
marty102's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 2
how come when playing on pokerstars ace`s appear on the river far more than they would if the deck was random
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 09:39 AM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
One of the things you learn as a poker player is that our memories are somewhat faulty. We remember the unusual and forget the mundane. To illustrate this concept better I urge you to keep a record of your allins for a month then using Pokerstove or another equity tool compare your win % to your true expectation.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 09:58 AM
(#3)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,034
(Community Coordinator)
Of all the leading online poker sites I have used in the past I have yet to come across one that takes the quality and security of it's Random Number Generator (RNG) more seriously.

Check out this link of an independent audit that was carried out.

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/

Raiser
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 10:33 AM
(#4)
dertymcgerty's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by marty102 View Post
how come when playing on pokerstars ace`s appear on the river far more than they would if the deck was random
They can only replicate the randomness of the deck so much. Nothing is perfect, and for them to admit that there is an issue or the possibility that there is with the randomness of cards being dealt would create a very negative feeling among players around the world, so they come up with words like "variance" and tell you "studies" have been done on this subject till the cows came home or until they were in blue in the face and are completely and 100% sure their software is in no way shape or form anything but random and glitch free to create such occurrences from ever happening, I am most certain this post will be looked at and hopefully responded to with great denial that anything could be wrong with their precious site's software and most likely with the usual comebacks when someone goes against the grain "don't like it here, don't play here",or some form of witty sarcasm to silence the ones that speak up about this subject...you will see exactly what I mean by the negative responses this post will most likely get, silence speaks volumes also ..so the best thing to do is to bend over and take it like 99% of the newer players that they figure are to stupid to be questioning the integrity and honesty of this sites software.

To think that there might be even the slightest possibility of this being true and not believing it to be so in my mind is an admission of complete denial.

Just keep playing and try not to let it get to you
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 01:05 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Derty,

You are entitled to your opinion as is everyone else. However it is only an opinion. You have not provided any supporting evidence on your behalf. Had there been a flaw in the RNG don't you think it would have been exposed after 70 billion hands? Plenty of people have tried to do such and came up short. Even our very own hedgehog began to keep records of his group I and II hands to prove a bias existed and wound up proving that the results matched expectations.

While you are entitled to your opinion you will not find many takers without proof to accompany your statements.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 02:37 PM
(#6)
dertymcgerty's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Derty,

You are entitled to your opinion as is everyone else. However it is only an opinion. You have not provided any supporting evidence on your behalf. Had there been a flaw in the RNG don't you think it would have been exposed after 70 billion hands? Plenty of people have tried to do such and came up short. Even our very own hedgehog began to keep records of his group I and II hands to prove a bias existed and wound up proving that the results matched expectations.

While you are entitled to your opinion you will not find many takers without proof to accompany your statements.
I am going to quote, JDean from the other day, and respond to your typical and what I believe to be a very well rehearsed answer with a BLAH BLAH BLAH.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 03:14 PM
(#7)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
why do people who think it is rigged, fixed etc still keep playing here then?
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 05:33 PM
(#8)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hi Marty,

Welcome to the forum! First of all I think a lot of your experience is coming from the Open League and God knows I have been there or on earlier leagues on PSO that were played in a similar way.

I have to thank Darkman (you will see him pop up here from time to time if you want to learn the game and stay on the forum) for the advice that trying to play proper poker in an Any Two Card freeroll was a complete waste of time and off course I was under the illusion that I could play poker

I whinged and I cried about suckouts, Aces, Kings, twos, fives, nines, any card that beat me on the river. I came to believe that the site, God, luck, and anything else that would take the blame away from myself, was the reason I was losing.

The fact is that when I was shown how I should play in this freeroll environment, I began to prosper, I began to win and run deep.

Off course I thought I could take this new found knowledge and enter any MTT/SNG and run deep or win it. Sorry to say that life just does not work like that. Poker is a game of learning; first you learn and beat the first level and then you move onto the next and do the same.

There is no doubt that you will come across every type of situation and suckout that you believe to beyond reasonable probability, but unless you accept these, you will never develop as a poker player.

