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Should I have just called the raise

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Should I have just called the raise - Sun Dec 04, 2011, 02:59 PM
(#1)
AAmaybe's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 2
This is a hand in the world record tourney earlier

I was thinking of putting pressure on hands like AK AQ etc should I have just called in this position with a decent stack at time


Last edited by AAmaybe; Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 03:00 PM.. Reason: wrong hand 1st time round
 
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Sun Dec 04, 2011, 03:05 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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This can be a tricky spot, and there is no really clear right or wrong in terms of flatting or shoving without more info on the opponent. Consider...

The villain open raised for almost a third of his chips. It is not really all that likely he will fold to a jam, right?

If you flat here, you run the risk of not flopping a set AND seeing at least 1 over card to your JJ about 57% to 58% of the time. Any c-bet you make on the flop is going to stick you for the rest of his stack if he shoves over you, and any check that sees him shove is going to be a tough call for you if there is an over on the board.

So that means what you really have to look at is the equity JJ has versus the RANGE of hands this villain might make a committing raise on.

It is simply too expensive for you to try turning JJ into a set mining hand here, and it may be too risky to to NOT test him now. Obviously, a lot of your decision has to be based on what you can put him on, and what you have observed in his paly tendencies that might lead you to a chance to make a donk lead (donk bet = leading oop after calling a raise) and getting paid off by worse or folding him out if he holds a better hand.

Personally, I am going to view this a lot more often than not as a push/fold decision.

If the open raiser's range is extremely tight (whch is likely, given that he made a ommitting raise but did not move all in), then I may well view JJ a lot like I would 77/88/99 and fold.

If he is not very disciplined in his raise sizing, or if he is not very stack aware nad has been raise/folding large percentages of his stack, I am probably much more like to just jam and let the chips all where they will.

So in the end, the answer to your question is "it depends"...

...and what it depends on is what you have observed about your opponent.

Hope it helps.

Last edited by JDean; Sun Dec 04, 2011 at 03:14 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 02:42 AM
(#3)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
When playing this hand I wouldn't forget the limper or the BB either. Both have stack sizes that are worth considering when deciding what to do here.

You can fold, you can rr (not necessarily allin), or you can just call.

Firstly, the open limper in the HJ(32.34bb) has about 80% of the chips you do. I know that he has limped, and if he has been limp-folding a lot, I don't fault your shove, but this is dependent on your history at the table with this player. Because when you move allin here you allow him to play perfectly against you for 80% of you chips. If you assume his 3bet shove-calling range is tight, especially as your allin 3bet is for all of his chips, you are going to be behind here when called by this player:

assume his tight 3bet shove-calling range consists of 4.7% of opening hands. This gives him a range of TT+, AQs+, AQo+. Against this range your equity is:

JcJh=46.876%
TT+,AQs+,AQo+=53.124%,

A tighter 3bet calling range, say 3.5% of hands, consisting of TT+, AKs, AKo gives,

JcJh=43.229%
TT+, AKs, AKo=56.771%.

Secondly, the BB(7.075bb), if he has anything at all, is likely to go allin, and if the CO is aware of the stack sizes here, he will realize if the BB enters the pot (assuming you haven't entered the pot at this point) that this could entice the HJ to call or shove over with a wider range. It is like the CO is saying with his 5bb raise that he knows that both the BB and the HJ could be in the pot and that he doesn't care , because he is never folding and wants to get the money in.

So what to do with JJ here, like JDean said, is very dependent on your history with these players and the ranges you put them on given this history. Considering the amount of chips the HJ has (80% of your own), if you decide to rr I would raise less, as a smaller raise will accomplish the same as an allin, but without risking 80% of your chips to someone who gets to play perfectly against you after he sees what you do. A rr to 2600 or so doesn't commit you should the HJ 4bet shove over your 3bet, although, like shoving allin, it doesn't change your commitment versus the CO.

Should the HJ 4bet you allin after you raise to 2600, he is doing so for more than 30bb, and JJ isn't doing well in these kind of situations, and you can disgustedly throw your hand away and wait for a better spot.

