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turn decision w/ QQ

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turn decision w/ QQ - Sat Dec 03, 2011, 01:53 AM
(#1)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
I recently

Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 01:27 PM.. Reason: rewording
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 04:10 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Whoa...

That is a bit of a tight fold there!

Ok...

Ranging the villain is hard in this spot, but this appears as if he has a hand with some value here certainly.

Let's look at your actions...

First, you min raise to open. A lot of people will attack a seemingly weak open raise from position with a very wide range.

Next, you've won 4 of the last 12 hands. You've only shown down 1 of those hands, and it was AA.
It does not matter whether you were on a mad rush of cards and caught AA each of those 4 hands, or if you were being a wild maniac, your table has seen you involved in 5 of the last 12 hands. That APPEARS loose, whether it is or not, and a lot of times a loose player will get attacked, especially form those with position.

Now the villain...

In minimal time at the table, we havealready seen him play 30% of the hands he has gotten.
You do not give a great deal of info on yourself, nor a whole lot on the villain, but if he is the sort of palyer who is noticing things, he may well have some sort of medium strength hand and i looking to bang on you a bit wih what he figures is AHEAD of your range.

A note on your read of the time it takes him:

Timing tells can be improtant on line. Often, when a villain has been acting quickly and suddenly takes a little bit of time, he has made a big hand he is looking to get paid off on. This is usually the case on the flop or later though, and is not eally rock solid pre flop.

The aggression started here pre flop, as did the timing you note.

That time he took could well indicate he thought over the value of a medium strength hand, and compared it to what he had seen from you previously. Sure, it COULD be AA/KK, but realistically, if he were trying to milk you with those monster hands the villain may well raise LESS in order to get you to stick around a bit more often. This is why I'd discount the effacacy of a timing tell in this spot, and put him more on a medium strength hand.

That means on the flop I have him tentatively on a middle type pp (77 thru JJ), A big Ace (AT thru AK), or KQ as my start point. Obviously I am considering AA/KK and even QQ as possible, and also considering pp smaller than 77 possible. Any 2 broadways are also possible. But the CORE of my flop range is 77 to JJ, AT to AK, and KQ.

On the flop, the villain bets 2/3rds pot (roughly). This changes my ranging a bit, and lends more weight to the medium pp, and less to the over cards.
The sizing of the bet (behind your check) is such that I am really NOT thinking anything vastly different about his pp size, unless you have hown yourself to be a loose enough caller to make someone with AA/KK think they can just ride to value town on your back. I still think big aces are possible and this is a C-Bet to try to get you to fold. My tentative adjustments have changes to wiegh mid pp the most, then big broadways less (about 2 to 1 tilt to pp), a smaller % to BIG pp, and an even smaller % to random 2 broadways.

Versus the bulk of my ranging (JJ - 77) you have about 85% equity on the flop.
I'd say this makes up about 60% of my total ranging thoughts.

Versus the next biggest part, (AT - AK, KQ), you have about 78.5% equity on this flop.
I'd say these make up about 30% of my ranging thoughts.

Versus the combination of bigger AND smaller pp (AA/KK/QQ AND 66 - 22) you have about 31% equity on this flop.
That makes up about 9% of my total range thoughts.

The last 1% is made up of random hands, against which you have about 71% equity on this flop.
What follows is a dimensional analysis to combine the equity in all possibly situations, and weight them based upon my perception of probablility:
If there is a 60% chance we have 85% equity, then 85 x .6 = 51%
If there is a 30% chance we have 78.5% equity, then 78.5 x .3 = 23.55%
If there is a 9% chance we have 31% equity, then 31 x .09 = 2.79%
If there is a 1% chance we have 71% equity, then 71 x .01 = .71%

Add all those up, and we get 78.05% equity, weighted for the perceived likelihood of ALL possibilities.
We are, in all likelihood, ahead by a good margin on this flop.

Now before I go on, I used poker stove for the calcs above, and realistically, setting up a somewhat finicky multi range calc then combining it by weight is not going to be possible in a hand. What IS possible however is to test the BULK of your read range in poker stove while in a hand. All you have to do is determine how far ahead you are on the largest part of your range read (in this case, for me the JJ thru 77 part), and make a rough guess at how far behind you are on the worst case part of your ranging.

Doing this you'd see you are probably WAY ahead, or way behind, and all you have to determine then is which you think is MORE LIKELY, and by how much.

For this flop, I'd think we are far enough ahead to lead out, or even try a C/R if we think the villain will C-Bet quite frequently.
You do not do that though, you check/call...

That brings us to the turn...

That turn really changes nothing.
No diamond came, so the chance you may have lost to a flush is not there.
No straight has filled which had not filled on the flop anyway.
The only difference is that a single minor over pair MAY have made a set to beat us, and living in total fear of that is a bit like being scared of monsters under the bed.

