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88 $1.50 9max SNG

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88 $1.50 9max SNG - Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:25 PM
(#1)
Cartilaj's Avatar
Since: Mar 2010
Posts: 10
Villain is a loose passive one. Should I have stopped betting at some point. Is my betting risky?
I made a huge value bet on the turn imagining a T of clubs on the river. It didn't came though

 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:44 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Whenever I am playing in a somewhat deep stack situation, and I find myself facing someone who just will not fold, as commonly happens when facing LP opponents, I often stop and ask myself, "What if I am wrong"?
This is not to mean I live in Fear that my hand is not the best, but rather is a reflection of my desire to know I have outs if I am wrong and I do not hold the best hand.
This does mean that if I am value betitng a marginal strenght hand, one which an opponent might call my bet with less but not one I am pretty sure is best, I REALLY like to know I have some alternate option to win in the form of some sort of outs if I am wrong. I also want to be really certain to NOT put myself or my opponent past a committment point (about 1/3rd invested in the pot) unless I am confident in playing for the remainder of his chips, or at least uber-confident that I can fold (for the rare times a bluff sizing may need to push him past a committment point). I think you missed some of these thoughts in your play here.

Consider...

In this hand, you start off with about 60BB in your stack.
The opponent has about 41BB in his and is the effective stack.

When it folds to you in the SB, your hand is strong enough to be worthy of raising.
When the villain 3bets you though, it is time to start asking "what if I am wrong"...

Pre flop, that means you are investing just a total of 220 to see the flop.
That is only about 7% of your chips, so is a pretty small price to pay if you see a bad flop.
You can possibly flop a set, and if you do, there may be a chance the villain connects hard enough on a hand he is willing to 3Bet that he will pay off pretty strongly with implied odds value.

So if you are wrong, and you do not hold the best hand now, you have a chance to make a truly strong hand on the flop that will likely derive you a good number of chips from a hand strong enough to 3Bet. If you are "wrong" and must fold on the flop, it is a very small amount.

All systems are go...

On the flop you see all small cards, and hold 2nd pair to the board (9 hi flop).
In blind on blind, there is a solid chance you hold the best (if the villain 3bet on 2 big un paired cards), so there is nho reaosn not to lead out to test his willingness to stay.
But again, "what if you are wrong?" and the villain holds a larger pp...

On this flop there is no reason to lead 390 in CASE you are wrong.
A bet of around half pot is enough to deny odds to a flush or straight draw, is certain enough to deny odds to just over cards, and is also inviting enough that he may call it without proper odds.
A bet of 220 (1/2 pot) to maybe 290 (2/3rds pot), will possibly save you a decent number of chips if you are wrong and do not hold the best hand.

On the turn, the villain has not folded.
A pretty bad card comes for you (Jc), and that card makes a straight possibly, a flush, as well as puts 2 overs to your pp on board.
Plus, if you lead again for a half pot bet, the villain is going to be pretty well at a committment poitn and might shove.
Are you liking a shove by him on the turn all that much?

At this point, the answer to "what if I'm wrong?", AFTER you make the 1k turn bet, is you are now stuck in a spot where you are quite likely to lose 2/3rds your start stack.
The fact you picked up a re-draw to the straight and to a weak flush is ok, but it is hardly enough to really love staking 2/3rds your chips on.
I think in this spot I'd favor either a smaller lead, with an intention to bet/fold (to a riase), or even a check if the villain has not shown a large desire to float bluff.
As played, you certainly stuck yourself to the pot...

The river is moot really; by that time you are calling hs remaining chips, so you may as well ensure he gets em in if he holds less...

This means:

1) If you had intended to try 2 bullets on a somewhat marginal holding, you really need to bet smaller on the flop so you can reaosnably bet smaller on the turn as well.
2) Your flop bet sizing is fine if all you are going to try is 1 bullet; but if that gets called you need to be backing off on hands liek this.
3) If you had a BETTER chance of drawing to the best hand, a 2nd large bullet would have bene ok, but in this spot 88 did not have enough wiggle room to keep you from losing a ton of chips if you were wrong.

Hope it helps...

Last edited by JDean; Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 06:09 PM..
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:02 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
I will tell you the most important thing about these is staying ahead of the other stacks.
IF I am sitting anywhere in the top 3 spots,I fold small pairs even bvb.
Have to remember that you could move your self into 3rd or worse with 88 here and is it worth it?
You have a big enough stack to nit and sit back and hope the big stack knocks out another
small stack.

For the hand I am folding preflop because calling is weak against a bad player.Which these have a ton of.Thet will tend to keep firing at you,which is also why I dont like your donk bet on the flop.
Just a term as its best to let the player that raised throw more chips in if you think you have the best hand and you can play from there.

I sit back and wait till the table is 6 left and open up a very small amount,quite often you dont need to even play a hand to get down to 5.
If the big stack is on your left you dont need to worry much about playing weaker hands,you catch something you know they are going to bully and boom your sitting in 2nd off of one hand.
Strategy is simple in these and dont get caught up in medicore spots like this one.
Especially this early with your chipstack.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:04 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
I open up with 4 left if your wondering where I change my strategy.
Find post flop is super easy at this level to pick off.
My problem when I played these was I liked to play 12-15 at a time to grind FPPs as well.
It cut down on my ROI big time.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:39 PM
(#5)
Cartilaj's Avatar
Since: Mar 2010
Posts: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

1) If you had intended to try 2 bullets on a somewhat marginal holding, you really need to bet smaller on the flop so you can reaosnably bet smaller on the turn as well.
2) Your flop bet sizing is fine if all you are going to try is 1 bullet; but if that gets called you need to be backing off on hands liek this.
3) If you had a BETTER chance of drawing to the best hand, a 2nd large bullet would have bene ok, but in this spot 88 did not have enough wiggle room to keep you from losing a ton of chips if you were wrong.

Hope it helps...
I never put it that way. My bet sizing was very very bad given this situation. I think I bet everything out like I had the disguised nuts, which I didn't.

thanks a lot for your point of view, I'll try and see it like that the next time I'm in a similar spot.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 05:40 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartilaj View Post
I never put it that way. My bet sizing was very very bad given this situation. I think I bet everything out like I had the disguised nuts, which I didn't.

thanks a lot for your point of view, I'll try and see it like that the next time I'm in a similar spot.
I was only commenting on your POSSIBLE thought process in terms of the "plan" you might have had for the hand.

Betting twice would have been fine with a hand like 88, but only if you had kept the pot smaller to avoid reaching a committment point for the REST of the villain's stack after those 2 bets.

Betting large is fine too, as long s you only try it once.

It really helps to have a plan for your betting, so you do not find yourself in a sticky spot at a loss for what to do...

I wouldn't go so far as to say your sizing was TERRIBLE, as elements of it would have been fine to use. But when put all together, the effect was too committing for you and that was bad.

See?

Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 05:42 AM..
 

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