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Straight & Flush draw HU

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Straight & Flush draw HU - Fri Dec 02, 2011, 01:57 AM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hi Puciek, new thread as requested.
Look forward to your comments.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 02:21 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Preflop is good, JTs is obviously good enough to call HU but I'm not keen on bloating the pot out of position so I like the call.

Flop semibluff bet is good imo.

Turn I would check. The guy called us on the flop with a Q (he's not folding) or a lower pair or draw (he either made 2 pair or we just passed him up). Check and call with a hand that has showdown value HU and a ton of outs to improve. When you bet and he jams, you're in really bad shape. You're never good, and not getting the right price to call off with your draw. You can avoid this by just check/calling though.

Ask yourself if the turn bet is a value bet or bluff? You won't get better hands to fold and you won't get called often by worse, so it's neither, and if he's got a strong hand you're setting yourself up to get raised and have to fold or call off your stack on a draw with 1 card to come.

Even if he just calls the turn, the river is problematic, when you don't improve you have a hand that is generally good for 1-2 streets of value HU (2nd pair) and you are out of position so if you check to him and he bombs the river you're in a pickle again.

Def don't like betting the turn here. Check call is better, and in the right spots (opponent, bet sizing) check/raise jam is better as a strong semi-bluff. Betting out just puts you in a lot of bad spots.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 04:41 AM
(#3)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Lango beat me to most of it.
Only thing I will add is that you put yourself in tough spot against random opponent X (but then again HU is MUCH MUCH MUCH more about reads than cards as for most hands both of you will be airballing). You really need to ask yourself with what he just calls flop and raises all-in turn.
We can discount draws (because we got both of them, him having them too is just against-math for most part), so this leaves us with made hands that improved and possibly a float. A float with AT got there and beats us but we got bout 35% to improve OTR.
Any 2p (2T, 9T, QT) are pretty much the same, beside QT against which J is not an out.
If he have TT, we are in trouble (many of our outs will also make him a full house) but chances for him to have TT are slim since we hold a blocker T.
There is also a minor chance that he is completely bluffing (very minor, in micros HU when people shove they usually have it)

With that in mind, lets look at the odds. It will cost us 1260 to have a shot at 2520+120+240=2880 which is roughly 1260:2880=2,3. This is a close spot (mind that it would be easiest call ever OTF, but OTT its a close one because there is only one card to come), if i am reading my opponent well - I am laying this one down. If not, I call and let faith decide.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:32 AM
(#4)
Mozmoony's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7
Hi Puciek

Would you mind clarifying the odds calculation. On the turn against the all-in I have it as chuckkky calls $985 to win a pot of $1345 which is more like 1.4.

I can't work out where I'm going wrong!
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:39 AM
(#5)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Aw yeah, i double counted his raise for some weird reason, so it's 1260:1640 so it's roughly 1.3 not 1.4. My decision was based on math in head, no the pots i posted here, so it's the same tough decision
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:46 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mozmoony View Post
Hi Puciek

Would you mind clarifying the odds calculation. On the turn against the all-in I have it as chuckkky calls $985 to win a pot of $1345 which is more like 1.4.

I can't work out where I'm going wrong!
240 (pre action pot) + 120 (hero's bet) + 985 (villain's shove) = 985 to win 1345.
1.365 to 1.

You are correct.

The entirety of the villain's jam cannot be counted in pot odds because hero cannot cover the full amount.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:50 AM
(#7)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
And right again, i need to stop doing math openly in the morning, especially in HU cases where it doesn't matter that much so i don't put much attentiont
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:53 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
And right again, i need to stop doing math openly in the morning, especially in HU cases where it doesn't matter that much so i don't put much attentiont
no, it really doesn't...

the difference between 1.365, 1.4 and 1.3 is quite minimal.

No matter which of those numbers you arrive at, it really isn;t changing your decision a ton.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:03 AM
(#9)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
no, it really doesn't...

the difference between 1.365, 1.4 and 1.3 is quite minimal.

No matter which of those numbers you arrive at, it really isn;t changing your decision a ton.
In HU? For most part 1.3 and 2.0 doesn't affect my decision whatsoever :P
 

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