The fact is that at any given time there are over a quarter of a million players playing on over 50,000 tables at Pokerstars so whether it is a freeroll, low limit cash, high limit cash, SNGs small or huge buy ins, or MTTs with 10,000 players plus for a 1.10$ buyin or a 215$ buyin, there a humungous amount of players who get pooped upon from a great height by the run of the cards. Winning, even average players, accept it and move onto the next hand because they understand you can always be beaten unless you have the absolute nuts; players who expect that the best hand should hold from pre, the flop or the turn, every single time for them cry out in disgust that it is rigged against them.

I am by no means a winning player; I lose patience and self control and play really silly when I know I should fold; it is not the cards that beat me nor the other players, it is myself!!!! I think i can deny the odds or probabilities, I think I can slow play my set on the turn with three clubs on the board and it should not hit, I give people the odds to call, I bet size incorrectly, I make all manner of mistakes, and sometimes a little voice says "rigged" but if i am honest i know it is just my bad poker, and if I refuse to see that then it will continue to be bad and I should give up.

Pokerstars spent a huge amount of effort and money showing that it is all above board, they are professionally and impartially audited, numerous players show stats on their hands all over the internet showing that everything runs to normal probability and mathematics.

Now you can choose to believe that, or you can can choose to believe those that say it is rigged. Type it into google and some guy will ask you to give him 200$ to beat the system cos he knows the secret of the logarithms, type the same site into google and you will see 100,000's complaints on people being scammed by those that know it is rigged.

No one and I mean no one has been able to present any data that says anything other than that the Pokerstars RNG is straight down the line. Now if anyone can provide anything more than pure supposition, "I know this or I know that", provide proof, because proof is a logical and provable concept, then really they are only wasting not just my time, your time, the site's time, but everybody elses time that is coming here to learn to play and enjoy poker.

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 06:00 PM..
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 06:33 PM
(#9)
dertymcgerty's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Hi Marty,

Welcome to the forum! First of all I think a lot of your experience is coming from the Open League and God knows I have been there or on earlier leagues on PSO that were played in a similar way.

I have to thank Darkman (you will see him pop up here from time to time if you want to learn the game and stay on the forum) for the advice that trying to play proper poker in an Any Two Card freeroll was a complete waste of time and off course I was under the illusion that I could play poker

I whinged and I cried about suckouts, Aces, Kings, twos, fives, nines, any card that beat me on the river. I came to believe that the site, God, luck, and anything else that would take the blame away from myself, was the reason I was losing.

The fact is that when I was shown how I should play in this freeroll environment, I began to prosper, I began to win and run deep.

Off course I thought I could take this new found knowledge and enter any MTT/SNG and run deep or win it. Sorry to say that life just does not work like that. Poker is a game of learning; first you learn and beat the first level and then you move onto the next and do the same.

There is no doubt that you will come across every type of situation and suckout that you believe to beyond reasonable probability, but unless you accept these, you will never develop as a poker player.

The fact is that at any given time there are over a quarter of a million players playing on over 50,000 tables at Pokerstars so whether it is a freeroll, low limit cash, high limit cash, SNGs small or huge buy ins, or MTTs with 10,000 players plus for a 1.10$ buyin or a 215$ buyin, there a humungous amount of players who get pooped upon from a great height by the run of the cards. Winning, even average players, accept it and move onto the next hand because they understand you can always be beaten unless you have the absolute nuts; players who expect that the best hand should hold from pre, the flop or the turn, every single time for them cry out in disgust that it is rigged against them.

I am by no means a winning player; I lose patience and self control and play really silly when I know I should fold; it is not the cards that beat me nor the other players, it is myself!!!! I think i can deny the odds or probabilities, I think I can slow play my set on the turn with three clubs on the board and it should not hit, I give people the odds to call, I bet size incorrectly, I make all manner of mistakes, and sometimes a little voice says "rigged" but if i am honest i know it is just my bad poker, and if I refuse to see that then it will continue to be bad and I should give up.

Pokerstars spent a huge amount of effort and money showing that it is all above board, they are professionally and impartially audited, numerous players show stats on their hands all over the internet showing that everything runs to normal probability and mathematics.

