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variance,,til,,downswings ?

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variance,,til,,downswings ? - Thu Dec 01, 2011, 07:37 PM
(#1)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
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Today i have had a really tough time on the tables. I feel like i have been playing the same i have been all week. Every good hands i was being dealt i just was not hitting on the flop, if i had AA KK hands and people would shove i would get smashed by trips straights and flush draws. I played 20 games and never seen a final table til the last 2 games. I managed to get near the bubble a few times as chip leader and everything would just fall apart for me.

So my question is how do u separate tilt and variance and also how can i identify which is going on at the time. Could i be slightly tilting due to the bad beats or could i be experiencing a down swing.

I have read a few posts about tilt that i should walk away. I asked my self when at the table am i on tilt and i said no, You always play like this its just the cards. This is why i could not get away from the tables cause i thought i was playing the way i normally do but just not hitting on the flop with my cards.

 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 07:45 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
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variance is when your AA gets beat by J10, tilt is when you jam 44 UTG with 100BB's
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 07:49 PM
(#3)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
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Cant be tilt then cause i would never jam 44 only 22.
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 07:57 PM
(#4)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Why is it only negative variance is ranted about?

I think I'm going to rant the next time I win 3 hands in a row and see what kind of response I get.
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:04 PM
(#5)
m.bisland's Avatar
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Posts: 1,260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Why is it only negative variance is ranted about?

I think I'm going to rant the next time I win 3 hands in a row and see what kind of response I get.
I am not having a rant about variance as i am not to sure what it is.
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:08 PM
(#6)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m.bisland View Post
Today i have had a really tough time on the tables. I feel like i have been playing the same i have been all week. Every good hands i was being dealt i just was not hitting on the flop, if i had AA KK hands and people would shove i would get smashed by trips straights and flush draws. I played 20 games and never seen a final table til the last 2 games. I managed to get near the bubble a few times as chip leader and everything would just fall apart for me.

So my question is how do u separate tilt and variance and also how can i identify which is going on at the time. Could i be slightly tilting due to the bad beats or could i be experiencing a down swing.

I have read a few posts about tilt that i should walk away. I asked my self when at the table am i on tilt and i said no, You always play like this its just the cards. This is why i could not get away from the tables cause i thought i was playing the way i normally do but just not hitting on the flop with my cards.

I would just like to say i am new to poker and i am only asking question, This is what pokerschool is all about right. ?
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:14 PM
(#7)
brkn80's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 440
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Why is it only negative variance is ranted about?

I think I'm going to rant the next time I win 3 hands in a row and see what kind of response I get.

I'd like to see you PLAY 3 hands in a ROW.
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:25 PM
(#8)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Tilt and variance are two distinct issues. One can affect the other however.

Someone at the tables says something you take offense to and your game deteriorates, you are on tilit and variance has nothing to do with it.

Your you get it all in on the flop with top set against the nut flush draw that gets there on the river. If this gets under your skin it's tilt, but a one off occurance is generally not called varaince.

The above happens to you 3 times in the next hour and you lose your cool. Now variance has tilted you.

You get dealt big pocket pairs three hands in a row and the hold up. Twice at shodown and once you fold everyone out. This is still variance but won't be tilting. It might even temper a mild tilt.

So tilt is when you are off your normal game due to emotional reasons.

Variance is when you hit an inevitable but statistically unusual streak. It can be favorable or unfavorable.

HTH
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:26 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Why is it only negative variance is ranted about?

I think I'm going to rant the next time I win 3 hands in a row and see what kind of response I get.


Hell Joe,I'll head that one off at the pass. You win three hands in a row it's rigged,obviously.
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 08:57 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by m.bisland View Post
Today i have had a really tough time on the tables. I feel like i have been playing the same i have been all week. Every good hands i was being dealt i just was not hitting on the flop, if i had AA KK hands and people would shove i would get smashed by trips straights and flush draws. I played 20 games and never seen a final table til the last 2 games. I managed to get near the bubble a few times as chip leader and everything would just fall apart for me.

So my question is how do u separate tilt and variance and also how can i identify which is going on at the time. Could i be slightly tilting due to the bad beats or could i be experiencing a down swing.

I have read a few posts about tilt that i should walk away. I asked my self when at the table am i on tilt and i said no, You always play like this its just the cards. This is why i could not get away from the tables cause i thought i was playing the way i normally do but just not hitting on the flop with my cards.


Bis variance is a pocket of unusual cards and results of a smallish window of time---the time being more related to hands and games played rather than actual time. Someone who plays 25,000 hands on ring tables in one day,or 100 45 man SNG's in one day could experience as many variance swings in one day as many would in a week,or even a month. Variance can be bad---which is,as Joe said,pretty much the ONLY variance we ever hear about here in the Forum. Or it can be good,which we almost never hear about.