Also, a rr to 2600 may entice the HJ to call with a worse holding that you can get some value from, especially if the BB calls allin for his remaining 7.075bb.

I don't like flatting here as it leaves the door open for the HJ to shove over both you and the CO as a bluff or with a strong hand, putting you to a hard decision for most of your chips. If he does 4bet allin and you call and lose, you will only have 1608 left, just over 8bb, and this would not be a good result.
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 06:58 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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*self Edit, duplicate post*

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 07:59 AM..
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 07:59 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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That reply is reasonable, but I really do not like even a tiny RR here.

The problem with even a min 3Bet here is that raising to make it 2600 to go puts 32.5% of your chips in the pot. Do you REALLY want to fold that amount?

Plus, the limper jamming over us does not necessarily price us out of a call here.

Example:

Blinds = 100/200

Pot before we act = 1750.
Pot AFTER we 3Bet to 2600 = 4350
Now...

If we assume the HJ Villain jams, we are presented with a call of 3668 for a chance to win 10,618.
About 2.9 to 1.

With only about 26% equity needed to break even on EV, are we REALLY folding off 32.5% of our stack there a lot?
About the only way we could even continence it would be if the HJ NEVER has AK/AQ in his range here, as even vs. a range of pp TT+ we have about 35% equity.

(Note: this is a MTT/SNG so break even equity is often not enough to call, un-like in ring game play. But to me, if put in a big chunk of chips, I'm not folding break even equity in a tourney game very often at all!)

Also, as noted the raiser here has made quite a comitting raise (26.5% of stack), so he is un-likely to fold and leave himself with just 13.5BB. If he stands, our price goes up to 3668 to win 13396, or 3.65 to 1...very near what we'd need to call if he knew we were dominated.

Rule101 makes a great point about an immediate all in move causing the HJ player to play his hand "perfectly". In accordance with the Fundemental theorem of poker (see link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker ), any time you act in a way which causes opponents to act as they wold if all cards were known, you LOSE VALUE. For those who are not familiar with this concept, please allow me to present an example:

Let's say HJ has limped a hand like A8s.
If we move all in, even a very BAD player will recognize that unless we have been pretty maniacal, A8s is not going to play very well versus a range we'd be able to confidently move in on.
That means our all in tends to fold out WORSE hands without allowing them to pay us off, and allows BETTER hands to call with max value form us.
That is BAD for us...

...usually.



To me, the biggest problem with a smaller raise is that the HJ will make a MISTAKE here, and call anyway. A "mistake call" by the HJ of a smaller RR by us could singificantly increase our overall risk in the hand with a holding like JJ.

Obviously, with more information we may find a mistake less likely, but at the micro stakes it is all too common for players to view only the pot odds potential of a call, and miss the effect on their STACK of a call.

An immediate all in tends to ISOLATE you on the mostly comitted short stack who raised to 1000.
If we allow the HJ to possible make a "mistake" in sticking aorund we fall a-foul of a special exception to the Fundemental theorem of Poker for Multi-Way pots called "Morton's Theorem" (see this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morton%27s_theorem ). Consider...

Let's say we raise small, and despite the situation being what it is, HJ CALLS with a hand like AQ (a pretty weak call on this action, with only 200 invested).
If the shorter stack who raised had a hand like AK, we have just INCREASED our chance of losing the hand by allowing an extra over card to stay in for the flop.

If you had any real chance to fold to a 4bet Jam by the HJ, OR if HJ had any real ability to fold after CALLING a small 3Bet by you, Morton's theorem would have little effacacy at a NLHE table. In NLHE, the variable sizing of the bets (as opposed to FLHE) levels a constant "threat" to the remainder of an opponent's stack commensurate with the efective stack in the hand, so an early street small bet does not lock you into a later street small bet as well. But in THIS SPOT, with everyone flirting with a serious committment decision, chances are strong that if the HJ makes a mistake in calling your small 3bet here, he will be inadvertantly locking himself into SUBSEQUENT MISTAKES by going all the way.

