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NL2 FR set of aces on wet flop.!

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NL2 FR set of aces on wet flop.! - Mon Dec 05, 2011, 12:10 PM
(#1)
UrGetinTaxed's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 189
hey .
first hand iv sent in here so hope it works....
I hit a set of aces here on the flop , anyway villian donks quite small (i never had stats on)
and i think QK hits his range here perfect especially as i raised a bit more coz of the limper ,so i decide to raise (for information aswell as more value), i wanted him to fold tbh as he could have had a smaller flush draw aswell , although i had the ace.i wasnt to sure if i was ahead here or behind.
Anyway he folded and i couldn help but think i should have called here and try n get all hi s money of him, but if he had called my bet i still wouldnt know where i stood, and i would have had to bet turn 2/3 aswell....and still not know , maybe im just been to carefull here im not sure .Should i have got more money here.?

 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 12:19 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
In this hand, I cannot really say whether you might have gotten more. Your flop raise was a bit larger than it really needed to be, but it was not excessively large.

The villain here could easily have hand a hand with almost no value (like a gut shot straight draw only), and in that case would probably have been willing to donk bet (see definition below) a tiny amount to "block" you from betting in case you missed entirely and were willing to fold, but he may have been un-willing to call ANY raise. There isn't a lot you can do in that case to extract more value, unless you are willing to slow play your top set and increase your risk of loss as well.

COULD you have done that, yeah maybe. But if the Villain donk bets and shows a willingness to put some money in NOW, there is really not a ton of reason NOT to think he might be willing to call more.

So I do not know if your bet here was good in terms of getting you max value or not...

Let's break it down...

Pre Flop your actions are fine.

On the flop though, when I read your reasoning for sizing your raise as you did, I see a couple of things:

Why do you want him to fold if he drawing?

You flopped the 2nd nut hand with your set, so yes there IS 1 hand that is ahead of you.

But when the villain donk leads (donk betting = lead betting after calling a raise oop) why do you want to blow him out of the pot if he has a draw?

If the villain does hold a KQ here, do you think he is folding, ever?

So in effect, by making a "scared" bet, one designed to get WORSE hands than yours to fold, you are making it possible for the opponent to make a correct decision with his hand per the Fundemental Theorem of Poker (see link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker ). If he holds the 1 hand that beats you, you lose MORE, and if he folds a draw, you do not win as much as you might had you bet to get him to call. This costs you value.

If you hold a hand you probably think is best, and you do not see any valid reason for slow playing, then the last thing you want to do is "value own" yourself by making a raise that will only tend to get called by better and fold out worse.

In spots like these, your goal should be to bet to DENY ODDS, but INVITE A CALL from a draw.

Denying odds with your raise sizing is a simple matter of mathematics:

A 9 out draw (flush draw) has roughly a 19% to hit on the turn. As long as you bet enough to deny odds of 4 to 1, you are betting enough to make a call negative EV for just a flush draw. If the villain calls anyway, he is making a mistake under the Fundemental Theorem of poker.

If he has a flush draw with a K or Q though (13 out draw), he has about a 28% chance to hit the turn for either a straight or a flush. As long as you bet enough to prevent giving a price of about 2.6 to 1, you are denying odds to that 2 way draw.

A raise making it about 20c to go here will surely be enough to deny odds to even a 13 out draw, as the villain is getting only about 2.4 to 1 to call (14c to win 48c) when he needs 2.6 to 1, see?

It is a lot trickier to determine the "inviting" part though...

If the villain is willing to call a LARGER bet than 20c to go, you have no reason NOT to put more in if you think he is behind, right? That means whether a bet is inviting can be very opponent specific.

The key thing to try avoiding though is making your bet TOO LARGE, as a bet that is too large becomes less inviting, and is more likely to lead to the villain playing his hand exactly as he would if he knew what your cards were.

Reasons to Bet in NLHE

Betting solely for information is a FLHE concept as the structured betting in that game allows you to risk smaller amounts for very specific puposes. Example:

Let's say you are playing FLHE, and the BTN raises your BB and you call to take the flop HU with K2.
The flop comes A 8 2.
You check bottom pair.
BTN BETS.

You could fire a check raise here in order to gain information about whether the BTN was simply C-Betting, or whether he had truly flopped the A he is representing. If he makes it 3 small bets to go, you can be pretty certain you are beat and fold cheaply now. If he flat calls, you can be pretty sure he is on a pp at least, and as all those pp would beat you, you can then check/fold the turn if you see no improvement.