Why? Because it's very rare to see a player brag about how much of a "lucky" streak they're on. When we win we like to stipulate that it's skill and when we lose the game is all about luck. Human nature.

Those .25 45 man's you like,I once was dealt AA 4 times in less than 25 hands (I think it was 23...). One was against JJ and AQ,one against QQ,one against KJo (small stack shove) and the last was a lowish pair,66 I think. Went from 8th in chips to chip leader in less than 3 orbits. LOL,then I got crippled HU when KK lost to 98s on a flopped straight. That's an example of good variance. As far as the AA's go. The KK? Meh.not so much.

Variance swings,good and bad,are just a reality of the game. If you let them affect your decision's that's an example of tilting. That's why you see Joe,Dave and many others emphasizing the need to learn how to not be results oriented. If you make the correct decisions more often than you don't the results will come.

A lot of this plays into why results in the short term become less and less important to you as you get more and more games and hands played. Get enough play in and the variance swings become just little hiccups and you learn to accept them as just another part of this great,crazy game.

Keep focusing on making the correct plays and you'll be fine.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Thu Dec 01, 2011 at 09:00 PM..
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 09:43 PM
(#11)
r0ck.carver's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 201
Awesome description moxie.... MB shrug it of m8 ..take a break and go back through those hands on the replayer and watch for different lines and signs you can use to your advantage....If you got your money in good as you've heard Lango and Honu say during the training well it will come around ...if you didn't then,, What can you do to plug the leaks???? Moxie hit the nail on the head there..... can't stress how much listening to Chris and Dave as well as my own work has firmed up my mental game .... it rarely bugs me now....bad beats happen both sides of the felt. Also positional play is important to avoid those oops
I will say this though the donk fish are out today and they are biting....played three games now lost with flopped top set to runner runner str8... flopped nut flush get 3 way action on a 10 x bet and 1 caller all in on the turn pairless board only to get *****d by the boat while holding 1 blocker.... it just happens and the more you play the more variance you will see. In both directions....so good luck m8 and I can't stress enough the hand revue ..... it is so important!!!!! r0ck
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 11:15 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m.bisland View Post
Today i have had a really tough time on the tables. I feel like i have been playing the same i have been all week. Every good hands i was being dealt i just was not hitting on the flop, if i had AA KK hands and people would shove i would get smashed by trips straights and flush draws. I played 20 games and never seen a final table til the last 2 games. I managed to get near the bubble a few times as chip leader and everything would just fall apart for me.

So my question is how do u separate tilt and variance and also how can i identify which is going on at the time. Could i be slightly tilting due to the bad beats or could i be experiencing a down swing.

I have read a few posts about tilt that i should walk away. I asked my self when at the table am i on tilt and i said no, You always play like this its just the cards. This is why i could not get away from the tables cause i thought i was playing the way i normally do but just not hitting on the flop with my cards.

I'm trying to sort it all out too ... I think I'm going through a period of great turbulence on the felt as well, but who knows for sure ... maybe it's just 'normal' variance. Maybe it's just congestion from my cold.

I'm hoping it becomes easier to tell what's what the more we've played
 
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Thu Dec 01, 2011, 11:53 PM
(#13)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
It will, as you play more and gain confidence, you'll know when you made a good decision. It's very difficult to ignore results, but that's what you have to learn to do. It takes time to have confidence that you made the correct play, even if you lost.

The hand analysis forum is invaluable for this, you can post your hands and other objective people evaluate your actions for free!! This is a great advantage to all the members of PSO, you can get quick feedback on your hands. If you're doing something wrong, you know right away, and if you played the hand right, you feel better about it when someone else says you did the right thing.

In time you'll even get used to those bad beats, and they won't bother you nearly as much.

 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 12:51 AM
(#14)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
in November it seemed you played worse during challenge and better when out of challenge.

So maybe (i've been known to be wrong) its the pressure of the competition, ie you are seeing "good" spots where there is none.

as you are a self confessed "beginner" 20 games of 45 man Sit and go seems very high to me.

(i played 6 today), had 2 open at once and nearly cryed when i shoved 15BB with KK to be showed AA!!

However unlike when i have 3 or 4 tables open i had better reads on the Villains and more times to stop and think before making plays.

M. I'm not saying this is Variance just that the same thing happened to you last month and its something to consider.

you only need to play 4 games a night 5 on a few and you can do the challenge.

on the other hand you last 2 were good!!!


Grade b
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 04:40 AM
(#15)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
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Thank you all this was great help. I am going to put this down to bad variance as I feel I played ok. I don't think it was tilt as I played same way all night then finished 1st and a 2nd in the last 2 games. Let's hope I can experience some good variance today.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:13 AM
(#16)
XxTiberxX's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 374
just a quick tip from me, if your chip leader close to the bubble, consider waiting untill it bursted only playing AA or KK, time out every turn, this way you will get your buy-in with a small profit back.