So in this spot, you may really BENEFIT in terms of your overall chances to win the pot by allowing the HJ to play his hand correctly. If you act purposefully to induce a mistake, as you should do as often as possible in a heads up pot, that mistake may leave extra over cards in the pot that will realize their full chance to beat you by getting to the river.

So I have to stand by my statment that this seems a push or fold spot to me. Chasing the extra value which might be had from the HJ chair should not be your primary concern here, as attempts to extract that may well leave you with an un-wanted race facing 3 over cards instead of 2 if the HJ makes that mistake you'd want to see heads up agaisnt him. If our hand here were AA or KK, then yes, I'd be more in favor of a small RR, but with JJ Morton's Theorem is going to trigger for us when there is a BIG chance the HJ will have to go all the way with his hands afte making a pre-flop mistake that we THINK we want.

See?

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 08:01 AM..
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 09:36 AM
(#6)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
well, i dont like allowing the limper to limp for 200 and win 6468+ after I shove when I just have JJ and only 8076 in chips. And when I am almost chip leader at the table.

Also, I feel on this hand there is a higher than average chance of getting it all in with multiple opponents, given the stack sizes around the table, so in a sense there is a higher likelihood that AKQ will crush you on the flop,at this preflop desicion point, and with the hand more likely to be multiway regardless of what you do , it is more likely you will face hand combos containing A's K's and Q's. The allin here is superfluous and dangerous, imo

i mean, look at it this way. I am ready by raising to commit to either the BB or the raiser's stack but I am not happy playing for the HJ's stack, at this point given the high chance there could be multiple opponents I would rather lose 2600 then 6468 or 3778

I do like taking the extra information in a spot like this. I dont like a shove here given the action and the stack sizes.
But I see what you are saying JDean about making the most in the long run in certain situations by making your opponents make the correct desicions, however I guess the correct play for JJ here is to rr smallish, never to shove, if JJ continues at all.

Last edited by rule110; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 11:11 AM.. Reason: can't spell
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 01:06 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
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In this one, I'd have flatted the raise preflop. JJ is a very good, but beatable hand.

However, when I hit a set on the flop, I'm definitely shoving the flop.
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 01:44 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rule110 View Post
well, i dont like allowing the limper to limp for 200 and win 6468+ after I shove when I just have JJ and only 8076 in chips. And when I am almost chip leader at the table.

Also, I feel on this hand there is a higher than average chance of getting it all in with multiple opponents, given the stack sizes around the table, so in a sense there is a higher likelihood that AKQ will crush you on the flop,at this preflop desicion point, and with the hand more likely to be multiway regardless of what you do , it is more likely you will face hand combos containing A's K's and Q's. The allin here is superfluous and dangerous, imo

i mean, look at it this way. I am ready by raising to commit to either the BB or the raiser's stack but I am not happy playing for the HJ's stack, at this point given the high chance there could be multiple opponents I would rather lose 2600 then 6468 or 3778

I do like taking the extra information in a spot like this. I dont like a shove here given the action and the stack sizes.
But I see what you are saying JDean about making the most in the long run in certain situations by making your opponents make the correct desicions, however I guess the correct play for JJ here is to rr smallish, never to shove, if JJ continues at all.
If 2600 were not 32.5% of your stack I'd agree 100%. I'd agree with you up to probably a RR of 2600 representing aobut 20% to 25% of my stack...that is an amount I CAN fold to a limp/4Bettor, even though I wouldn't like it much. 33% though...ick.

My thoughts are that I do not want to give tthe HJ player a chance to make a mistake by sticking around and INCREASE the equity he might have against me on the flop.

You do have a point regarding my AQ example not really adding a lot to the threat against you. I chose that hand as it is one that a lot of micro players will limp/call a raise with. Realistically though, the equity change by letting AQ stick around is not a whole lot.

But what if the limper had a hand like T9s?

That is a very typical limp in hand for a lot of players in the HJ and later.
Your RR versus that type of holding would lay him about 1.8 to 1 for a call.
I will certainly grant that a flat of that amount would be spew-y by a limper with T9s, but you do see stuff like that all the time at the micro levels.