Now you can choose to believe that, or you can can choose to believe those that say it is rigged. Type it into google and some guy will ask you to give him 200$ to beat the system cos he knows the secret of the logarithms, type the same site into google and you will see 100,000's complaints on people being scammed by those that know it is rigged.

No one and I mean no one has been able to present any data that says anything other than that the Pokerstars RNG is straight down the line. Now if anyone can provide anything more than pure supposition, "I know this or I know that", provide proof, because proof is a logical and provable concept, then really they are only wasting not just my time, your time, the site's time, but everybody elses time that is coming here to learn to play and enjoy poker.

Cheers,

TC
same typical answer full of denial that Trumpinjoe had but with a lot more fluff added to keep yourself convinced and to also convince the masses that there can never be anything ever wrong with anything pokerstars does or has done or will ever do...so i will check your typical answer with a LOL and raise your denial with a big fat whatever
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 07:02 PM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Well Derty, if you knew me, or were actually party to any of my previous postings, you would know that I am one of the biggest critics of both PSO and Pokerstars, and I have never been backward in expressing that opinion. Therefore, your assertion that I am protecting PSO or Pokerstars, is not only an invalid argument but also a fallacy; but we will not get into an argument about philosophy or logic. We will keep it simple

I go all in against your big fat whatever and ask you to prove it If you are unable to even attempt to do so then I believe I have won the argument and take all your chips

QED

TC
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 07:25 PM
(#11)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Sigh... here we go again..

Quote:
Originally Posted by dertymcgerty View Post
so they come up with words like "variance" and tell you "studies" have been done on this subject
Have you ever studied statistics at all? Do you have ANY understanding of statistics? "Variance" was not invented to explain away poker results that some people find surprising, the concept has been around for a very long time.

What about computer science and pseudo random number generation? Thought not..

If you are so convinced do some research and write a paper on what you find. See if you can get a peer reviewed journal to publish it. If you are correct you will probably find a lot of lucrative and interesting job offers coming your way. Good luck.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 07:37 PM
(#12)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Also while I accept that bugs in software are of course possible. I do not accept that there is a bug in the RNG that causes Aces on the river or any other anomaly.

The statistical (there's that word again) significance of analysis done on hands produced by it is too high.

trumpinjoe is correct. Our brains are wired to remember times when we feel that we were hard done by more than others. Try to understand that.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 08:53 PM
(#13)
dertymcgerty's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Well Derty, if you knew me, or were actually party to any of my previous postings, you would know that I am one of the biggest critics of both PSO and Pokerstars, and I have never been backward in expressing that opinion. Therefore, your assertion that I am protecting PSO or Pokerstars, is not only an invalid argument but also a fallacy; but we will not get into an argument about philosophy or logic. We will keep it simple

I go all in against your big fat whatever and ask you to prove it If you are unable to even attempt to do so then I believe I have won the argument and take all your chips

QED

TC
You can try insulting me with your wit all you want, I wont be losing any sleep over it .Not going to bother with this site anymore, complete waste of time and energy at this point, and I am sure a great deal of regular members including yourself will be glad I have chosen to finally do this.

Best of luck and Goodbye.

Derty
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 09:40 PM
(#14)
brkn80's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 440
Don't let the door hit ya where the good LORD split ya.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 10:13 PM
(#15)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Darn you guys, you just keep scaring away the fishies!!

 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 10:46 PM
(#16)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by marty102 View Post
how come when playing on pokerstars ace`s appear on the river far more than they would if the deck was random
I think they have programmed the tables to reconise when you are at the table.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 11:03 PM
(#17)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by dertymcgerty View Post
... I am sure a great deal of regular members including yourself will be glad I have chosen to finally do this...
I would actually prefer you stay a member of this community and grow your game as others are doing. On some level you must have wanted to or why would you drop in to check out a school.

As to other members wanting you to leave, that also is not the best explanation. To maintain the viability of both Pokerstars and PSO, new members are needed. Retaining a current member means one less that has to be attracted anew. This community welcomes new members for what they can add. Pokerstars members wants new members for the dollars, pounds, euros, yen, etc, they donate while learning the game.

