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cant decide if I made mistake here- please advise

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cant decide if I made mistake here- please advise - Sat Dec 03, 2011, 11:29 PM
(#1)
peter450f's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4
PokerStars Game #71533329168: Tournament #478207372, $3.26+$0.24 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (40/80) - 2011/12/04 2:00:14 NZT [2011/12/03 8:00:14 ET]
Table '478207372 1' 10-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: peter450f (2945 in chips)
Seat 2: Bucksy88 (1967 in chips)
Seat 3: VTomukas (3686 in chips)
Seat 4: nenyuhaifen (1394 in chips)
Seat 5: sergkamp (760 in chips)
Seat 7: pepincekos (2518 in chips)
Seat 9: AnneMM84 (1110 in chips)
Seat 10: xyzheng (620 in chips)
peter450f: posts the ante 5
Bucksy88: posts the ante 5
VTomukas: posts the ante 5
nenyuhaifen: posts the ante 5
sergkamp: posts the ante 5
pepincekos: posts the ante 5
AnneMM84: posts the ante 5
xyzheng: posts the ante 5
nenyuhaifen: posts small blind 40
sergkamp: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to peter450f [Qc Jc]
pepincekos: calls 80
AnneMM84: folds
xyzheng: folds
peter450f: calls 80
Bucksy88: calls 80
VTomukas: folds
nenyuhaifen: folds
sergkamp: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qd Ks Td]
sergkamp: bets 80
pepincekos: raises 2353 to 2433 and is all-in
peter450f: folds
Bucksy88: folds
sergkamp: folds
Uncalled bet (2353) returned to pepincekos
pepincekos collected 560 from pot
pepincekos: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 560 | Rake 0
Board [Qd Ks Td]
Seat 1: peter450f folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Bucksy88 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: VTomukas (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: nenyuhaifen (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: sergkamp (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: pepincekos collected (560)
Seat 9: AnneMM84 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: xyzheng folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
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Sun Dec 04, 2011, 12:36 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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*** moved to seperate thread since new topic JWK24 ***
 
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Sun Dec 04, 2011, 12:48 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Since this is early in a tourney, the main thing to remember, is that your opponents will limp with almost anything, any A, any suited, any 2 broadway cards, small to mid pairs, etc.

Due to this, when I'm playing a hand early, I prefer to either raise or fold preflop... unless I'm in the big blind and can see the hand for free.
You can limp and try to flop a monster, but you're out of position and that makes for a really, really tricky hand. If it's me, I'm most likely mucking it early and try to look for a hand when I've got position.

On the flop, you have 2nd pair and an open-ended straight draw. That is a decent drawing hand, but one opp bets, then another shoves. One of them could easily have a K and be ahead of you, two pair or AJ for the nuts too. Due to this and another behind you to act, folding IS the correct play.

You want to save your chips and only put them all-in early in a tourney when you know that you have the best hand. In this situation, you will almost never have the best hand, especially with 4 players seeing the flop.
 
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Sun Dec 04, 2011, 12:55 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
No mistake at all.

Pre flop, your hand is a solid speculative hand, and with 30BB+ in your stack, there is room enough to call a limp in LP.

Flop, looks good for you, with 2nd pr and a oesd. But with only 80 chips invested so far, why would you want to risk most of your stack by calling an all in on 2nd pair?

The thing you have to consider is the difference between your "clean" and "dirty" outs here.

On this board, you probably do not hold the best hand right now if someone is willing to ship. That means you need to weigh the chance you will MAKE the best hand.

On the face of it, you might think you have any 9, and A as outs, since both give you a straight. You may also think that any Q to give you trips are live outs. Any J to make 2 pair may be a live out too. So at maximum you have 14 live outs. BUT...

There is a possible straight already here.
That means if the shover has the A hi straight, 9's do you no good at all.
An Ad coming might make someone a flush.

You only have 2 live outs to a CHOP versus an A hi straight (1 out is "dirty" because it might make a flush), and there is huge questions whether a 9 is good enough.

The value of hitting your 2nd pair is also very weak, since doing so puts 4 consecutive straight cards on the board and makes anyone with an A or a 9 a straight.

Hitting a Q is probably your best bet actually, but even that may not be enough if the shover has 2 pr (one of the pr's being Qs) or a set, or a made straight.

So realistically, a shover here has to like his hand, or at least like his chances to improve.
2nd pair is hardly ever the best hand in this situation.
Having so many questions about whether cards coming that improve your hand will actually improve you to the BEST hand means this should be an insta-fold...no question about it.

check out this link: http://www.pokerjesusonline.com/discounting_outs.htm

It may help out a bit.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 12:58 AM..
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 01:26 AM
(#5)
peter450f's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4
thanks for that info
 

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