Obviously, the short stack is shoving or folding over you, so let's assume he shoves.

Per your stated reasoning (which I agree with), you are not loathe to play for stacks versus the shorty.
So getting UBER odds after making the directed bet at the short stack, you are going to call the 178 at the very least.
Obviously, if you flat, the limper is at least flatting too...

This sets up the scenario you are trying to get really by avoiding an action which allows the limper to play perfectly against you, right?
A) You have the short stack raiser all in.
B) You've avoided risk of max stack loss to the HJ in case he had limped heavy to induce the BB short stack to shove.
C) You've gotten deeper into the HJ's stack in case he is on less than you (induced a mistake you WANT)

So all around, pretty ideal for you...

Now the PROBLEMS as I see them for you here:

1) You've created a dry pot.
Those situations, assuming each player with a live stack in the hand understands the concept of implicit collusion in dry pot situations, greatly increases the play-ability of draws. while a draw which gets there is not going to derive implied odds vlaue, the fact that more often than not the pot will check down gives that draw essentially FREE CHANCES to make a pretty strong hand. That is not good for a holding like JJ, which more often than not will remain a single pair hand all the way through the river.

2) You've traded what is probably good equity pre flop, for a decent chance of seeing far LESS equity on the flop vs. the HJ player.
Middle suited connectors will flop an 8 or 9 out draw+ (about 35% equity v. you, depending on if the draws are multi way), or 2 pair+ (a decent sized favorite over you) right around 25% or 26% of the time. You have about 82% equity pre flop versus T9s (~78% v. 67s, also a possibility). Do you want to risk that 1 time in 4 you are going to allow your opponent to roughly DOUBLE his equity against you by allowing him to stay in the pot? Do you want to risk that chance when it is going to be an uber easy shove for him on an 8 or 9 out draw after putting more than 50% of his chips into the pot?

Do not get me wrong, I understand your reasoning totally: HJ could be limping a hand he has ZERO INTENT to fold, and JJ may not be very good versus that hand.

My AQ example was really not good tbh, as if you knew that was his holding after you put 32.5% of your chips in, your are more than happy to let the HJ draw for all his chips on a 6 out draw the 42% of the time your JJ is an over pair; if the shortie wins, you still have a good shot at stacking HJ to re-coup losses on a favorable flop for JJ since HJ would be so deeply invested he probably has to call on a 6 out draw. and if an over does come to your JJ with HJ still in, you can release with as little a loss as possible. I get that.

I also get that without info, it is really REALLY hard for us to have a real idea what the HJ limper is doing with his goofy limp.

And I even get that a 2600 raise SHOULD fold out a lot of 2 over card hands the HJ limper might hold as readily as the all in would.

I have to fall back on these thoughts though...

A) 32.5% is a LOT of your stack to raise/fold.
...and that is the minimum you can raise. The money is just too shallow to like that, and I'd much prefer treating my JJ like 66 and mucking it without any further investment, to a small raise that puts me at that level of investment.

B) The ODDS for a call are too attractive too allow a fold if the HJ ships anyway.
Can we really fold off 32.5% of our chips comfortably when we are getting at least 2.9 to 1 on a call, or when we might be getting as much as 3.65 to 1 on a call?
We'd have to put the HJ on ONLY JJ+ (not AK at all) to pass up that price, as even an "any gr 1" 2.1% range would lay us break even odds (with the 3.65 to 1 price we are good to go even if we know it a 2.1% range). If we cannot pull the trigger with those odds, we are far better off mucking without any investment that only finding out after we have put in 32.5%.

C) Can we risk that WE make a mistake after investing 32.5%?
(I'm sure we both recognize that we are way off in theoretical land here Rule110, and that in the original post we really do not have a ton of info. To me the crux of what we are discussing now boils down to this question here though.)