So in that game, the cost of "information" is cheap, and the information can be highly effective at saving you future bets.

In a NLHE situation though, because the bet sizes can vary, if the villain leads out for a 1/3rd pot bet and you C/R THAT, depending on the depth of money he might move in on you with a semi bluff shove, he might have the hand he is representing, He may flat call then check behind on the turn to induce you to bet or call a river bet, or any of a myriad of possibilites. At any rate, the lack of surety about the SIZE bet an opponent might make at any time does not give the same sort of clarity from a bet for information as in FLHE...see?

In NLHE, there are really 2 main reasons to bet:
to bluff (get a better hand to fold) and to extract value.

All the other reasons to bet:

Betting for protection
Betting for information
Betting to gain the initiative
Betting to Isolate
Block betting

Are all off-shoots in one way or another of the main 2 reasons, and not stand alone reasons in no limit.

So in reality, in this spot any info you gain from your bet is really a subsidiary result of betting for value on the 2nd nut hand. If you view the information which comes from what SHOULD be a value bet as the primary reason for making the bet, then you can lead yourself into seeing "monsters under the bed" if you get raised.
in stead of betting with a prime goal of gaining info, recognize that ANY bet you make for any reason will give you information, as long as you are working to apply the info you get...see?

Finally...

On Slow Playing versus Raising NOW

I started this long spiel off by saying there is no real reason not to raise immediately. In truth, top set on this sort of board can really go either way. In "The theory of Poker" David Sklansky out lines some "rules" for slow playing. Those rules are:

1) You must have a very strong hand

(you do here, the 2nd nut)

2) The free or cheap card you give by slow playing must have a good chance of making the opponent a 2nd best hand

(this is marginal here. The flop is such that if he has something he probably has very little shot at improving without improving to a flush or straight. those hands are not 2nd best to your set.)

3) the same free or cheap card you give must not have a good chance of making someone a better hand than yours, or even give them a good draw to a better hand than yours.

(this is not here at all. if you held a boat it would be, but with a possible str or flush card coming that could beat you or at least give the villain a shot at a draw for a chop, uh uh)

4) you must have a good chance of driving all opponents out of the pot by showing aggression, but you have a good chance of winning a big pot if you do not.

(the blocker bet by the villain here seems to indicate he might have a piece here, so he may well call a bet now. unless he has a BIG piece tho, about the only way you will create a large pot here is if he is very bluff-y, or unless he improves. so this isn't really present either unless you have a player specific read that you did not communicate in your original post.)

5) the pot must not already be very large

(it isn't very large here in relation to the effective stack when you raise, so this condition is present)

So of the 5 requirements to slow play, you only clearly have 2. You have reason to believe the villain might at least call SOME raise amount after he lead bets, so there is no real reason not to force him to call a raise to keep playing. As long as your raise sizing is not designed SOLELY to drive him out of the pot, the sizing you choose is really based on what the villain might call if he holds less.

So as I stated at the start, your raise was not SO big that it would have caused him to fold a flush draw immediately if you had seen the villain was loose enough to chase. If he has no real value though, about the only chance you have of getting more value from him would have been to let him try "catching up". With cards that could come to beat you, this is a risk to your good hand, and if he DOES out draw you, your hand strength is great enough to possible cost you a good amount. There is nothing more expensive in poker than a very good, but 2nd best hand.

All in all, I think you played this hand just fine.

I hope I didn't over load you too much here, as this post has run on a long time, even by my verbose standards. I do think there are some concepts at work you might want to think about though, and I tried my best to flesh those out for you.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 05, 2011 at 03:00 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 01:19 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
With a straight possibly already out there, along with a straight, flush or combo draw... you need to raise their donk bet on the flop. That donk bet looks like a blocking bet (which probably rules out the combo draw) and I'd tend to put them on some sort of straight draw.
I also like the bet size, because it is enough to price them out and if they elect to draw to a hand better than your set, then I want them to be paying more than what the equity of their hand is (as JD states when he talks about pricing them out).
 
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Mon Dec 05, 2011, 04:43 PM
(#4)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Definitely like the raise on the flop you made. Big pots are for big hands, and you have a big hand. Build the pot. If he flopped a straight when you flopped top set, then so be it. Even if that happened you would still have a decent amount of outs going to showdown.