Many will disagree with this, but why risk it all if you can have money for sure.

I was 17 out of 25 today 18 get the money, I used the same tactic, I might of been SS after the bubble but I holded it all the way to 8th. But I got the insurance of making the money.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:10 AM
(#17)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
BronzeStar
This is how I play final tables I sit back and let everyone else knock each other out. I start making moves in last 4.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:40 AM
(#18)
nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
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You are on the right step of asking yourself whether you are on tilt or not. Something I did notice is that you mentioned final tables so I'm assuming you're playing tournaments. In my opinion, variance is a lot bigger in tournaments than in cash games. As you may know, you simply need to win a lot of all-ins in order to win some tournaments and statically speaking you are bound to run some big hands into other big hands are get in several coin flips in which it is very hard to win every single one. But often that is what it takes. What you do need to remember is that you are playing your A-Game as often as you can and that if you think about the long-run these things should 'tilt' you less. You know what lies ahead of you and that is that if you keep playing well, you will be rewarded in the long run. Keep a positive mindset and it'll help you a lot more.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 10:27 AM
(#19)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by nanonoko View Post
You are on the right step of asking yourself whether you are on tilt or not. Something I did notice is that you mentioned final tables so I'm assuming you're playing tournaments. In my opinion, variance is a lot bigger in tournaments than in cash games. As you may know, you simply need to win a lot of all-ins in order to win some tournaments and statically speaking you are bound to run some big hands into other big hands are get in several coin flips in which it is very hard to win every single one. But often that is what it takes. What you do need to remember is that you are playing your A-Game as often as you can and that if you think about the long-run these things should 'tilt' you less. You know what lies ahead of you and that is that if you keep playing well, you will be rewarded in the long run. Keep a positive mindset and it'll help you a lot more.
have to agree a 20 game downswing in MTT's and the 45 /90/180 man sit and go's is a common thing.

I think the reason for the post is a lot to do with the fact that in the last days of November you were doing so well.

So time for a little self analysis here,
Yesterday were you playing tired or stress (from Stuff going on at work (grinds teeth))

Did you play simular games with simular players?

did you play same number of tables.

Did you play tight becuase your still learning or did you (and i still fall for this one Damn you over conferdance) make a few "moves" against the "fish" that you normall wouldn't have done. ( i was doing this after trainings thinking i could "make some moves" guess what the ABC TAG style is still the best in the 45 /90 cent games i was trying the moves in.

Don't get me wrong M. I'm not saying this is the case, but it is worth looking at if only to eliminate it from mix.

We have seen that you play some great poker at this level, you need to remind your self that from time (we all do).

Grade b
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 02:22 PM
(#20)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by nanonoko View Post
You are on the right step of asking yourself whether you are on tilt or not. Something I did notice is that you mentioned final tables so I'm assuming you're playing tournaments. In my opinion, variance is a lot bigger in tournaments than in cash games. As you may know, you simply need to win a lot of all-ins in order to win some tournaments and statically speaking you are bound to run some big hands into other big hands are get in several coin flips in which it is very hard to win every single one. But often that is what it takes. What you do need to remember is that you are playing your A-Game as often as you can and that if you think about the long-run these things should 'tilt' you less. You know what lies ahead of you and that is that if you keep playing well, you will be rewarded in the long run. Keep a positive mindset and it'll help you a lot more.
Thanks for the reply randy i appreciate it. I shall carry on doing what i do best and keep a positive attitude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
have to agree a 20 game downswing in MTT's and the 45 /90/180 man sit and go's is a common thing.

I think the reason for the post is a lot to do with the fact that in the last days of November you were doing so well.

So time for a little self analysis here,
Yesterday were you playing tired or stress (from Stuff going on at work (grinds teeth))

Did you play simular games with simular players?

did you play same number of tables.

Did you play tight becuase your still learning or did you (and i still fall for this one Damn you over conferdance) make a few "moves" against the "fish" that you normall wouldn't have done. ( i was doing this after trainings thinking i could "make some moves" guess what the ABC TAG style is still the best in the 45 /90 cent games i was trying the moves in.

Don't get me wrong M. I'm not saying this is the case, but it is worth looking at if only to eliminate it from mix.

We have seen that you play some great poker at this level, you need to remind your self that from time (we all do).

Grade b
I have been playing the same game types and doing the same things. I just could not believe the way the cards was going for me and actually found it amusing the way i was being sucked out. This is why i carried on playing, i was convinced that i was playing my normal game and things had to go my way some time. Once i final tabled 2 tables after 18 losses i got a 1st and 2nd, that's when i posted this thread as i was 100% positive if i was on tilt i wouldn't have achieved the results.
 

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