I am assuming your intent in raising small is not to induce a shove by the HJ (since you said the reason you do not like a shove is that you do not want to play for stacks with him), but rather to FOLD if the HJ ships. To me, the small raise you suggest exposes us more to an HJ shove, and poses us a trickier question if he does go for it; a goal in your actions should be to SIMPLIFY your decisions. If we immediately move, we end our decisions; we might be WRONG, sure, but to me the biggest mistake in poker is not being wrong, but rather it is putting a large portion of our chips at risk and then folding off ANY chance to win. That is what we'd be doing if we raise small with the intent to fold. To me, it is far better to live or die NOW with a hand as strong as JJ, than it would be to put more in then fold. If we cannot do that, then we should probably just treat JJ like a middle pp and fold without any more investment than our SB.

One thing you HAVE opened my thinking a bit too is this:

If we flat, yes we can muck to a HJ ship.
But my reasoning at the start for not flatting is that you may lose the short stack's value on a lot of flops, either on the 57/58% of the time an over comes w/o you holding a set, OR by seeing an action killer type of flop that the shortie is not going to fire on.

Personally, I was looking on this as too passive really, but your input regaridng not wanting to play for stacks without some info against the HJ has changed me a bit.

I'm not saying I still do not like a shove (I think JJ is strong enough to warrant it), but if there is ever a spot you can say a call is a "powerful move", this may be it. The short stack moving that large amount of his stack in lends us enough power to think that we do NOT need to raise at all to iso much of the time. If HJ limped lite, he probably has to fold without us 3betting at all. If HJ limped heavy, then he probably has to raise to iso to drive us out of the mix, and we can fold a lot cheaper that either a jam or a min raise.

So I think I may be changing my mind to JWK's way of thinking, and favoring the flat over the insta jam here...

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 01:48 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 03:01 PM
(#9)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Very interesting reading, and the review of Morton's Theorem didn't hurt either.

 
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Tue Dec 06, 2011, 03:02 PM
(#10)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
I still think flatting is the worst option if you decide you are going to play this hand here. It is too passive with a hand as strong as JJ. and a flat here gives the HJ good odds to call with all sorts of hands--this is not what we want. by flatting, are you folding to any flop bet the raiser makes? if one over comes, if two overs come? If three come? I think that would be really weak. Committing over 10% of your stack and then folding with JJ to someone with only 19bb would be an awful result,,,so here I much prefer a small rr as this commits you to the raiser's stack, but not to the HJ's stack. Also, flatting and then having to fold to a HJ ships sucks because , again, you investing over 10% of your stack and then folding pre--very weak/passive with a hand as strong as JJ.

and I don't like an AI here given the stack sizes, the HJ's limp, and the likelihood of this being a multiway pot regardless of what you do. I don't think Morton's theorem applies here, though I'm open to being wrong.

I still think a small rr is the best option as it is aggressive, it isn't reckless like an allin would be, seeing as the HJ could have anything, and also because the BB is so short he will be calling with all kinds of hands here. a small rr says to the HJ "hey, I got something here. You wanna play for stacks?" If his answer is yes, then you can reevaluate given your read of this player. If the HJ calls, which would be unlikely as he should shove here if he has something to play with, then you get to see a flop for 2600 instead of 6468 as is the case when he calls your jam, and you get the benefit of added information to make a choice regarding the rest of the HJ chips, instead of allowing him to almost freeroll you, when he limps, for 80% of your stack.

The other option not much discussed here is folding, probably because JJ is the 4th best hand in holdem. After thinking it through, I don't feel a fold here is all that bad. An ai rr is called by hands that mostly crush you here, like QQ, or you'll be flipping. and given the chances you will be seeing this pot multiway, JJ doesn't stand a good chance to win, less then 40% three handed, i would guess, if the multiway action is reasonable, ie. includes hands like AA-99, ak, aq, aj, KQ. KJs, maybe QJs, as making up the bulk of your opponents ranges. You're in good position here with over 8000 chips, maybe you can find a better place to get your money in.

Last edited by rule110; Tue Dec 06, 2011 at 03:04 PM.. Reason: mistakes
 

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