The villain's turn bet is smaller as a % of the pot than his flop bet, but not by much.
To me, that means he is probably still on the same sort of range we had for the pre flop action, JJ - 77.
There is a bit less chance he is on un-paired overs now, since he did fire a 2nd bullet, but realistically, your PASSIVE check/call line with a major over pair may also have encouraged him to think you are the one drawing. That means we cannot totally discount the fact he may still be on un-paired overs at least some of the time.
Obviously, there is also a chance he is on a bigger pp than us...

Still, I do not like the fold here given the info you provided.

Yes, we MIGHT be beaten here, but the hands ahead of us are a small part of the range we can probably assign, and there are far more hands BEHIND our QQ that would act in exactly the way the villain did here in response to our actions. If you have some info that he is uber TIGHT, obviously that would effect our ranging, but you didn;t give that sort of info in this psot at all.

As such, I think you should have probably C/R'ed the flop AT LEAST, as a value raise, as this would also clarify the range a bit more.
On the turn, it is a bit late to C/R him, as a standard C/R sizing here will stick you hard for the rest of this guy's stack.
My personal feeling is that I'd be fine with playing for his stack with what is still a major over-pair, but you might be a little more risk averse than that here.
I'd rank my turn choices in order (or me) as:

1) Raise, making it $1 to $1.20 to go, with the intent to play for stacks.
2) Flat call, with the intent to call for his whole stack unless an over card or another straight card or flush card comes on the river (a bit meh)
3) Fold (really meh in my opinion)

I Think you had this guy ranged TOO TIGHTLY here, and that caused you to fold what might have been a hand big enough to be a winner here.
Afterall...

If you were not going to play an over pair on the flop STRONGLY, if that is what you saw with your QQ, why even call the pre flop raise at all, right?

Some PSO Videos you might want to check out:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...3-Hand-Reading
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...r-exploitation
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...quity-Maximize

Hope it helps.

Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 03, 2011 at 05:17 AM..
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 10:15 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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I'm not folding there. There are too many times the opp will have air there.

First, do not min raise, if you're going to get into a hand, raise to 3BB (or more if there are limpers).

Also, their bets were value type bets, which an opp will make with Ax or diamonds, especially at 2NL and you're ahead of all of those hands.

The only realistic hands you're behind are AA, KK, or a set (and I discount the set, because a low pair will not be raising like they did preflop).

They may have one of the two monster hands you're behind, but I'd have at least called, if not led out on either the flop or the turn.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 02:30 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,489
(Head Trainer)
Without reads, I think you played it fine.

Most 2nl FR players will be very strong taking this line (the ones that aren't, well, you need reads to know that). c/c turn and c/f river would suck, but you can't really call 3 big barrels for stacks without reads.

Preflop since the majority of 2nl randoms don't 3b light pre I like just flatting. Check/call on the flop is ok, so would donking into him. Check/fold would be way too tight on the flop and check/raise a bit too spewy. As played I think you made the right turn decision.

This hand is a great example of how difficult it is to play both out of position and with no history or reads on the opponent.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 02:44 PM
(#5)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Hi rule110 !
Interesting hand. First of all, u didn’t mentioned in this post that u have hand history of this opponent. So u don’t really know how he plays overpairs, sets, mid pocket pairs. The only way u could know this is by seeing what cards he holds at showdown (or when he shows them) and how he played them. According to what u said this was his 3rd hand, the previous 2 he folded so ur playing a guessing game with this player. You can’t possibly tell if he is skilled or new to the game since u have no info on the guy. Maybe he’s just an ultra loose aggressive opponent or maybe a maniac who knows! You’re being too generous, giving him too much credit. I put him on this range 77-JJ (most likely a medium strength made hand) and A10+. 55 is also a possibility, he may be semi-bluffing aggressively an open ended straight draw (but what doesn’t add up is his strong pre flop reraise for a 55? If so, he is very loose or trying to rep a stronger hand since ur preflop min raise showed weakness). Not sure if it’s a flush draw he is playing aggressively with AKs. The way u rep’ed ur hand since the beginning, makes it look like u might have a weak hand, especially after a preflop open, so he might also very likely be bluffing u off the pot with air with his flop and turn bet, hoping u didn’t catch any card from the board. After all he had position over u and u checked the flop trying to slow play it on a draw heavy board. They say that good players bluff little in micro stakes but u have no background on this guy, so why so sure he is value betting u? You could be in trouble though, if he sensed weakness on ur questionable preflop raise and bluff reraised u with something like 4 3 or 5 7, trying to steal the pot and then u call and he flops 2 pair or a straight and now he’s value betting the turn on a disguised monster. Very unlikely though. Personally, I would’ve called down his turn bet, willing to go down with the ship if he puts u all in on the river. A raise for information is also an intelligent option to help u range him better. The chances of being beat by a higher pp or a set are very small (JDean did the maths for this in his review Btw great reviews by JDean and JWK24!) but still possible and should also be considered. Of course we cannot rule out him having the nuts since any 2 cards are possible for him to have, but you should make ur decisions according to what are the likelyness of ur opponent having them. According to my read of the opponent’s holding a call is a must, ur hand seems to be standing way ahead. You could very much win the pot to a lower pocket pair or if u don’t, u get valuable information on this guy so u can adjust you’re game accordingly against him for the next hands. Enough +EV for me to call. Very cautious fold there, playing too safe poker, but with these stakes u might as well risked it. Overestimate your opponent when he deserves it. That being said it’s better to overestimate than to underestimate an opponent since even a known bluffer is entitled to hold pocket rockets. Hope it helps bro. Peace!
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 03:14 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I think you played this very well. 3-bet pre is probably TT+, AQ+. Check/call flop is good, but most 2NL players won't be double-barrelling Ace high. You're behind KK and AA, you're ahead of TT and JJ, but do you really want to call another huge river bet with just one pair?

