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priced villain out, but he reraises then hits

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priced villain out, but he reraises then hits - Fri Dec 02, 2011, 05:37 PM
(#1)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
I feel I played this reasonably well. The limpers all had fairly wide ranges, and I'd been getting junk for ages so I felt like throwing some chips in even though I know KQo isn't the best from the BB.
No real read on villain other than Loose and slightly aggressive.
Priced villain off the flush draw on the flop, and he should have put me on top pair with good kicker since it was only the second hand I'd played all tourney

On the reraise I did think about folding since I thought maybe he'd flopped 2 pair. In hindsight I should have just jammed the pot instead of betting 400. Since I was going to call anyway when my bet was raised.

I guess only consolation is at least it was only early / mid stages in the tourney, I hate bubbling on hands like this.


Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Fri Dec 02, 2011 at 05:40 PM.. Reason: thoughts
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcrockpot View Post
I'd been getting junk for ages so I felt like throwing some chips in even though I know KQo isn't the best from the BB.
Don't ever play a hand for that reason. It means that you're not being patient enough.... which is something mandatory for a poker player to learn.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:16 PM
(#3)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Don't ever play a hand for that reason. It means that you're not being patient enough.... which is something mandatory for a poker player to learn.
You're right. Should I have just checked here? Or smaller raise?
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:35 PM
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If I were playing it, I'm going to check it pre (to conceal the strength of my hand) and save those chips for betting the flop.
With only 200 in the pot pre, then a value bet on the flop won't be as large (100-125). That way, if the opp does a large re-raise, then you have the option to get out of the hand.

The way you played it, your 400 bet on the flop does NOT price them out. They need to call 400 chips, into a pot of 1k (40%). They have 9 outs to a flush, 2 outs to trips and 3 outs to a 7 (not all of these are true outs, but it'll be what the opp looks at) With 14 outs * 4% per out, they will think they have 56% equity... which is alot more than the 40% they'd have to put in. Therefore they ARE priced into the hand.

I would not want to be all-in on the flop, becuase someone could be ahead of me (set, combination flush/striaght draw, 2 pair, AK).

If I played it where I still had chips left on the turn... I'm shipping it there, because I'd have hit top 2 pair and by only having 1 more card to draw, lowers the opp's equity in half (shove then, with a check pre and a value bet on the flop, and they would be priced out).
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 06:55 PM
(#5)
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I'm confused on outs now.. and how you price people off draws..

I always thought when calculating odds you compare % to add to pot, to % of hitting your card on only the NEXT street, since betting starts again on the next card..

So in this case villain needs to call $400 to be in with a chance of winning a $1400 pot. I.e. he has to put in ~29% of the pot.

Looking at just the flush outs he has 9. I learnt multiply by 2 and add 1 to get the rough percentage chance, so ~19% of hitting his hand on the turn. So his chance of improving on the next card is less than the % he has to put in the pot so it is not profitable to call. You can't look at outs to the river since if he doesn't hit on the turn I may make him pay again to see the river

Obviously thinking about it now I see why allin on the flop is bad, because THEN you can't multiply outs by 4 since no more bets possible from me on turn or river. But on the flop when my stack isn't in there he can't count his outs over the next two cards since he's not seen what (if anything) I will bet on the turn. Make sense?
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:02 PM
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for %'s with outs, it's 4% per out on the flop and 2% per out on the turn.

You want to look at their overall %, not just 1 street (unless there is only 1 street to go).

Please take a look at this thread.... it has the exact numbers.
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...hit-your-cards

If you only count their flush outs, then it's roughly 36%, exactly 36.4% for their odds on the flop.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
for %'s with outs, it's 4% per out on the flop and 2% per out on the turn.

You want to look at their overall %, not just 1 street (unless there is only 1 street to go).

Please take a look at this thread.... it has the exact numbers.
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...hit-your-cards

If you only count their flush outs, then it's roughly 36%, exactly 36.4% for their odds on the flop.
But if you count outs to the river that assumes no more betting on the turn. Unless your opponent is allin you should only look at outs to the next street right?
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...nd-Outs?page=4
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:32 PM
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You need to look at the odds that the opp will make the hand on any street, not just one.
When you get to the turn, then you re-evaluate the %'s put into the pot vs hand equity again... for the bets on the turn.

In alot of cases, you or an opp could be priced in on the flop... but then when the equity gets cut in 1/2 on the turn (assuming the same number of outs)... then the turn will normally be when a player is priced out.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 07:37 PM
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So it's a different thought process compared to deciding to call a bet?
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 08:04 PM
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It's the same type of process as with calling a bet, except if you are the one betting, you need to make the opp put more chips into the pot than the equity that they have at that point in time.... and that will need to be re-evaluated for each and every time that you bet.

ex: for making a bet on the flop, you need to bet more than 4% of the pot for each out that you think they have. OR more than 2% of the pot for each out that you think they have on the turn.

If you know you're ahead at the flop, it can easily be done by making a pot sized bet if against one opponent. But.. for each other player in the pot... the more that are in, the more you have to bet to price someone out.
 
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Fri Dec 02, 2011, 11:36 PM
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Please explain more JWK, or anyone else for that matter. I was also under the impression that when we caculate our outs/pot odds for a draw it is only relevant for that one particular street of betting (unless we are all in), and so the same principal would apply for denying an opponent the correct odds.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 12:47 AM
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the % numbers for how many chips you put in are only relevant to that one bet, but what you need to look at are the % in equity that an opp has at that one particular point in time. These numbers need re-evaluated for each bet and each street.