A 'donk bet' into you on that flop doesn't really represent a flopped straight anyways. He could have that hand sure, but it is unlikely. It is more likely he has a much weaker hand than that. Since you beat everything else try and maximize your value. If he has a flush draw, 2 pair, or straight and flush draws, he is calling your raise for sure.
 
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Tue Dec 06, 2011, 04:07 PM
(#5)
idodgedeuces's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 25
Yeah, what JD said!

I would have played it the same, not sure I would have enjoyed it if he'd shoved over the raise but I think you have to get it in if that happens. Thats what top set is for, even on a board like that, unless the guy is a complete nit and only gets it in with the nuts. But you need a solid read to make a big decision like that.

I don't think there was any more money to be had here, there are worse hands that can call but he obviously didn't have one.
 
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Tue Dec 06, 2011, 05:12 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Definitely raise for value, flatting is terrible, you want to grow the pot not keep it small. And there are a lot of turn cards that if they don't beat you, are action killers. This is a case were slow playing is most certainly sub-optimal imo.

Dave
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 05:42 PM
(#7)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
And there are a lot of turn cards that if they don't beat you, are action killers.
Dave
Amazingly good point Dave. For some reason I have a hard time thinking that way, but that seems really important when trying to plan out a hand to the river.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 05:55 PM
(#8)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Hello urgetintaxed! I agree with evry1 that the villain’s donk lead looks like a blocking bet with some kind of draw, sure it is possible he has the goods ”KQ” and is trying to make an odd play there, so we won’t rule that one out. I would surely rr the opponent’s donk lead to deny him the odds to call if he’s on some draw, and for info as well (only if I am certain that the villain is not super aggressive and will try come over the top and semi-bluff me with a draw). If he flats my rr, I’m still not really sure where I’m standing as he might be slowplaying the nut straight or still on a draw or a pair, etc. The villain’s turn action is decisive. I still wouldn’t be happy to call a shove with the second best hand. The only way I knew that I was beat is if the opponent is a rock and only gets it in w/ the nuts and he comes over the top. Right then, I would comfortably make a fold. As JDean said, there is no point in rr big if your opponent has KQ, he’s never folding and u loose more. ----->

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Why do you want him to fold if he drawing?

You flopped the 2nd nut hand with your set, so yes there IS 1 hand that is ahead of you.

But when the villain donk leads (donk betting = lead betting after calling a raise oop) why do you want to blow him out of the pot if he has a draw?

If the villain does hold a KQ here, do you think he is folding, ever?

So in effect, by making a "scared" bet, one designed to get WORSE hands than yours to fold, you are making it possible for the opponent to make a correct decision with his hand per the Fundemental Theorem of Poker (see link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker ). If he holds the 1 hand that beats you, you lose MORE, and if he folds a draw, you do not win as much as you might had you bet to get him to call. This costs you value.

If you hold a hand you probably think is best, and you do not see any valid reason for slow playing, then the last thing you want to do is "value own" yourself by making a raise that will only tend to get called by better and fold out worse.
-JDean
If on the other hand he’s got something like KJ (inside straight draw) or a flush draw, or both, your ¾ to full pot rr is good for protecting your set and denying odds. JDean’s review is certainly worth reading as it explains each of these concepts in full detail. (I just read in his review that a c/r for info is very usual in FLHE but not so effective in NLHE!) I’m still in the never ending learning process.
You didn’t do this, but the worst option would be to call his donk lead as u r not charging him to stay in the hand to see the turn card. Slowplaying trips on an extremely wet board is reckless as you risk getting outdrawn by ur opponent. I still don’t think u could stack him, because it’s a very scary board and I doubt he will try to chase without the right odds unless he’s very loose. However it is possible he could get very aggressive and try to bluff u off the pot on ur first sign of weakness or on the river after a busted draw or after a scary card comes (in which case I’d only call if he is a known bluffer).
Keep posting ur questions on PSO. It’s a great place to learn!
Peace out
 
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reply - Tue Dec 13, 2011, 10:54 AM
(#9)
UrGetinTaxed's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 189
hey thanks all.!
I was busy there for a few days ,but glad to see such a good response , had a good read of all answers , gonna go over this one again by jdean , and will play some hands later and try find some other spots where im not too sure about , I dont seem to find many these days but im probabaly way way wrong lol.! ..defo listening too what you guys are saying anyway. cheers.!
 

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