Quote:
Preflop since the majority of 2nl randoms don't 3b light pre I like just flatting.
I would think this would be an argument in favor of 4-betting. Since their 3-bet range should be strong there isn't a lot in his 3-bet/fold range, and we could get value from hands like TT, JJ, AQ, AK.

Quote:
This hand is a great example of how difficult it is to play both out of position and with no history or reads on the opponent.
Bingo. Playing out of position sucks. Even with a hand as big as QQ.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 03:17 PM
(#7)
Maj. D Zastr's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 120
He had TT :)
And personally I'd be willing to risk 50ç, or even 2 bucks, on it.

Reason I'm replying though, just to say this is a great place to learn, you never stop, and I really appreciate people putting the effort into explaining, dissecting and discussing, JD in particular is certainly worth reading, but not just him, most people here I really appreciate, thanks.
 
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Sat Dec 03, 2011, 08:12 PM
(#8)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
I just happen to remember about a similar situation I experienced myself when playing HU OOP against an aggressive opponent. The flop came 5 high (3 2 5) I bet, my opponent raises, I reraise, he rereraises all in and I call. I had TT and he had 66. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t have AA, but I took the chance. Possibly the villain from your posted hand had sevens or even nines. But for sure he had to have something… since 2NL players normally don’t multi-barrel bluff with air. In the future, picking ur spots to play in position should help a lot. Another thing to consider is not to slow play queens or any other strong overpair for that matter on dangerous wet boards (like 3 4 6 with two diamonds).. it can be cracked, after all it’s only one pair. Anyways, without history or reads on the opponent I think u did the right play! Keep it up
 
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Sun Dec 04, 2011, 03:00 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,489
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I would think this would be an argument in favor of 4-betting. Since their 3-bet range should be strong there isn't a lot in his 3-bet/fold range, and we could get value from hands like TT, JJ, AQ, AK.
Hate 4 betting without reads, we don't know it this guy is 3 betting TT or AQ (many 2nl randoms will just be flatting these) and we don't know if 4 betting would get those hands to commit or fold them out.
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 04:37 AM
(#10)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
Thank-you

Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 01:28 PM.. Reason: wanted to add something
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 08:26 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You gotta remember, when in doubt a FOLD before you've invested a ton is always an option.

While I do think this is a VERY tight fold, the check/call line you took on the flop did tend to control the pot somewhat. Yeah, the "book" says anything around a 4 to 6 SPR is the point where you want to start thinking about going with an over pair, and after your flop call you are right about there (5.8 SPR going into the turn).

But the turn bet by the villain is where you REALLY are deciding...

You cannot call that without pretty much locking yourself into a river call (at least), so I DO see reason for your fold. Afterall, money not lost spends the same as money won...

My thinking is skewed by the perception of micro stakes players, and while I totally agree with TheLangolier that 2 solid bullets by a micro player means VALUE, the micro player tends to have a less developed sense of hand "worth".

To a typical micro player 99/TT here is GOLD...as would something like A8 or even A6. It simply does not seem to cross their minds that TP/TK is not a great hand in EVERY circumstance. But I do also recognize that it is pretty rare that a micro player bluffs when making a pretty standard size bet.

So while I do see your fold as pretty tight, I cannot really say I DIS-AGREE with it completely. Sometimes a semi cheap fold without info NOW is better than trying to make a hero call of a big bet on the river...

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 08:36 AM..
 

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