The equity numbers will be better for you or an opp drawing if it's after the flop, since they have 2 chances to hit one of their outs. Due to having 2 chances to hit after the flop (turn and river), the equity % for their hand will be double on the flop, compared to their equity on the turn.

The chart that TOO2COO put up that I linked in an earlier post gives the equity amount based on how many outs, for both the flop and the turn. If you notice, the turn % is almost 1/2 the flop %.

If you're looking to call a bet made by an opponent, then you want to make sure that your equity % based on the number of outs that you have is higher than the % of chips you need to put into the pot.
If you're trying to price out an opponent, you want to bet enough that the % of the pot's chips that the opponent must put in is much higher than their equity %.

ex: there are 3 in the pot on the flop and you are ahead and want to price out an opponent with a flush draw. say the pot has 1k in it now. To price out an opponent, you need to make sure that if the first opp calls your bet, the amount of chips that the 2nd player would have to put in is much higher than 36% (9 outs x 4% per out).

Say you made a pot sized bet, then there is 1k in already, plus your 1k, plus the first opp's 1k, making 3k in the pot. The 2nd opp will have to put 1k into a pot that will be 4k (25%). They have 36% equity, so the opp should call it every time, as they have more equity than what they have to put into the pot.
If the first opp drops to a 1k bet, then the pot will be 3k if the 2nd opp calls (1k/3k=33.3%), they still have 36% equity, so it's a call for them.

Therefore, if you need to price out an opp, you need to bet a lot more than the size of the pot. Even at double the size of the pot, the opps are still priced in on the flop.
If you bet 2k, then if the first drops, then the opp will have to call 2k into a pot of 5k, which is 40% (more than their equity, so they should fold.. but since it's close, they may stay). If the first opp stays, then it's 2k into a pot of 7k (28.5%).... easy call, as the opp has 36% equity.

Now, same type of situation, opp has a flush draw against us, but it's on the turn, with 1k in the pot.
The opp's hand equity gets cut in 1/2. The 9 outs are now only worth 18% equity.
Here, if we make a pot sized bet, then the opps WILL be priced out. If both stay, then the 2nd opp will have to put 25% into a pot where they have 18% equity..... and since the chip % is more than their equity, they should fold.

It's much, much easier to price someone out on the turn, than it is on the flop, due to their hands having double the equity on the flop, compared to the turn.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 07:49 AM
(#13)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
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Thanks jwk24. That makes sense. I was just confused because the advice in the poker school core course says only to calculate your outs based on the next street. http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...nd-Outs?page=4
In what situation would you use this other method?
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 09:40 AM
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My understanding is that we cannot calculate correct pot odds vs outs for a draw on the flop in terms of our equity in the whole hand up until the river, but only in terms of the chances that one of out outs will hit on the turn. This is because we do not know how much money will will have to put in after the turn card; so we cannot know the pot odds for the whole hand, we can only know the pot odds up until the turn. The only time we can calculate out equity in the whole hand (up until the river) is when we are put all in on the flop, this is because there is no more betting so we will know our exact price to call up until the river.

For example lets say we have a flush draw on the flop, and lets assume that all our outs are true outs and that if we hit our flush then we will win the hand. There is $4 in the pot and our opponent bets $1. The pot is now offering us 5:1 to call, and our chance of hitting our flush on the turn is about 4:1 so we should call. Now lets say instead of 1$ our opponent bets $4. Now we are getting pot odds of 2:1 for our chance off hitting our flush on the turn so we are not getting the correct price to call. If both players still have plenty of money left behind we have no idea of how much the final pot will be so we can only calculate of pot odds in terms the available information. Now if our opponent bets $4 on the flop and we only $4 left behind we can call because we know the pot odds all the way to the river will 2:1 and our chance of hitting our flush on the turn or the river is also about 2:1 (this is only a break-even call but not a losing one).

I hope this makes sense, please correct me if I am wrong.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 11:37 AM
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I normally try to use equity numbers, as for me it's easier to calculate in my head (have been playing live for years, so obviously don't have all the computer programs, like pokerstove, with me there). It's the same principles though.

In your example. you need to put $1 into a pot of $5 (20% which is the same as 5-1), you have 36% equity here (4% times 9 outs). The equity is larger, so it's a call.
If the opp bets $4, then you need to put $4 into a pot of $8 (50% which is 2-1), you still have 36% equity, so it's a fold.

Now, let's look at your example if it was the turn. If pot is $4 and opp bets $1, it's $1 into 5 (20%, same as above) but now our hand equity is much less (2% times 9 outs) or 18%. That means it is slightly -EV to call here, but marginal. If the opp bets $4 (we still need to put in 33%), but since we only have 18% equity, this makes this a clear fold.

You have to calculate the pot odds (equities) at that particular point and not count in any additional chips (unless you're 100% sure that you can get the opponent to stack off, which won't always happen... implied odds).
Trying to add in additional chips is something that many players try to use as a reason to call, when it's not guaranteed that the opp will put more chips in. It's one of the card player's fallacies.

It's also much easier to price an opponent out if it is a head-up pot, as with multiway pots, anyone with a very strong draw will be priced in if everyone stays.
 

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