The way PSO retains members is usually by improving their profitability at the tables. I ask, or even challenge you, to stay and make a concerted effort to take your game up a notch or two.

Since I an US based and locked out of the card room I stay to give back as the community has helped my game to grow and adapt.
 
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Mon Nov 28, 2011, 12:29 AM
(#18)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Nice post , Joe. You're 100% right, we should be doing all we can to help retain new members. I sometimes get a little impatient with the "rigged" posts, and I shouldn't, I've seen several peeps that started on that track become valuable contributors.

We should all try to be a little less condescending, it sends the wrong message.

 
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Mon Nov 28, 2011, 04:10 AM
(#19)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
Been there, done that. At least I got the balls to stay, not register just to post a topic how bad you think it is.

Ive been an active part of the community for 2 months now, closing in on 300 posts.

Alot of them are me whining about losing but the other people here kept me up. It will take alot of effort to really learn this game, and I can say that after 3 years of being a fish and 2 months of training, its looking up for me at the moment

 
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Mon Nov 28, 2011, 05:41 AM
(#20)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by marty102 View Post
how come when playing on pokerstars ace`s appear on the river far more than they would if the deck was random
A question for you Marty...

How often SHOULD an Ace show on the river?

I am not prone to accepting an argument unless I am pretty sure the person can show reason for their argument.

Please illustrate how often you think an Ace should show on the river, including the rationale by which you arrive at your thinking, and then provide verifiable results (hand histories, with hand numbers) so we can actually judge your thought that an Ace shows more often on the river than is should in on line poker.

some links if you want to look deeper into the act of shuffling, or randomization of the cards prior to being dealt:

Definition of "Pseuo-randomness":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandomness
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_...tial_generator <- type of RNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_twister <- type of RNG

Bottom line:
derty is right, RNGs are not truly random, but he is wrong in thinking they are not sufficiently random to be indistinguishable from it.

Randomness is incredibly hard to achieve, as the tiniest factors may rob an act of true randomness (think on the scale of a butterfly moving its wings in the amazon effecting weather patterns in china); The best a human machine can do is approach true random-ness. The quality of technology is such that for all intents and purposes, an RNG generates a number indistinguishable from a true random number. Please note: modern RNGs are good enough that the are used in numerous NON POKER applications, such as complex computer modeling, statistical analysis, experimental design, etc. Many of these things have far wider reaching impact on our lives than does on line poker.

LIVE SHUFFLE LINKS:
http://www.shuffletech.com/randomization.aspx <- article by a top shuffle machine manufacturer.
http://www.bridgehands.com/C/Computer_Deals.htm <- focuses on shuffling in bridge, but the ideas are applicable to poker.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuffle <- description of types of hand shuffles
http://www.davidson.edu/math/chartie...fle/index.html <- math behind riffle shuffles
http://www.jstor.org/pss/2665604 <- more math of riffle shuffles.
http://www.math.hmc.edu/funfacts/ffiles/20002.4-6.shtml
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/tracking.htm

Bottom line of that, if there is no attempt at "fixing" a live shuffle, it takes a minimum of 7 riffle shuffles to approach significant randomness in a hand dealt game.

Hand shuffling, especially when done lackadaisically, does not come close to the randomization possible with modern RNGs.

Poor hand shuffling technique will tend to result in LESS randomization of the deck, and a greater frequency of "card clumping", or groups of cards in the deck which never have a chance of being re-distributed.

The lessening of randomization instills a false perception in some people which leads them to believe that what they are seeing in a hand dealt game is "random", and what happens in an RNG derived game is not random, when in fact the reality is exactly the opposite.

This can be especially true when you are BENEFITTING from bad shuffle technique thru a lessening of the chance that negative things will happen. If you view it properly though, at times you will be on the "wrong end" of a bad hand shuffle, and a change in your luck to see good things happen will be LESS LIKELY due to the minimal randomization used in poor hand shuffles.

On line, these things do not happen.

You live and die on the results of a method of creating psuedo randomness which is incredibly rigourous, far moreso than any hand shuffle.

Last edited by JDean; Mon Nov 28, 2011 at 05:49 AM..
 

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