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Correct steal shove with Q9?

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Correct steal shove with Q9? - Sun Nov 27, 2011, 07:39 AM
(#1)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Hi there,

just busted out of a tournament and wondering if this shove is correct anyhow.



Though process behind: The guy limping in was actually pretty tight, but I thought I had a very good stack against his to shove over him. The guy in the SB just doubled up the hand before this one and I thought he wouldn't risk it again with any marginal hand. Additionally: The blinds would have gone up after this hand and the tournament average was double my stack already.

Suggestions?
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 07:40 AM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
I don't like it one bit, we got position and stack to just R/F pref and if they just call, we got position to play post-flop. Also these 2 stacks behind us are huge, don't need to mingle there

Overall i just fold it here, but if you want to play - R/F

Last edited by Puciek; Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 07:43 AM..
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 08:03 AM
(#3)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
R/F? I thought this would be the worst of all options.

I think I have to raise it up to at least 1.5k in this spot to get anyone to fold (that's 25% of my stack). I have position if I get called, but do I want to get called? I don't think so and if I get a shove behind I clearly have to fold and will have below 5k to play with, that would have been 5BB after the blind raise in the next hand.

Don't get me wrong: I don't say it is a dump idea, but for me it is the worst idea to R/F in this spot.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 08:10 AM
(#4)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schnech View Post
R/F? I thought this would be the worst of all options.

I think I have to raise it up to at least 1.5k in this spot to get anyone to fold (that's 25% of my stack). I have position if I get called, but do I want to get called? I don't think so and if I get a shove behind I clearly have to fold and will have below 5k to play with, that would have been 5BB after the blind raise in the next hand.

Don't get me wrong: I don't say it is a dump idea, but for me it is the worst idea to R/F in this spot.
Much better than shoving, worse than folding.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 08:36 AM
(#5)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
your risking a big ammount of your stack on Q9o? you should at least have Axs A2o - A5o ATo - AKo pocket pairs or suited connectors, would cover most of the range to steal or play in late position
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 10:05 AM
(#6)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
SilverStar
Raise/folding on a ten big blind stack would be awful. You have to shove or fold.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 10:06 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schnech View Post
Hi there,

just busted out of a tournament and wondering if this shove is correct anyhow.



Though process behind: The guy limping in was actually pretty tight, but I thought I had a very good stack against his to shove over him. The guy in the SB just doubled up the hand before this one and I thought he wouldn't risk it again with any marginal hand. Additionally: The blinds would have gone up after this hand and the tournament average was double my stack already.

Suggestions?
Somethings to consider:

Q9 is a good re-steal hand, but this guy is a bad target for it to be honest.

The ideal target for a re-steal shot is the guy who opens a bit WIDER, yet still has the ability to fold somewhat marginal hands. If the guy is wild enough to open limp EP with a hand like A4o, and even if he is wild enough to call and put 2/3rd his chips at risk versus you, Q9 will tend to have decent equity for your short stack in that spot, so he is your best sort of target. see?

Against a player who, as you state, "limps pretty tight", the chances are just too great that his EP limp is a hand which he will CALL your jam on, and versus the tight player a call is not going to see you in very good shape all that often. You gotta remember that on 15BB he too is short, so a LOT of hands he might fold to a big bet on a 30 or 40BB stack are now calling hands, and most of those are going to have you in somewhat bad shape.

Also...

Your stack size is a bit small to be a normal re-steal size (just over 10BB), but with the stack spread at the table, you still carry solid fold equity in that 10BB stack, so it is fine to look at as a re-steal size. The fact the blinds go up means that sometime in this orbit you probably need to be looking at picking up at least 1 set of stolen blinds or antes, or else after paying your next set of blinds you will probably have very little FE left versus the table.

Your head seems to have been in the right place for the most part on your decision here, but you just picked the wrong person to use this play against.

(Please note: I did not mention anything about the fact someone woke up in the blind with a big hand. Your position, and the players left to act behind you, is a consideration for you to have when trying a re-steal, but on the BTN you have the absolute minimum number to act behind you possible pre-flop; it don't get no better than that. If someone wakes up with a big hand then, oh well!)

Last edited by JDean; Sun Nov 27, 2011 at 10:08 AM..
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 11:14 AM
(#8)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Thank you very much for this JD. +

I get your point on the "tight limping" and I guess you are right with this. Are you also with me on the R/F part, that this would be the worst of all the options I have?

@hamburglarid: 100% signed. Don't think that R/F would be a consideration in this spot.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 12:08 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Raise/folding on a 10 bb stack is a pretty major spew, I think this is a shove or fold spot.

Tight guy has 16 bigs and limps in EP... it's interesting because I would say that the reason tight guys do this is often to allow themselves room to fold to a big raise and only cost 1 bb, which if true in this case would make him a good steal target. Clearly that is not a good read in this particular case though since the guy called off his stack (overcalled even) with AJo which is actually pretty bad once the SB shoves.

Bottom line is I like the thought process behind the aggressive action, but maybe we have a problem with the read... we want to be targeting a limp-folder for this and the guy who limped in is either not a folder, or he just spazzed out this hand. As for the read on the SB it may be spot on and in fact people who just double up don't like to lose a chunk back on the next hand, but it doesn't matter here because no one is folding QQ in this spot, nothing you can do about that.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 12:12 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Your stack size is a bit small to be a normal re-steal size (just over 10BB)
Had to go back and re-check the hand... this statement is true but we're not re-stealing, the guy limped he didn't raise. We definitely have fold equity shoving 10bb over a limp. If they open for a raise then it's harder to get folds on a resteal with only 10bb's.
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 12:29 PM
(#11)
Schnech's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 104
Thanks Dave! Appreciate the analysis!
 
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Sun Nov 27, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
R/F is spew on your stack here.
 

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